Avoiding the Drop

Last Year’s Record: 19 wins, 11 draws, and 8 losses got Arsenal 68 points last year; in spite of the fact that only one team lost fewer games (Manchester United), Arsenal finished three points behind both Manchester City and Chelsea in fourth place. They were knocked out of the Champions League by Barcelona in the Octofinal, knocked out in Round 6 of the FA Cup by Manchester United, and – perhaps most painfully – lost the Carling Cup final to Birmingham City.

Transfers (In): Gervinho (Lille, £10.56 million); Carl Jenkinson (Charlton, £900k); Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (Southampton, £12 million)

Transfers (Out): Gael Clichy (Manchester City, £6.8 million); Denilson (Loaned to Sao Paulo, £600k); Jay Emmanuel-Thomas (Ipswich, £1.1 million); Jens Lehmann (Retirement)

Transfers (Pending): Cesc Fabregas (Barcelona, rumored to be between £35-40 million); Samir Nasri (Manchester City, rumored to be around £25 million)

Season Outlook: It’s a cliched, oft-repeated statement that the definition of insanity is continuing to do the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Nobody doubts that Arsene Wenger – a master of youth development and often a pillar of rationality in the footballing world – is a smart guy. The “genius” moniker is often assigned to him, and Arsenal fans in the past have an almost cult-like devotion to his practices. But if he was a genius in the past, he’s surely morphed into a mad genius, an evil scientist who’s spent the last few seasons monologuing only to watch his creation destroyed by the ill-advised inclusion of a self-destruct button.

This year looks to be no different. As I’m writing today, I’m also hitting the refresh button on The Guardian liveblog of today’s transfer activity, which has become just as much about Arsenal fan catharsis as it has about actual transfer news. For all intents and purposes, it would seem, Arsenal are about to sell captain Cesc Fabregas to Barcelona, completing a two year saga that nobody involved in has handled well. For all of the complaints of tapping up and price gouging, this transfer is not a surprise and could’ve been planned for; the fact that Arsenal has forced themselves into a situation where they’re selling off their captain the day before the season is only their own fault.

The loss of Samir Nasri, too, was rumored back in May; Arsenal botched this last season (albeit more quietly) by not extending Nasri’s contract, giving the Frenchman all the leverage in the transfer conversation. Arsenal could either break their hallowed wage structure to keep him, sell him now, or lose him and get nothing out of it next season; this was a completely foreseeable problem, and yet Arsenal once again procrastinated on a decision and did nothing. This is also their fault (although one could argue that the signing of Gervinho will mask Nasri’s loss).

While losing Fabregas and Nasri presents new needs, it also reminds everyone that there were other, older needs to manage. Arsenal’s frailty at the back has been long documented and discussed; Thomas Vermaelen’s return from injury (he’s like a new signing!) will address some of that need, but he’s injured again at the moment and there’s no telling how he’ll recover in the long term from a season on the sideline. Goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny showed flashes of quality, but the depth behind him is shaky and he’s young; a veteran addition could’ve been helpful there as well. That’s not to mention that there’s still some need in the midfield for a more stalwart figure to shield the shaky back four. All of those problems have become almost a recurring yearly litany; you know them, I know them, and pretty much everyone else knows them too. The only person who seems to, stubbornly, not acknowledge them is Wenger.

So now Arsenal are left with a potential £60 million in the bank but nobody to buy. Arsenal’s need notwithstanding, Valencia have closed the Juan Mata shop; had Arsenal sold Fabregas earlier in the season, or made an approach without the Fabregas money, he perhaps would’ve been available, but now that we’re on the season’s doorstep they aren’t interested. Other targets – Phil Jagielka, Scott Dann, Gary Cahill – carry with them the English price premium, plus a “the season’s about to start and you want our best centerback NOW?” hike, which Wenger almost assuredly won’t pay. In all likelihood, the majority of that money will sit in the bank.

That begs the question, then: what happens to Arsenal? They were frail last season, winning only two games past February, and there hasn’t really been a significant change to their squad that makes me think they’ll do better (especially not with a Fabregas-sized hole in midfield). They have – as always – some young talent coming up, but the Premier League is unforgiving to young talent; you CAN win with kids, but not when they’re all unproven, and not when the manager doesn’t lead and motivate them.

See, management is really two parts: it’s the tactics and the transfers and the economics on the club side, but it’s also the relational ability to motivate players who, really, have already been given their incentive. It’s pulling aside a striker making £250,000 a week and reminding him that, salary notwithstanding, you’re his boss and you need him to perform; whether that’s screaming at him, manipulating him, or coddling him, whatever gets him to do the job he’s being paid to do is up to the manager to figure out and employ. When Manchester United are down by two at halftime, I don’t think they’re out of it; it’s the “Ferguson factor” that Fuse wrote about earlier today. Conversely, when Arsenal are up by four, you can’t count on three points. Those results – the late season streak of two wins after February,  on some level, come down to management as much as having a balanced budget or playing the transfer market do.

Given all of these factors, I see a rough season for Arsenal. The teams in front of them (City and United, at least) have either gotten better or stayed good, while the teams behind them (Liverpool, specifically) have improved; fighting for that fourth spot will be challenging, and from where I’m sitting they’re not up to that task. I’m going with fifth for Arsenal, ahead of Tottenham but behind Liverpool.