Avoiding the Drop

For the past six summer transfer windows Steven Gerrard has been rumored to be on his way out of Liverpool.

Each summer since Torres arrived Chelsea have been soooo close to signing him.  According to Harry Harris (I hate him if you cannot tell) and the Daily Mail anyway.

Before Mascherano even belonged to Liverpool he was rumored to be on the way to other clubs.

With the exception of Gerrard to Chelsea in 2005 and Mascherano to Barcelona last summer, these rumors have been flat-out lies.  The British media has an active intent to undermine Liverpool Football Club and of course doing so drives paper sales (I’m talking about them aren’t I?).

But now, the rumors cannot be ignored.  The club is in a transition period.  We are broke.  Our owners are heartless criminals.  We are in the European NIT.  We have a new manager.  We can’t find our damn keys and are late for work AGAIN.  It has all gone wrong the past eleven months.

Losing all three of these players would be catastrophic for the future of the club.  Sure it would bring in over 100 million pounds in transfer fees, but Broughton cannot be trusted when he says that money from sales will goto the transfer kitty.  He could be telling the truth, but I don’t want to take that chance with all three.  Most likely the situations will not be resolved until all three are back from the World Cup and holiday, but let’s look  at whether each could actually leave in the coming weeks, and how irrationally I will react to each player’s departure.

Javier Mascherano

This one is relatively easy.  I believe that Masche will go.  He doesn’t want to be in Liverpool by most accounts, he loves Rafa, and he wants a better contract.

The only stumbling block is going to be price.  Rafa slapped a price tag on him last summer of somewhere between 30 and 50 million pounds.  He should go for around 35.  Barcelona cannot afford him unless they plan on being in Liverpool’s situation in a few year’s time.  Inter probably can afford him.  Especially if they move someone like Balotelli (smug kid keeps demanding a transfer in my St. Pauli FM10 save).

Masche has often spoken about his loyalty to Liverpool, the club not the city. But he also pissed us all off with the Barcelona talk.  But Inter look the more likely destination at the moment.  He owes his career to Rafa.  If Rafa had not rescued him from his West Ham nightmare, he probably is not the Argentine captain and one of the most highly regarded CDMs in the game.  Someone else would have come in for him, but Rafa saved him, so in the real world he owes it all to Rafa.  I would not hold it against him to want to go with Rafa.  He would be great in Italy.  The talent is not as strong as in England (even though he did just fine shutting everyone but Tevez down while in England) and the referees would not target him like they do in the EPL.  It would be a smart move for him.

Personally he has struck me as a bit of a crybaby the past two seasons, but I still like the guy.  I’m just tiring of his act.  Play great –> I want a transfer –> doesn’t get transfer –> plays like crap –> “Liverpool til I die” –> play great –> repeat.   He is an undoubtedly world-class player and has an incredible passion for the game.  Still, he is the most easily replaceable of these three.  Without spending a dime too.  That’s right, his replacement is Lucas Leiva.

One of the biggest problems last season was Lucas being too close to a CDM to take over the Alonso role.  He doesn’t have the passing technique yet to run an offense.  But anyone who watched him this year (not including those who refuse to acknowledge him) knows he made huge strides in his defensive game.  I believe he could slot right in.  At the same time, if the central defense stays healthier this season there will be less pressure on the CDM position to be the strongest vertebrae in the squad’s defensive spine.

Pushing Lucas back would allow for Aqua and Gerrard (or his replacement) to be further up.  Lucas kept Aqua out of the squad not for his passing abilities, but due to his consistent and sound play, which we know is right in Rafa’s wheelhouse.  If Masche goes, I cannot see Roy keeping Lucas higher up and bringing in a new starting CDM when you have one already.

I wish Masche the best and I am 100% certain he is handing in his transfer request (if he has not done so already).  I would say he is definitely gone but with price being the sticking point I would say he has an 80% of leaving this summer.

Adios El Jefecito.

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Steven Gerrard

Gerrard is coming off the worst season of his career.  Liverpool were a massive failure.  England were an all too typical failure. And he was the leader of both.  He is 30, he is not winning the EPL title with Liverpool in the next year, so of course the rumors say he is going to go join his BFF Jose in Madrid.

From the standpoint of wanting to win a league title, it makes sense to make this move.  He has a better shot abroad than he does in England.  Even if he moved to Chelsea or City it’s still a four to five race horse in England.  If you move to Real you have a 50/50 shot of winning the league.  But will doing so really help his legacy? I say no.  Did Beckham winning a La Liga title really do anything for his legacy?  If Gerrard won the league with Liverpool he would get the credit for it. I don’t see that happening on a team like Real, and with a manager like Jose.  Those Chelsea titles are Jose’s, not Lampard and Terry’s.  Gerrard does not take well to being pushed aside, or as it were, being put in the corner.  He will be just another star at Madrid, not THE star.  Goodbye talisman status.

From a financial standpoint, getting above 30 million pounds for a player who is 30 is usually a good move.  Especially when their form is struggling and they have had injury problems.  That being said, I don’t want him to go.  I think he can thrive again under Roy, especially if Aqua sees around 40 games this season.

It is hard to say where he would fit in with Real but I’m sure he would love playing with Xabi.  Still, if he does push for the tearful reunion, it will be just as bad as a Basque suiting up for Franco’s squad.

Why? Because a large chunk of that seventh place finish is firmly on Gerrard’s shoulders.  Simply put: he played poorly for most of the season.  Sure he was injured several times, but even when fit he did not look quite right.  Maybe his mind was on England, but something was off (and not having a true midfield maestro behind him did not help, thanks G&H!).  If he played anywhere near his 2008/9 form this team is in the Champions League.  Again it needs to be said: as horrible as the team was this year and as depleted as the roster was, they were still in the fourth place hunt until the end.  A talisman is supposed to be the difference in your squad.  He was not that this season.

I hate speaking of players owing anything to a club, but in this situation, I believe Gerrard owes Liverpool one more year.  He needs to try to make things right.  That’s what a leader does.  They don’t quit after the situation gets dark, especially when they played a role in dimming the lights. If he goes to Madrid, it will be a complete cop-out.

But I don’t think he will leave.  Until two days ago I was completely sure he was gone.  Earlier in the summer he did say he would see out his current contract with Liverpool (an interview which went completely unreported in the press outside of the BBC I might add).  He was asked if he would be there next year and he said yes because he has a contract and he will see out at least the end of it.  That was the last he spoke of Liverpool, this was back in May.  After that he kept saying he would not talk about it until after the World Cup.

Well, for ten days after the World Cup he didn’t say a damn word about it.  But he did have the courage to say he would not quit England, but not whether he would quit the club.  But then it all made sense: he was waiting to meet with Roy.

Now we still haven’t heard it from Gerrard, but Roy is confident Gerrard is staying and gave him no indication he wanted to leave.  Now he could be wrong of course, but I don’t think he is.  Thus far Roy has handled the PR aspect of his job perfectly.  He has said all the right things and carried himself perfectly, giving the fans what they want to hear.  He knows he has to win the trust of the supporters, and that isn’t going to happen if he comes out and says he is confident Stevie is staying, and then he leaves.  That would be a disaster for Roy and his credibility would immediately take a hit.  In theory he must be confident to make that statement, especially when knowing how desperate the supporters are to hear something about the situation.

I think that if Masche leaves and Roy actually can use the funds it will be enough to convince Gerrard to stay for another year.  If after next year there is no improvement, then sure, good luck to you Steven.

I put his leaving at 25% if Masche leaves or money comes from elsewhere. If Roy has no money to spend, 75%.

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Fernando Torres

This one would hurt the most.  Not only because of how often Torres speaks of loving life in Liverpool or worrying about staying in England long term, but because if he moves to Chelsea this summer it will make him a liar.

Torres said he will give Liverpool one more season to show they can build a contending squad. He said this when we were really down, to go back on it now would be inexcusable.  He is young enough where one year of not having Champions League soccer is not going to kill his shot forever.

Part of the speculation on where he would want to move is more money.  Torres took a pay-cut to move to Liverpool and established himself as a classy guy in a world of Adebayors and Joorabchians.  If he flips on that now, any notion of innocence I have left in the sport will be dead and he will have killed it.  Do you really want that blood on your hands Fernando?

At the same time there has been no word from Chelsea that they are pursuing him.  In fact, Carlo has said that they are not looking at him for now and that they have two strikers already.  They just gave Anelka a new deal and Drogba isn’t going anywhere. Do they bench Anelka when he has been a success in Chelsea’s system?  Torres does not historically play well with other strikers.  Crouch, Keane, and Villa have all proved difficult for him to partner with.  He has been his most successful and prolific playing as a loan striker with a roaming midfielder right behind him.  He can play in any league, but I don’t see how he fits into this Chelsea squad.  Would they really make a move for him as a plan for the future?  I can’t see that happening, especially when he has said he doesn’t see himself staying in England forever.

This is a guy who was an LFC fan before he came.  His armband said he was a Red and all that.  This is not like Yossi.  This would be hands down the biggest betrayal in LFC history (Owen was dead to us already) and second only to Sol’s epic middle finger to Spurs.  But Torres does not seem like the kind of guy to do that.  This isn’t a guy who is out there banging models and buying yachts.  I want to believe that he is different from the Ashley Coles of the sporting world.  I want to believe all the rumors are completely fake, which is what his agent has said.

You said you would give us one more year.  Do the right thing, just like you have done with every professional aspect of your life thus far. If next year we’re no better off, you can move to Spain or Italy.  But you are not moving to another team in England, especially not Chelsea.  We’ll talk next summer.

I think we’re looking at a chain reaction here.  I don’t think that selling Masche would piss off either Gerrard or Torres.  Getting the cash from that sale would be enough to invest in the squad to the point of making them happy right now but not for the long-term.  New investment must come in or they are both gone this time next year.  But in the meantime the squad needs to be improved to the point that they can challenge for a top four spot for sure, and maybe make a push higher.

I think he is 30% to leave this summer and the only thing that would push him over the edge is Gerrard leaving AND having no cash.  He seems too honorable to pull what the media says he wants to do.  Next summer? If we’re out of the top four, he’s gone without a doubt.  And honestly he may only play another two or three seasons in England anyway.  I believe he will end up with Milan at some point, but I do not believe he will end up at Chelsea this summer.

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I think we have seen the end of this trio making up the spine of the Liverpool squad.  But I do not believe we have seen the end of the Torres and Gerrard partnership for Liverpool.  Not for now, anyway.  Roy has to do this just right, and he’s got the deck stacked against him in some aspects.  But it is certainly feasible to keep Torres and Gerrard for now, but we may have to let Mascherano go to make it happen.  I can live with that.