Avoiding the Drop

Welcome to the first of Avoiding The Drop’s World Cup previews. Over the next two weeks we will be going group by group, previewing each country so you’re more prepared entering the 2010 World Cup.

This is one of the more puzzling groups of all the World Cup. Both Mexico and France are traditional powers, but have both had difficulties in recent years. While South Africa isn’t really considered a very high quality team, they are the host nation, so they could gain a little momentum from the home crowd. Finally, Uruguay isn’t thought of in the same vein as Brazil or Argentina, but they’re still a powerful team that can’t be taken lightly. When it comes down to it, almost any combination of teams could advance out of this group.

Country: South Africa

Manager: Carlos Alberto Parreira

Last World Cup: 2002, 3rd Place in Group B

Best Overall Finish: 2002, 3rd Place in Group B

How they qualified for South Africa?: Qualified as hosts

Key Players: Aaron Mokoena, Benni McCarthy, Steven Pienaar, Teko Modise

Missing Persons: Mark Fish, Shaun Bartlett

Comments: South Africa looks like they’ll have a tough time getting out of the group, however the fact that they’re the host nation could mean the vuvuzelas could lead them to a shock result or two. Even with the crowds behind them, this will be a tough group for South Africa to get out of. It’s possible, but they’re probably going to be playing the spoiler role more than fighting for a spot in the next round. South Africa are on a nine match unbeaten streak, however they haven’t exactly played any world class teams in that run, only two of the nine (North Korea and Paruguay) are headed to the World Cup.

Scheduling a rather cupcake schedule like that could be harmful as the team could wind up finding that they’re lacking in preperation. The true test comes on June 5th when they face Denmark, if they can keep up with Denmark, they’re probably right where they need to be, however if they get blown out, this could be an ugly World Cup for them.

I would expect Benni McCarthy and Steven Pienaar to be the keys to the squad, they’ve both got the most big game experience at a high level.  If they can help create chances, and the team gets a few lucky bounces, they could take a surprise result or two.

Prediction: As cool as  it would be to see South Africa advance to the round of 16, I just don’t see it happening. They can certainly steal a win away from someone, but unless France channels their 2002 squad and can’t get anything done, I just don’t see it happening. Even if someone lays an egg, they still have to squeeze out a draw against one of two strong teams. South Africa just isn’t strong enough to get two good results. As a consolation, I think hosting the World Cup will result in more kids playing the game down there and in 10 years or so South Africa could be on par with the elite African nations.

Country: Mexico

Manager: Javier Aguirre

Last World Cup: Lost 2-1 to Argentina in the round of 16

Best Overall Finish: 1986, Lost 4-1 on penalties in the quarter finals to West Germany

How they qualified for South Africa?: Second place in CONCACAF

Key Players: Rafael Márquez, Andrés Guardado, Carlos Salcido, Gerardo Torrado, Guillermo Franco

Missing Persons: Omar Bravo, Jared Borgetti, Jonathan dos Santos, Juan Carlos Valenzuela

Comments: The first thing one might notice about Mexico’s 23 man roster for the World Cup is the fact that there are only 3 midfielders. Which is rather strange considering if one goes down with an injury Mexico will have a rather tough time filling in the hole. Expect Gio Dos Santos and Rafa Márquez to take places in the midfield occasionally, and surely others will be up to fill holes when needed. Mexico did play a 5-2-3 against Chile and did win, so perhaps Aguirre has some crazy tricks up his sleeve.

Mexico is at a place a lot of teams seem to be at right now. A lot of their superstars are aging and the youngsters still haven’t developed into world class talent. Nine players on their 23 man roster are 30 or older, which certainly isn’t too old by soccer standards, but when you’re playing three matches in a 10 day span, fitness can become an issue. I expect Andrés Guardado to play a huge role if Mexico hopes to have success, he should play a big part in getting the ball up the pitch in the attack.

Prediction: I expect Mexico to beat South Africa, and lose or draw to France. Which is what I would expect of Uruguay as well, meaning that second place in the group could come down to the Mexico vs. Uruguay match, which is also the last match of the group.

The second place finisher in group A has to play the group B winner, which will probably be Argentina, and I wouldn’t put much on Mexico getting past them. I’m gonna play it safe and say Mexico take second in the group but lose to Argentina in the round of 16.

Country: Uruguay

Manager: Oscar Tabarez

Last World Cup: 2002, 3rd place in Group A

Best Overall Finish: 1950, Champions

How they qualified for South Africa?: Defeated Costa Rica 2-1 on aggregate in the CONCACAF 4th place v CONMEBOL 5th place

Key Players: Diego Forlán, Diego Lugano, Maxi Pereira, Luis Suárez, Sebastián Abreu

Missing Persons: Fabián Carini, Álvaro Recoba, Pablo Gabriel García, Cristian Rodríguez

Comments: Uruguay is probably the one old school powerhouse that most people forget about, since they’ve dropped off considerably since the late 70′s. They’re certainly not the power they once were, but they’re certainly not a team to scoff at. Their goal scoring prowess is rather impressive, Diego Forlán will probably lead the attack, while rising star Luis Suárez will slot in next to him. Sebastián Abreu will probably come off the bench, making for an impressive trio of strikers. If nothing else, those three will certainly make for some entertaining matches.

Prediction: Uruguay certainly could surprise some people, as France and Mexico seem like a lock to move on to the knockout stages. I blame this on Uruguay’s lack of recent success though, and think they could be the surprise team to  make it out of the group stage, given the rest of the group’s issues.

As I said above, I think it all comes down to Mexico v Uruguay though, if they come out fighting Mexico could have a problem coming back from it. However I have to think Mexico will prevail and Uruguay finish a close 3rd in the group.

Country: France

Manager: Raymond Domenech

Last World Cup: 2006, Runner-Up, Lost in final to Italy

Best Overall Finish: 1998, Champions

How they qualified for South Africa?: UEFA Second round qualifying, beat Ireland 2-1 on aggregate [via handball]

Key Players: Franck Ribéry, Florent Malouda, Thierry Henry, Jérémy Toulalan, Yoann Gourcuff

Missing Persons: Zinedine Zidane, Patrick Vieira, Lilian Thuram, Karim Benzema,  Lassana Diarra

Comments: Obviously, France got to this point because of some dodgy stuff, and I’m not talking about the Henry handball. I’m talking of course about Raymond Domenech. He’s made some incredibly confusing moves during his tenure and his team has underperformed.  One of the more confusing moves he’s made was the recent exclusion of Karim Benzema off his 30 man World Cup squad, while including André-Pierre Gignac, who had a comparably bad season. Luckily for France fans, he’ll be replaced by Laurent Blanc after the World Cup. That might be too little, too late for France though.

France undoubtedly has one of the most talent loaded squads in the World Cup,  all but one of their players played in European competition this season. Talent does not always equal success though, as they’ve gone just 1-1-1 in their three friendlies since World Cup Qualifying. Domenech is key here as he must figure out a way to properly utilize his talent to the best of it’s abilities.

It’s obvious from the missing persons list above that France has lost quite a bit of talent since the 2006 World Cup, and 2006 breakout star Franck Ribéry will have to step up and be a leader for this team rather than just a roleplayer.

Prediction: This is really a toss up, I can conceivably see scenarios where France dominates the group, but I can also see an implosion similar to 2002 happening. I’m leaning more towards them dominating the group though, they’ll probably come out on top. In the knockout round they’d most likely face Nigeria, who they can beat, but then they’d probably come up against England, which I don’t see as a match they can win. I would consider a top 8 finish as a success for this squad though.