Avoiding the Drop

Not to put too fine a point on it, but when it rains over at the Emirates lately Noah starts thinking about building another Ark. Saturday’s rain-soaked loss to Liverpool was no exception; after a toothless attack, another injury, and another sending off, Arsenal have now drawn and lost their opening matches of the season and have yet to score a goal in the Premier League. Additionally, they’ve now got two centerbacks out injured, three midfielders suspended, and are a theoretical transfer of Samir Nasri away from being without a creative force in their midfield. Not only that, but the loss to Liverpool – a rival for fourth place this season – is one that could later come back to hurt him; Liverpool and Arsenal are likely to be neck and neck at the end of the season, making the games they play against each other extremely important to their chances of making the Champions League next year.

So, before he’s potentially knocked out of the Champions League on Wednesday, let’s review what went wrong against Liverpool and what Wenger can perhaps do to fix it before the Gunners match up to Udinese.

First, let’s talk about what went right: for all of the critics of Wenger’s defense, it wasn’t until Arsenal were down to ten men that they finally succumbed to Liverpool. Actually, to be fair, that’s not even the right way to put that; it’s not like Arsenal were under constant pressure throughout. They had Liverpool mostly managed; Andy Carroll couldn’t beat Thomas Vermaelen in the air, and Emmanuel Frimpong was doing a nice job handling the midfield, carving out a space like a pit bull on a leash. Even Samir Nasri looked good; the game was clearly headed for a scoreless draw before Frimpong’s pivotal sending off.

Trouble is, that sending off was a surprise to absolutely nobody. Frimpong, who spent 70 minutes breaking down Liverpool’s forward momentum, was also flirting with his second booking for 62 of those minutes; the final moment, which could have been a straight red, was as inevitable as it was avoidable. Regardless of how well the kid was doing, he was clearly a bit unhinged; at some point, Wenger should’ve brought him off. And yes, I realize that there was nobody to put on his place, but that’s kind of the point.

See, this all goes back to Wenger’s management of the Arsenal roster. He’s not managing Birmingham, and trying to paper over cracks without any real funding. He’s managing a Champions League team that’s supposedly one of the most financially stable teams in the league, and one that’s just benefited from the high-priced but inevitable sale of their playmaker superstar midfielder; there’s money to spend (or, at least, it’s claimed that there’s money to spend).

Today, Wenger’s come out and complained about the perception that he’s stubborn:

“Maybe people feel I am stubborn, but I am not, I just want to do the best for the team and buy the right players. If I have shown one thing in the last 15 years, it is that I have bought good players. We will bring as well experienced players, but people just say ‘buy’ – but it is to buy the right player which is difficult.”

And he’s right, he has had a good record with who he buys. He’s also, however, had some misses.

Let’s step away from Wenger, actually, and go to someone else that likes to get good value for players: Billy Beane. Beane’s situation isn’t similar to Wenger’s (for one, Wenger actually has money), but they’re of a similar heart. Beane – methodically – has five rules for player acquisitions; let’s just talk about the first two.

“1. No matter how successful you are, change is always good. There can never be a status quo. When you have no money you can’t afford long-term solutions, only short-term ones. You have to always be upgrading. Otherwise you’re fucked.

2. The day you say you have to do something, you’re screwed.  Because you are going to make a bad deal. You can always recover from the player you didn’t sign. You may never recover from the player you signed at the wrong price.” (Moneyball, p. 165)

You can almost hear Wenger saying those things, but it’s the first part of that second rule that’s important right now. Based on injuries, transfers, and suspensions, Wenger actually has to do something. He has to go out and pay over the odds for a guy who won’t fit immediately into his team. He has to either sell Nasri or risk the possibility that he’ll lose him on a free at the end of the season. He has to figure out his centerback situation right now. And everyone knows he has at least £35 million to spend, which only forces those transfer prices higher. When Beane talks about recovering from the player he didn’t sign, he’s not talking about going without a pitcher and a center fielder because he didn’t make the move early enough before the deadline.

What’s probably most frustrating for Arsenal fans is that this has been coming. It was widely understood that Fabregas was leaving this summer; that transfer should’ve been wrapped up in May and kept quiet until July 1st. Last summer, you could’ve locked Samir Nasri down to a contract; instead, nothing was done. This summer, you could already have Chris Samba, or Gary Cahill, or Phil Jagielka, or whomever it was that you wanted; instead, Arsenal gets to trot out Ignasi Miguel in a crucial match against Liverpool.

Wenger’s now moving to bring in Yann M’Vila from Rennes, and that’s a good signing; the kid’s supposedly pretty good (although if FM’s a source to go by, he picks up his fair share of silly yellows if played as a defensive midfielder in a 4-2-3-1). But that signing could have happened back in July, too, using the potential Fabregas money to finance it. Then there’s at least some cover when Frimpong’s flipping out. The same thing can be said for centerback, which seems to be getting thinner and thinner by the day. But Wenger’s done nothing about those positions; his bench was weak because he hasn’t planned, and he has nobody but himself to blame for his bad day on Saturday.