Avoiding the Drop

There will be a time when we look back on the buildup to this USA/England World Cup match and think about how seriously we all took it, how much we hoped our various rooting interests would be fulfilled and how amazing it was to consider the match tactically and from a historical standpoint.

I hope we actually remember the match.

Let’s break it down:

Goalkeepers: USA – Tim Howard, England – David James (probably).  The only area where the USA has a true decided major advantage is at the goalkeeping position.  While David James is certainly experienced and canny, he is hardly the threat he once was.  He has been worn down by playing for a sinking club, he has gone through major stretches of being injured, and at one point was widely considered to not be going to South Africa.  Yet, here we are with him again.  Tim Howard is truly at the top of his game right now and to put it mildly, covers up for a sometimes-leaky defensive corps.  Howard comes into this tournament realizing that he must be a rock for the USA to move forward and unlike James, I believe that he has that ability.  I think this comparison is the one where I would put a huge check in the USA column and put x’s and o’s and stars and smiley faces and whatever other advantageous icons I could.

Defenders: Likely starters – USA – Steve Cherundolo, Oguchi Onyewu, Carlos Bocanegra, Clarence Goodson, England – Ashley Cole, Ledley King, John Terry, Glen Johnson.  This matchup is not as nearly one-sided as some would have you believe.  The USA’s defense has been an issue, especially on set pieces.  The overall health and ability of Oguchi Onyewu to defend against balls in the air is certainly a question.  Carlos Bocanegra is playing a bit out of position as his preferred position is interior and not on the wing.  Yet, the England defense is certainly questionable, especially without the presence of captain and leader Rio Ferdinand, out with injury.  John Terry and Ashley Cole have both been through tremendous personal upheaval in the last calendar year, Ledley King is a huge injury risk, and Glen Johnson’s turning abilityto track back is certainly always an issue.  There is a tactical advantage with England because they know how to move the ball forward and are better on the ball overall.  The USA defenders have apparently been taught to put the ball up in the air to escape panicky situations, but all that does is lead to lack of true possession of the ball.  I hate when they get into that mindframe of just lumping it up in the air without actually trying to escape danger by using their ball skills.  Overall, I give a slight advantage to England here.

Midfielders: Expected starters – USA – Landon Donovan, Clint Dempsey, Jose Francisco Torres, Michael Bradley, England – Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard, Aaron Lennon, James Milner.  Again, despite what you’ve read, I believe the gap here is not that great.  This is the USA’s best overall position, and while they are behind England in terms of talent and ball skills, it’s not a huge advantage for the English.  I put Torres in the list for the USA because I desperately hope as someone who wants to see a great match that he plays.  He’s worth the price of admission.  I’m not a huge Michael Bradley fan, but his skills have grown as he’s progressed and he’s much more solid than he once was.  There isn’t much more to say about Dempsey and Donovan other than this is their World Cup, along with Howard, as the USA’s senior and best players.  Dempsey, in particular, is poised to show the world how much his skills have developed.

For England, the midfield is always about whether or not Steven Gerrard (the new captain) and Frank Lampard feel like playing with each other.  Both essentially play the same role for their club teams, and neither seems to be willing to concede ground to the other.  Capello seems to get the best out Gerrard, so we’ll see how that works out today.  Aaron Lennon provides pure speed and craftiness, but really isn’t a threat to score at all from the wing, he’s strictly out there for playmaking.  Milner probably wouldn’t be starting if Gareth Barry were match-fit, but he can certainly play.  He’ll be out there to put the clamps on Landon Donovan and move the ball forward and at pace.  Milner is a good choice in Barry’s absence.

Ultimately, this is probably advantage England, but I’d say it’s less than “pronounced”.

Forwards: Expected starters – USA – Jozy Altidore, Robbie Findley, England – Wayne Rooney, Emile Heskey.  Rooney is one of the top five players in the world right now, so this is advantage England.  Altidore is certainly not a polished article, and Findley was very much a surprise inclusion (as were the other USA strikers, so regardless of who starts, this paragraph holds true).  Heskey is not necessarily a threat, but he’s the best partner for Rooney so it’s likely he starts today over Peter Crouch and Jermain Defoe.  This is advantage England.

Coaching: USA – Bob Bradley, England – Fabio Capello.  Advantage, England.  Bob Bradley’s substitution patterns and game management have been in question from day one.  Capello has brought England back from the brink of mediocrity to go undefeated through qualification.  While his preparedness has been in question at times, he’s got the advantage here.  The biggest issue with Bob Bradley is that he can actually lose the USA the match, where Capello has not been known for that.  I’ll take Capello all day every day in this match.

Overall: England 2 – 1 USA.  I feel like both teams will score, it will be fast-paced and tactical, and England’s overall strength and ball skills will out.  However, I said last night and I’ll say it now, this match is not a walkover by any stretch for England, and if the referee is of a mind to call a fair amount of fouls and stop play often, it’s advantage USA.  I feel like it will take a bit of times for both teams to get their legs, but England has been starting slow lately, and a stop-start-stop-start style match will not help them in that regard.  The USA must stay disciplined and keep their wits, and must hope that Bradley gets things right with substitutions.  England must use their advantages to the utmost, and they must force the USA into set piece defending.  Obviously, Rooney must keep his head.  Can the USA win?  Absolutely.  This side has beaten decisively the number one team in the world just a year ago.  Could England blow the USA’s doors off?  Absolutely, if things go horribly wrong along the back line.  I think England wins, but I think it’s close, tight and exciting.

Enjoy it everyone.  I’ll be back tomorrow with thoughts.  I would bet that some of the boys will be online today during the match, I’ll be on twitter during the first two but out for USA-England.  Have a great day.