Avoiding the Drop

1950, 1993, 2010?

South Africa v. Mexico (Friday)

Were this match being played anywhere else at any other time I’d pick Mexico to win convincingly. However, it is the first match of the World Cup and the Bafana Bafana are playing at home. For that reason, I don’t think there can be a true upset in this match. If Mexico win, well, that’s to be expected. If South Africa win it could be called an “expected upset” because of all of the intangibles at work in this situation. For that reason, I think we’re going to see a draw- 2-2 sounds about right to me. Whatever the outcome of this match I believe that Everton’s Steven Pienaar will be the best player on the pitch. Fun Fact: There are more South African players (3) in the EPL than there are Mexican players (2)- not something I would have expected.

Uruguay v. France (Friday)

Not only is this going to be a closer match than you might expect, but I think that there’s every chance that Uruguay could win it. France does have more talent (though the gap is not as big as you might think), but the team has been, to put it mildly, in “disarray” for months. Also keep in mind that France had to go to the second round of UEFA qualifying (and then to extra time in the second leg against the Republic of Ireland) in order to ensure qualification for South Africa. My prediction? Uruguay 2 France 1 and Diego Forlan scores the winner. Could you name you name France’s starting goalkeeper without consulting the internet? No, I couldn’t either. That can’t be good- unless you’re Uruguayan. Fun Fact: France coach Raymond Domenech is crazy, tinfoil hat wearing crazy.

South Korea v. Greece (Saturday)

This might be the one match of the first weekend that doesn’t fill me with excitement. Neither team is going anywhere in the tournament and neither team is known for its “flair.” I think this is South Korea’s match- they have the graft to shut Greece down and Park Ji-Sung has the ability to create his own opportunity and, more importantly, capitalize on it. I going to say 1-0 to South Korea. As for Greece, their European Championship seems like it was a lot more than six years ago, doesn’t it? That team was not one filled with stars, but even so, this team features two uncapped players and five others with 10 or fewer international appearances. Fun Fact: South Korea is one of the most experienced teams in the tournament, 17 of the 23 players have at least 20 caps and two have over 100!

Argentina v. Nigeria (Saturday)

Given the nature of Diego Maradona’s reign as national team manager I’m sure supporters of La Albiceleste would have preferred an opening match with Greece or South Korea where their technical ability could have carried the day for them. Instead they drew Nigeria, a team that is big, physical, fast, and perhaps most worrying, has enough scoring punch (Yakubu, Kanu, Martins, etc.) to keep Argentina “honest.” Having said all of that, if Diego puts anything close to the “correct” 11 on the field they have the ability to turn this match into a route. Remember, for all the drama surrounding them, the names on the jerseys still say Messi, Heinze, Mascherano, Veron, Tevez, etc..  I say 2-1 Argentina. Fun Fact: Every member of the Nigerian team plays in Europe and they all play in their respective country’s top division.

England v. U.S.A. (Saturday)

Chances are that if you frequent this website this is the match that you are going to be glued to above all the others this weekend. I can’t pretend that I’m impartial where this match is concerned, so I’m going to try to justify my partiality the best I can. England, I think, will score first and probably through Wayne Rooney. This will force the U.S. to attack and I think that is where this team is at its best and where I think England are at their worst. I’m going to give Clinton Drew Dempsey the nod for the first U.S. goal and the second- and winning goal- to Josmer Volmy Altidore who I think will come on as a second half substitute for Edson Michael Buddle. Fun Fact: If Landon Donovan plays to his potential is this World Cup- no matter how the U.S. does- I will never call him “Landycakes” again.

Algeria v. Slovenia (Sunday)

Were it not for the implications for England and the United States, I don’t think I could generate any interest in this match. In the end, I think a draw is the best thing that could happen in this match. By taking only one point out of this match one of these teams is going to have to either beat both of the favorites (the U.S. and England), or earn draws with both of them. I don’t think that is going to happen, however, I see Slovenia winning. They are battle-tested and have just a bit more quality. Or, if you’d like to look at it a different way, more than half of Algeria’s roster has 10 or less caps. They are too young and too inexperience- Slovenia will grind out a 1-0 victory. Fun Fact: Slovenian forward Zlatko Dedič and Algerian defender Antar Yahia are teammates at VfL Bochum in the Bundesliga.

Serbia v. Ghana (Sunday)

This is going to be a much better match- and a much closer match than many people think.  Serbia probably has the stouter and more experienced of the two back lines, led by Manchester United’s Nemanja Vidic and Chelsea’s Branislav Ivanovic, but they are going to need it.  Ghana have the ability to score goals out of both the midfield (Appiah and Muntari) and from the front line (Amoah and Gyan).  In the end, however, I think that Serbia’s experience and the ability to close out matches they displayed in winning their qualification group will see them through- 2-1.  This result and at least a point against Australia will probably be enough to see Serbia advance into the round of 16.  Fun Fact:  I hope that karma comes calling for Serbian defender Neven Subotic just like it did for Giuseppe Rossi.

Germany v. Australia (Sunday)

Believe it or not, I think this has the potential to be the most lopsided match of the opening weekend- even with Michael Ballack injured for Germany. Australia are a decent side, but I think they are the kind that can hang with Germany for the first 45 minutes– not the kind that will be their at the end. Basically, I think this match is going to change as soon as the two managers go to their benches. I would not be surprised to see this match even at the half (probably 1-1) and for Germany to then pull away in the second half. A final score of 3-1 sounds about right to me. Fun Fact: In the twelve months leading up to the World Cup Australian coach Pim Verbeek capped 67(!) different players. Germany’s Joachim Löw gave only 40 players a chance to make his final squad.