Avoiding the Drop

The day is nearly upon us.  Every four years the countdown to the World Cup culminates in an orgy of three-games-a-day madness for the first week and a half.  Then it’s four a day.  Then it slows down to two and one a day.  After four years of waiting, when it comes, it seems like it will never end.  But as short of a time ago as South Africa hitting the post at the death against Mexico seems, the greatest tournament in sport is nearly complete once again.  Soon we will be faced with four long years of “Countdown to Brazil” apps and stories about how woefully unprepared they are to host.  But for now we are slaves to only the rhythm.  Wait no, I meant for now we still have one mammoth game left.

As is the tradition around these parts we’ve put together a bit of a roundtable discussion on the tournament itself and the approaching final match.  So sit back and enjoy our take on the tournament that somehow is nearly done and dusted, and the crowning of a first time winner of the FIFA World Cup.

The Tournament Thus Far

Question 1: Which team most exceeded your expectations?

Fuse: I might not like their defensive style, but it for me it has to be Paraguay.  Their form in CONMEBOL qualifying gave a clue of what they could do, but I personally didn’t think they could go as far as they did with what they have.

Kevin: New Zealand…did anyone expect them to go undefeated?

Two Yellows Equal Red: Japan was much better than I gave them credit for. They looked relatively dreadful against England in the friendly, at least moving forward.

Magnakai Haaskivi: Uruguay, hands down. I don’t think I even had them getting out of their group, and yet they’ve got a decent shot at being in third place. I completely didn’t see that coming…and I definitely didn’t think they’d be the best performing South American team in the tournament.

Georger: Germany.  I had them getting out of the group but I honestly did not think they would be able to get far with such a young team. I didn’t trust Klose and Podolski to do it again, and I was wrong.  If they can produce one more striker to partner Mueller long term (I’m sorry but Gomez is pants) this team is going to be right up there for the next six years worth of tournaments.

Adam: Uruguay was the biggest surprise to me, they did have the “easier” of the brackets to get through, but you don’t just get as far as they did in the World Cup by being decent.

Question 2: Which team was the biggest disappointment?

Fuse: France.  I don’t think anyone expected them to win the tournament but to implode in the way that they did is just not something I saw happening.  I think Laurent Blanc is going to have a lot of work to do if he doesn’t want to see the same thing happen at EURO 2012.

Kevin: North Korea – they opened “strong” against Brazil but imploded after that.

TYER: France

Mags: I really, really, really thought that both Italy and France would shake off their terrible form and pull themselves together. That didn’t happen.

Georger: Serbia.  They made me look stupid and they played below their potential.  On the bright side it did cement Vidic as the most overrated player in the game I think.

Adam: I’m gonna go crazy and say Spain. Yes I realize they’re in the final, but I really thought they’d be doing much better than to barely win all their games (except Honduras) I had them in the final with a good chance at winning it all, but I didn’t think it’d be such a struggle for them.

Question 3: Who is your standout player of the tournament?

Fuse: Diego Forlan.  With apologies to the rest of the Uruguayan team (many of whom impressed me as well), there was no other single player who was as instrumental in his team’s success as Forlan was.  For those who have been judging him on his mediocre tenure with Manchester United (and I’m a bit guilty here), he’s not the same player- not by a long shot.

TYER: Diego Forlan did a lot more at this tournament than I would have ever expected.

Mags: At this point it’s hard not to say Wesley Sneijder, but we sort of expected that out of him so that’s not terribly surprising. Diego Forlan’s also had quite a tournament.

Georger: Just so we don’t all say Forlan, I’m going with another Latin American with United connections: Javier Hernandez. He impressed the hell out of me and that is not good. He plays for the club and country I despise the most (on the soccer stage, don’t worry Mexico you’re far down that list).  The kid is going to be a star.

Adam: Michael Ballack. Without his injury I don’t think we would have seen Germany do nearly as well. They Germans should throw that man a parade. (More serious answer: Forlan)

Question 4: Which player was the biggest bust?

Fuse: Kaka.  Teams shut down Messi, but he still seemed able to adjust his game and be a contributing factor in Argentina’s success.  Kaka just plain disappeared.

Kevin: Anelka… he is the face of what is wrong with French soccer right now.

TYER: Fernando Torres. He looks out of sorts and wishing to be anywhere but where he is.

Mags: Kaka, Wayne Rooney, or Fernando Torres. All of them were awful during this tournament.

Georger: Torres has always lived in Villa’s shadow for Spain so I’m not going with him. I’m going to go with Marek Hamsik.  He will be kicking himself that he didn’t move from Napoli earlier, because he really hurt his stock.  He was a complete non-factor and let his team down.  Skrtel should be given the captaincy, from watching the Italy game it was clear who the leader of that team was.

Adam: Torres has been hurt, Rooney’s problems weren’t as related to him as they were related to how Capello used him, but Kaka really sucked. He’s been going downhill for a little while now. He used to be an absolute game changer and something just happened to him that has made him rather pedestrian.

Question 5: Which player is most likely to see their value skyrocket in this summer’s transfer market due to their performance?

Fuse: Asamoah Gyan, Ghana.  He had a great tournament and probably deserves to move on from Rennes, but I don’t think he’ll have the kind of impact at his new side that he had at the World Cup.

TYER: Forlan.

Mags: Lukas Podolski; his form for Germany’s been pretty good, but people forget how badly he plays at the club level. He’s like the German Jozy Altidore in that regard.

Georger: Luis Suarez.  Not so much the value, but the teams willing to pay the price.  Ajax seem to want around 40 million pounds.  Before the tournament that was laughable considering he could have been the next Alves or Huntelaar, but he dominated with Forlan and his finishing was fantastic.  I think he proved himself against solid competition, which he had yet to do with the world watching.

Adam: Pretty much everything Georger said about Suarez. Also there was some above average goal keeping happening, which I’d put on the new ball not staying down, so I could see some guys going for decent money.

Question 6: So far, what has been your favorite moment?

Fuse: It has to be Landon’s goal against Algeria, but the end of the Uruguay-Ghana match is a close second.

Kevin: Completely homeristic but I still love watching Donovan’s goal against Algeria.

TYER: Not going to lie, I’d say Landon Donovan’s goal against Algeria.

Mags: Landon Donovan’s goal against Algeria; to go from out of the tournament to winning the group right at the death like that was fantastic.

Georger: Tough to pick but based on the atmosphere I’m going Dempsey’s goal against England.  Watching it in the bar in NYC the USA fans were stunned after Gerrard scored and it was looking all England.  Then boom, we’re right back in it.  The combination of disbelief from England fans there and the elation of our fans tops it for me.  Plus jumping on Norfolk Ned’s back and screaming “GREENO! GREENO! GREENO!” played a part.  And because I watched the Donovan goal in the student union at school surrounded by math camp kids (who got a crash course in four letter words up until that goal).

Adam: Donovan against Algeria. I really hope some of the soccer haters in the US watched that game, because there’s no way any other sport provides that much drama.

Question 7: With four years of build-up and hype, has the tournament met your expectations?

Fuse: More or less.  I could have done without the officiating “issues,” but otherwise it was fine- I’d give it a B.  A great final would obviously change my opinion for the better.

Kevin: This World Cup has been one of my favorites. It looks to me like the world-wide soccer talent is beginning to level out as the professional leagues/teams are more and more international. I think this World Cup will be the one that ends the “dominance” of a handful of nations. In the future I think there will be more teams like South Korea and Ghana making deeper runs into the tournament.

TYER: Mostly. I wish certain teams that I’m invested in had done better, but other than that, yeah, it’s been good.

Mags: I’ve really enjoyed this World Cup; to be 100% honest, it’s the first one I’ve followed in-depth since ’94, so I don’t really have a measuring stick to go by…but it’s been a blast. Definitely met my expectations, especially with a final that has two of my favorite national teams playing against each other.

Georger: Yes it has but I still think it will be topped by 2014, for me anyway. I think not having the games on in primetime hurt it a bit for my taste just because I missed some games due to travel and school.  In Brazil it will be basically an EST competition so we will get lots of late afternoon and night games.  It will be more conducive to group viewing I believe.  Great tourney so far?  Absolutely.  Best?  Not quite.  Also I figured there would be massive crime and violence issues, so that was a good thing to be wrong on.

Adam: It’s been good despite it’s issues. It’s been entertaining because theres been a lot of “changing of the guard” so to speak. Teams like Italy and France were pretty much guaranteed a spot in the knockout stages every tournament. That’s changing and I think 2014 will be really good.

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The Final

Question 1: With a tournament somewhat marred by horrid officiating, will a referee meltdown by Howard Webb be the straw that breaks Sepp’s stubborn back?

Fuse: Not a chance.

Kevin: Possibly..if the game is tainted by an uncounted goal (think England/Germany) I could see FIFA and Sepp Blather Blatter investigating goal line technology for the 2014 World Cup (and maybe having it in place for 2022). But I don’t foresee them adding referees or doing anything about judgment calls like off-side or handballs…

TYER: Yes. It would be a disaster if Webb makes a huge error.

Mags: No; FIFA needs to come to the decision on their own, not be forced into it by circumstance. We’ll probably have some form of replay within five years; a controversy here won’t accelerate or decelerate that timeline.

Georger: Yes. But not because of Sepp.  I think it will take the collective federations giving FIFA an ultimatum to make changes to the refereeing system.  Oh you don’t want to review bullshit handball suspensions? Fine, France, Spain, and England all refuse to play in Euro 2012.  The federations need to get tough with FIFA (after the next WC is awarded).

Question 2: Will this year’s installment top the 18 million viewers who watched the 2006 version in the USA?

Fuse: No.

Kevin: Initially I thought yes, but then I started to think about the last few days driving to and from work. ESPN radio has not mentioned or hyped the final that I can remember. (All LeBron/All the time.) I can only think of one commercial and that was for a viewing party at one of the casino. This may turn out to be a bust for ESPN…

TYER: I think it will surpass that number, although ESPN’s focus on other things towards the end of the week will maybe hurt that number for those casual people who might forget it’s Sunday.

Mags: I think so; this World Cup’s been more interesting than the last (i.e., the U.S. went further and were more engaging), with less of the negative play that plagued the 2006 version. More people are watching soccer in general now, too, which makes the final a bigger draw.

Georger: I think so, for the same reasons that Mags stated.  I think around 21 million will be the number.

Question 3: Are you surprised that either team is here? Is it a matchup you would have wanted?

Fuse: Surprise? No.  Both had the potential to do as well as they did.  Happy with the matchup?  Yes.  I think it will be a better match that Germany-Netherlands would have been.  I’m also happy that both sides had to make it through at least one powerhouse team to get here, that way they’ll be no talk of either side having an easy road to the final.

Kevin: Maybe a little surprised that the Dutch made it past Brazil, and very much looking forward to Sunday’s match.

TYER: More surprised with Holland than Spain, because I thought Brazil would be there. Should be a real styles clash, I think.

Mags: As above, I’m thrilled with the matchup; I actually think this was the matchup I picked for the “Unprofessional Foul” contest, too. I’m pulling for Holland to win (they don’t need another chokejob in the Finals), but I’m happy either way.

Georger: I’m actually more surprised that Spain is here than Holland, because I still don’t think they have played their best and figured it would catch up with them by this point.  I’m happy for it, but I would have preferred Germany/Holland.

Question 4: Who are you pulling for?

Fuse: Spain.

Kevin: I will be cheering on the Orange.

TYER: I’m remaining neutral and hoping Howard Webb doesn’t make England look even worse.

Mags: Holland…but I’m okay with a Spain win, too. Historically I want Holland to finally win one; this is their third final and their due. Spain’s already surpassed every other Spanish team’s performance, so getting this far is already a success.

Georger: Hup Holland Hup!

Question 5: Who do you see as the key player for each team?

Fuse: Andres Iniesta, Wesley Sneijder.

Kevin: I guess David Villa is the easy pick for Spain. With Holland, I’ll go with Sneijder, but would accept an argument for someone else…

TYER: For Spain – Xavi. For Holland – Wesley Sneijder.

Mags: For Spain, it’s really not one player; it’s going to come down to how well the central midfield can play together. At times, the Xavi-Iniesta-Alonso grouping has seemed a bit too clever for their own good, and that’s a big problem against a Dutch team that will break their passing rhythm up as often as possible.

For Holland, it’s Sneijder. For all the pomp and circumstance about Robben, Sneijder’s the one whose going to be tasked with preaking open the Spanish defense and creating either goals or chances.

Georger: Iker for Spain.  He has not had a good tournament overall (and Pepe should be starting above him anyway), and I think he is going to struggle with the dead ball specialists that Holland has.  His positioning has been weak and Robben and Sneijder could exploit that.  Robben can score from anywhere, and with this ball, I don’t trust Iker to read it.

Sneijder for Holland.  Or whoever is coming up the left flank at any time.  Holland’s entire pre-game meeting should be this: run at Ramos all day long.

Question 6: Who is a potential darkhorse impact player for each team?

Fuse: Xavi, Maarten Stekelenburg

TYER: For Spain – David Silva. For Holland – Rafael Van Der Vaart.

Mags: For Spain, it’s Busquets; if he plays like he did against Germany, than Sneijder might never see the ball…but the rest of his tournament’s been a little shaky, and if he reverts back to that form than it could be a long day for Spain.

Similarly, de Jong’s role in the Dutch midfield could be key; de Jong will need to press the hell out of Spain’s creative triangle, and avoid getting sent off while doing so (which can be tricky against Alonso)

Georger: For Spain, Alonso.  In the Germany game he came close several times and had several good balls into the box.  He is peaking in the tournament at the right time.

For Holland, Dirk  Kuyt.  He has been their most consistent player, which is not surprising (work rate!).  However he has also been one of their most influential players.  This team does not track back and tackle well outside of De Jong and a few others, but Dirk provides that from wherever he is on the field.

Question 7: Should Fernando Torres start on Sunday?

Fuse: No.

Kevin: No.

TYER: Yes.

Mags: No. He’s not fit, hasn’t been for awhile, and is getting worse with each appearance. Pedro, on the other hand, looked good…and with Holland deploying five midfield players, the extra body might do them a lot of good.

Georger: It depends.  If they want to bench him for Silva or Cesc, then I don’t have a problem with it.  He looked much better off the bench the other day and I think it’s just a fitness issue.  But considering he does not historically play well with Villa I think it might be best to use him as a halftime sub if they’re down, or later if it’s level.  If it’s for Pedro? Absolutely not. That selfish punk cost Torres the chance to get his confidence back, and would not pull the trigger in the box earlier in the game, deciding instead to just do a bunch of stepovers.  His decision making was horrible and he has no business starting the final.  When Pep gets fired for losing the league to Real this year and takes over Spain for Euro 2012, sure, Pedro can start.  But right now Torres over Pedro.

Question 8: What are the strengths and weaknesses of the teams based on the matchup?

Fuse: I hate to give up my prediction before the next question, but I think most of the potential weaknesses come into play for the Netherlands.  They are the team prone to diving (Robben), rash challenges (de Jong), and relying on individual virtuosity rather than team play.  If Spain even play close to their potential and the Netherlands don’t, this match can only go one way.

TYER: Spain’s patience and timing is their best strength. Their weakness is overall team speed, which will be a huge advantage for Holland. For Holland, their best strength is their ability to adapt and attack from all over the pitch. Their weakness would be lack of experienced players all over the pitch but this is not a major disadvantage.

Mags: Spain’s strength is their midfield; their weakness is their lack of goalscoring options. Practically every goal for Spain has come from Villa; if something goes wrong (or if he gets shut down), that can be problematic. As well as Spain did on possession against Germany, Germany had Villa pretty much under control; if Holland (who’re as big and tall as Spain) can play disciplined defense, there’s no second option for Spain unless the midfield suddenly remembers how to score. Which is possible.

The problem with that is that Holland’s defense sucks.They haven’t kept a clean sheet in four games, and I’m anticipating this game being a one-goal wonder; that could bite them in the ass. The Dutch strength, really, is the same as Spain’s, but their midfield really isn’t as impressive.

Question 9: Who takes home the FIFA World Cup Trophy?

Fuse: Spain.  2-1.  Villa, Silva, and Robben.

Kevin: Coin toss, but I think Spain will win based on teamwork rather than individual glory.

TYER: Spain 2, Holland 1. Goals from Xavi, Torres and Robben.

Mags: Spain, probably 1-0, probably a Villa goal.

Georger: Holland.  3-2.  Robben, Dirk, Van Persie.  Xavi, Ramos.

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So it seems I’m the lone believer in War Plan Oranje.  Hopefully I’m right, we will find out Sunday.  It has been one hell of a tournament and we have enjoyed covering it for you guys.  Enjoy the game, and your clams.