Group G has been referred to as a “group of death,” and not just because it contains North Korea- I kid, Dear Leader, I kid!
When this group was drawn last December it contained two very strong teams- Brazil and Portugal- one team full of potential- Côte d’Ivoire- and one unpredictable team- North Korea. Only one thing has remained constant since then- Brazil are still going to win the group. Everything else is just that much more “up in the air.” The Côte d’Ivoire has lost Didier Drogba (or maybe they haven’t!), Portugal have lost Nani, and North Korea attempted some roster hi-jinx and now essentially find themselves down a keeper and a striker! Read on for all the gory details…
COUNTRY: Brazil, A Seleção (The Selection)
MANAGER: Dunga
BEST PREVIOUS FINISH: Brazil have won the World Cup on five previous occasions, 1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, and 2002.
HOW THEY QUALIFIED: 1st place, CONMEBOL.
KEY PLAYERS: Júlio César (GK), Maicon (D), Lúcio (D), Dani Alves (D), Kaka (M), and Luis Fabiano (F).
MISSING PERSONS: Ronaldinho (not selected), Adriano (not selected), Cafu (retired), Roberto Carlos (international retirement), Ze Roberto (international retirement), and Juninho Pernambucano (international retirement).
COMMENTS: Had any other national side lost the amount of talent that Brazil has since the 2006 World Cup or left out two of its “best” players, it would be shocking for the team to even be considered “competitive,” much less a “favorite.” But this is Brazil. My one-time assistant coach (who was half-Brazilian and half-French) once suggested to me that there were enough world class Brazilian players to field somewhere between three and five national teams that would be competitive on the world stage. He’s probably right. Of course, when we had this discussion Brazil was still playing o jogo bonito- that is not the case anymore. The “new” Brazil is very much in the image of its coach- strong, industrious, efficient, and with more than a bit of a hard edge. There are still players on the roster who can dazzle with their skills- as anyone who say Grafite’s goal for Wolfsburg last year will know- but this is now a team where the goal of winning has eclipsed the desire to entertain. Of course, should Brazil fail to win (or fail to come close to winning!) this new approach will likely be condemned and “Samba Soccer” will return when Brazil hosts the World Cup in 2014.
PREDICTION: Brazil will reach the final, but for the first time they will not win it.
My prediction is that they will meet Spain in the final and I think this is the year for Spain. The ironic thing is that Brazil- with all of its new graft and efficiency- may lose to a team whose recent successes have come while playing something very close to “the beautiful game.” Yes, Spain are the team that the USA beat 2-0 in the 2009 Confederations Cup, but Spain are also the team that responded to that “humiliation” by winning all of their World Cup 2010 qualifying matches. Brazil, meanwhile, needed an 84th minute winner from Lúcio to defeat the USA in the Confederations Cup final and then commenced a World Cup qualification campaign in which they only won half of their matches, could not manage a goal at home and lost away to Bolivia (who finished second last in the group) and played two 0-0 matches against Colombia (including a home match at the Maracanã). They finished only a single point ahead of Chile and Paraguay. This is not their year.
COUNTRY: Côte d’Ivoire, Les Éléphants
MANAGER: Sven-Göran Eriksson
BEST PREVIOUS FINISH: Group Stage, 2006.
HOW THEY QUALIFIED: Winners, CAF Group E.
KEY PLAYERS: Kolo Touré (D), Emmanuel Eboué (D), Didier Zokora (M), Yaya Touré (M), Salomon Kalou (F), and Aruna Dindane (F).
MISSING PERSONS: Didier Drogba (?)
COMMENTS: Obviously my- and everyone else’s- assessment of the Côte d’Ivoire and this group’s outlook changed when Didier Drogba fractured his elbow in the team’s final tune-up match against France. At this point it looks like he will either be out of the World Cup all together or that he will be playing with a serious injury that is sure to hamper his ability to score goals for his country. Neither case is what the Côte d’Ivoire needed in one of the two groups pundits are calling a “Group of Death.” Still, with Kalou and Dindane in the mix, the forward line might be the one place that this squad could absorb a major injury. The midfield and defense are competent, but an injury to either of the Tourés, Zokora, or Eboué would weaken either group immensely. Still, it is goalkeeping that has to be the Elephants biggest concern. First choice keeper Boubacar Barry lacks size and plays for a middling team (Lokeren) in a small league (Belgium) and his two backups have a total of ten caps between them. Clearly there is a reason that this team prefers to attack rather than to defend.
PREDICTION: The Côte d’Ivoire will not advance beyond the group stage.
With Drogba at full strength I might have been inclined to pick the team to squeak by the ever unpredictable Portugal and advance to the round of 16 along with Brazil, but now I just cannot see that happening- there is no other team in this tournament that is so dependent on a single player. While the impact of Drogba’s injury on the field is huge- he Wayne Rooney, and Lionel Messi are probably the most feared scorers in the world at present- I think his potential loss as the team’s talisman is even bigger. With Drogba in the side the team always feels like it has a chance and plays up to his level. Without him, or with him at less than his best, I can see the team becoming disheartened if they give up an early goal, especially to the like of Portgual or Brazil.
COUNTRY: Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea), Choilima (a mythical Pegasus-like horse which carried an intellectual and a worker over impressive distances)
MANAGER: Kim Jong-Hun
BEST PREVIOUS FINISH: Quarterfinals, 1966
HOW THEY QUALIFIED: 2nd place, AFC Group B.
KEY PLAYERS: Ahn Young-Hak (M), Hong Yong-Jo (F), and Jong Tae-Se (F).
MISSING PERSONS: Insert your own Stalinist dictatorship-inspired “missing persons” joke here, otherwise, nobody of note has been left off the squad.
COMMENTS: There is something positively Maxwell Smart/Agent 86-ish about coach Kim Jong-Hun attempting to sneak another striker onto the team (Kim Myong-Won) by listing him as a goalkeeper and then being told by FIFA that, guess what, you’ve listed him as a goalkeeper and that is the only position he’ll be able to play in South Africa. In my head I picture Kim Jong-Hun saying, “Missed it by that much…”, or perhaps, “Goalkeeper? Would you believe, ‘trainer’?” Either way, if starting goalkeeper Ri Myong-Guk gets hurt you can be certain Kim Myong-Won is going to start looking for a side door he can sneak out. Whomever is chosen for the starting eleven I’m fairly certain that they will be the youngest and least capped (not to mention least tested against top opposition) squad in the tournament and against Brazil, and even Portugal, that could lead to some ugly score lines.
PREDICTION: North Korea will not advance beyond the group stage.
But really, who the hell knows? I don’t think anyone expected anything of them in 1966 and they beat Italy in the group stage and were up 3-0 to Portugal in the quarterfinals before losing (with the help of two penalty kicks awarded to Portugal) 5-3. The same uncertainty surrounds their best players- I chose the players above because they are the only three playing outside of North Korea (two in Japan and one in Russia). But this is North Korea, so for all I know they are not the best players, but the best players who are politically reliable enough to be trusted in foreign countries! Potential political shenanigans aside, I don’t see this being a team that can get a result against Brazil or Portugal and a result against the Côte d’Ivoire is possible, but not probable. The best case scenario is a point against the Côte d’Ivoire, the worst zero points from three matches. Either way, they’re on the first flight to Pyongyang on June 26th.
COUNTRY: Portugal, Selecção das Quinas (Selection of the Five Shields)
MANAGER: Carlos Queiroz
BEST PREVIOUS FINISH: 3rd place, 1966.
HOW THEY QUALIFIED: They defeated Bosnia-Herzegovina in the UEFA Second Round Playoffs.
KEY PLAYERS: Paulo Ferreira (D), Miguel (D), Ricardo Carvalho (D), Deco (M), Simão (F), and Cristiano Ronaldo (F).
MISSING PERSONS: José Bosingwa (ijured), Maniche (not selected), Luis Boa Morte (not selected), Nuno Gomes (not selected), Luís Figo (retired), Pauleta (retired), and Nani (injured).
COMMENTS: Is there any country-with the possible exceptions of England and the Netherlands- that has done less with more historically than Portugal? They’ve never won the World Cup, the European Championship, or even an Olympic gold medal (or a medal of any kind for that matter!). Even the so-called “Golden Generation” (Figo, Costa, Gomes, Conceiçã, etc.) only achieved a semifinal finish in the 2000 European Championships and a group stage appearance in the 2002 World Cup. This is a fairly well-balanced team (though the goalkeeping seems a bit suspect- am I the only one who has never heard of first choice keeper Eduardo of Sporting Braga?), especially along the back line and going forward and they should have no trouble with North Korea or a potentially Drogba-less Côte d’Ivoire. By the way, had Drogba not been injured, that last sentence would have ended very differently. Of course, now that Nani won’t be playing the door may have opened a little bit for the Côte d’Ivoire.
PREDICTION: Portugal will reach the round of 16.
There is enough talent available for the team to go further into the knock-out stages, but if the past has told us anything, it’s that it probably won’t happen. In fact, I’m making this prediction despite the team showing it’s ability to flame out in the group stage in 2002. I’m also making it despite the fact that I don’t think this team as talent from front to back as the last few sides I’ve seen from Portugal. I can only make two certain predictions where Portugal is concerned. First, that Chrissypants while take a free kick that- whether it goes in or not- will make you gasp. Second, that Ricardo Carvalho will make at least one “sturdy” tackle in each match. Oh, right, and their last match is against Brazil and it might decide the group!
Why Spain? Spain is the most over rated team in FIFA. Brazil continuously delivers results, Spain does not. The qualifications in CONMEBOL are definately more difficult and a better test than any of the UEFA groups. Spain played Bosnia, Turkey, Belgium, Estonia, Armenia to qualify. Not a world class test by any strech.
They waste their time with Poland yesterday, this team from players to their management is living in lala land. The defeat to the US was a real indicator that Spain has big problems after Europa and i think they will be out in the Quarters.
I will revise my inept preview accordingly: Spain winning Euro 2008 was fluke, Brazil had no trouble at all in CONMEBOL qualification, and Brazil will win the World Cup.
Brazil will also win the Highland Derby, the NAIA men’s championship, the NHIAA Boys Class “M” championship, as well a several local “travel tournaments.”
brazil for the triple crown!
Hang on a second. Since 2007, these are the games that Spain has lost or drawn:
Iceland (Euro qualififier, 1-1 draw, 9/8/07)
Italy (Euro 2008, 0-0 draw, won on penalties, 6/22/08)
USA (Confederations Cup, 2-0 loss, 6/24/09)
That’s it. They qualified for the World Cup without losing a game, they’ve only lost once since 2007, and of their two draws, one was in a tournament that they won on penalties. That’s three results that aren’t wins – two of which were draws – in a staggering forty six games. It’s frankly silly to say that the result against the U.S. was “true” Spain when it’s their only loss in three years; it’s far more likely that Spain just took a nap against a team that up to that point didn’t really look particularly impressive.
On top of that, Spain’s going to be playing the wounded weaker sister of the former group of death in the octofinal; whether Ivory Coast or Portugal go through, it’s impossible not to point out that their biggest player (Ronaldo scored exactly no goals in WCQ; Nani’s far more important to that team) is missing. They’re first real game is against what’s likely to be Italy in the quarters, where they could leave…but it wouldn’t be because they’ve been slumping since last year. The evidence doesn’t even sort of back that up.
Your facts due hold weight, except that Spain wasnt taking a nap. They were about to having the longest winning streak of any national team, and thats what the US game represented.
In that winning streak they won against some great teams, but unfortunately the lot of them are not.
SPAIN! What happened?! can’t beat the SUISS?
How can you have Portugal making the quarterfinals, and Brazil and Spain making the finals?? Only two of those teams can make it to the quarterfinals (if I’m reading the draw correctly).
Right, but doesn’t Spain have to play it’s second round match against someone from the Brazil/Portugal group? If so, my initial question stands. you could have a brazil/spain final, but you can’t have that and a portugese quarterfinal appearance.
where’d you go, Kevin?
I believe you’re right about that; Portugal can only get through to the quarters if they win Group G and play the second placed team from Group H OR if the come in second in Group G and beat the first-placed team from H. Assuming Spain wins H and Brazil-Portugal finish 1-2 in Group G, Portugal needs to beat Spain for them to be in the quarters…and if Portugal somehow wins G (or if Spain comes in second in H), than Brazil-Spain is in the octofinal.
I hate all of you math and logic people.
I’ll fix it.