Avoiding the Drop

In 26 hours or so, the Champions League Final will kick off in Madrid, on a Saturday, on major network television in America for the first time. This is the second or third most important game in soccer, and this year is no different. Sure the matchup isn’t as sexy as United-Chelsea (which sucked) or United- Barcelona (which was one sided) but it is a different matchup at least. A German team and an Italian team other than Milan is groundbreaking stuff given the last five years of the tournament. Personally I think it’s refreshing, and honestly, these teams are talented enough to be here. Inter shut down two of the highest scoring teams in Europe (Chelsea and Barcelona) while Bayern came back in both legs against Fiorentina and United. Inter haven’t provided many end-to-end thrilling games, but they’ve played their game and got here. Bayern can score against anyone right now it seems, but aren’t the best at keeping the ball out of their own net. It’s a matchup of two very different styles. So we decided to put together another of our World Famous Roundtable Discussions (we’re a few writers shy as some folk are traveling this week) to find out whether it would be Jose Mourinho or Louis van Gaal winning Ol’ Big Ears for the second time with a different team. But first, we take a look back at the tournament up to this point.

The Tournament That Was

Q: Which club was the biggest disappointment this season? And you can’t say Liverpool, it’s too easy.

Magnakai Haaskivi: After spending a quarter of a billion dollars, Real Madrid’s failure to get out of the octofinal (and, frankly, failure to even look competitive against Lyon) has to go down as the biggest failure, even over Liverpool. Similarly, the defending Bundesliga champions Wolfsburg weren’t even able to get out of the group stage. They had a tricky group, sure…but they also had Dzeko and Grafite. They should’ve done a lot better.

Two Yellows Equal Red: Real Madrid. Again. 75 trillion pounds spent, out in the round of 16. AGAIN.

Kevin: I don’t know if this is qualifies as a disappointment, but I think having the two French teams face each other in the quarter finals was kinda crappy.

Adam: Rangers. The Scottish champions managed to get all of two points out of a fairly easy group. I would expect that to happen to a team from a country like Cyprus, but even APOEL managed to pick up three points.

Georger: With all due respect to Real and their collapse, for me it’s Barcelona. Not because they didn’t reach the final, but for how they went out in the semis. Inter absolutely dominated them, and even with a man advantage for the bulk of the return leg they did not look likely to score at any point. Everyone was off their game, it just looked like they had run out of gas (or viable attacking options). If at the start of the season someone asked “which big club would go out without a fight” I doubt Barcelona would have been high on that list.

Q: Which game or tie provided the most shocking result?

Mags: Rubin Kazan’s 1-0 win over Barcelona; there were a lot of extenuating factors (the cold, the travel distance, the tactics employed, etc), but that loss was the first time that the possibility that Barcelona could fall apart was introduced. It ended up not being a major issue, but it’s interesting that the travel problems and tactical styles would prove their downfall later on in the tournament. (Note from Mags: in spite of the fact that I vividly remember this match – including both the return leg at the Nou Camp AND the loss in Russia – I’ve been informed by a commenter below that this result did not – and I’m paraphrasing here – ever happen in a million billion years.  Not only that, but no result that even sort of resembled this happening occurred. I’m not sure how I screwed up THAT badly; still, Barcelona DID lose to Rubin Kazan at home, and then proceeded to play to a scoreless draw in Russia, so I’m sticking with that as my shock result…just omit all that stuff about the “predictor of things to come”, because it’s apparently based on my imaginary fantasy world. If you’ll excuse me, I’m off to check my FM save to see if it happened there.)

Two Yellows: Well, for me, United 7 – 2 Milan on aggregate. I thought the Rossoneri would show out a bit more than that, but it was an awful showing.

Kevin: I still think that United getting knocked out by Bayern is the biggest shock. This could be because I don’t know that much about the Bundesliga and am not giving Bayern the credit they deserve.

Adam: Obviously Inter beating Barcelona is the easy way out here. But for me personally I thought Arsenal’s 2-2 draw with Barcelona was the most shocking because I was sure they’d be killed by 3-4 goals from Messi, which happened of course in the second leg.

Georger: Bayern’s comeback in both legs of the United tie. They came back against Fiorentina too, but this was a tougher matchup. I figured they were dead and burired after Rooney’s goal in Munich and of course the 3-0 lead in Manchester. I was wrong, and couldn’t have been happier about it.

Q: What player’s performance in the tournament surprised you in a good way?

Mags: Arjen Robben almost singlehandedly lifting Bayern Munich up to the final.

Two Yellows: Ivica Olic of Munich with 7 goals in competition. And some HUGE ones. He’s a good player but I wouldn’t have ever guessed.

Adam: Ivica Olić has been incredible, he’s scored 7 goals in 9 appearances, and scored two goals to help Bayern’s move into the semi-finals. Who doesn’t love the guy who helped knock United out

Georger: Thomas Müller for Bayern. Kid is only 20 but has kept Klose out of the squad in Europe. He has only scored twice, but he has played very well. He should have a spot in the final, even though people idiotically continue to suggest Klose should start up top and Müller should play in midfield. Klose is hot garbage, really not sure why people can’t grasp this.

Q: What player’s performance in the tournament surprised you in a bad way?

Mags: Dimitar Berbatov had six appearances and no goals in European competition. If that doesn’t sum up his season, I’m not sure what does.

Two Yellows: Kaka. He was largely invisible during the round of 16. I know he was coming off injury, but that was an awful showing. Terrible. Probably a leading contender as to why Pellegrini is gone.

Georger: Zlat…. just kidding I didn’t have any expectations for him. Actually for me it’s Ribery. Not because he played poorly, but because he was completely overshadowed by Robben, and then cost himself a spot in the final and severely hurt his team’s chances. Honestly I would go with a Liverpool player here but their last Champions League game was like five months ago so I don’t remember who was responsible but my guess would be Insua.

Q: What is your favorite moment of the tournament thus far?

Mags: Arjen Robben’s goal against Manchester United.

Two Yellows: Tough, but I’d say the look on Fergie’s face when they went out. I love watching that old mug get all sour.

Adam: Robben’s tie winning goal for Bayern. It’s a good thing Madrid didn’t think he was good enough for them right? (ed: I’m guessing he means against United rather than Fiorentina)

Georger: Arsenal getting steamrolled by Messi at the Camp Nou. While Robben knocking out United was awesome, I wasn’t able to watch and had to follow on my BlackBerry during a human rights seminar. But I got to watch the Arsenal-Barcelona tie both weeks, and boy oh boy did that second one get out of hand fast. Arsenal thought they were in control and then there was Messi. Easily one of the best individual performances in European Cup history. It was one of those games that I’m glad to say I witnessed live (and to Arsenal’s credit, so was the first leg, great comeback).

Q: What game or tie was the best of the tournament thus far?

Mags: Between the drama of the first leg and Messi’s dismantling of Arsenal at the Nou Camp, I’d have to give this to Arsenal-Barcelona in the quarterfinals.

Two Yellows: We didn’t get a 4-4 classic this year, but I can say that Inter/Barca part 2 in the semis was a classic.

Adam: Debrecen v Fiorentina. Quite the entertaining match I had the lucky pleasure of watching thanks to DirecTV. It was a flurry of goals in the first 30 minutes, sadly it sort of died down in the 2nd half.

Georger: Bayern v. Fiorentina. Bayern should in no way have won the first leg and only did because of a BS red card on Fiorentina, a non-red card for Bayern, and Klose’s winning goal being three yards offside. But the return leg saw four goals in eleven minutes during the second half and an absurd wondergoal from Robben to seal the referee-aided victory.

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The Final To Come

Q: Going into the final, what do you think is the most intriguing storyline?

Mags: For me, the best story involves the team that ISN’T there: Real Madrid. They not only spent tons of money; they also sold players. Tomorrow at the Bernebeu, both Arjen Robben and Wesley Sneijder – cast off from Real Madrid this summer – will get the chance to do what they’d never been able to do if they’d stayed in Spain.

Two Yellows: Mourinho. If he wins, he can name his price at almost anywhere.

Kevin: I kind of like the teacher (van Gaal) v. student (Mourinho) line is a bit interesting. I also think the fact that both teams are playing for the “treble” has the potential to make this a very exciting match.

Adam: No English teams being in it for a few reasons. Normally I’ve got a rooting interest if an English team is in it, but without I’ve got less rooting interest so it makes me want a good game while rooting lightly for one side. Also it should make the pubs less full of casual fans who only pay attention when one of the big 4 are playing, making for a fun atmosphere.

Georger: The failure of Spanish teams in this tournament with the final being in Madrid. Atletico Madrid got knocked out at the group stage, Sevilla and Real got knocked out in the first knock-out round, and Barcelona made it to the semis but never once looked like they could beat Inter in that tie (hm maybe because their manager isn’t that good and neutered his side, no, no, that’s crazy). For all the talk about the lack of English teams, the expectations on the Spanish were much higher. Barcelona were not able to break down strong defensive teams like Inter. Real, for all of their spending, need time to gel, but still choked. But you can have one bad game when your defense can actually keep you from losing games at home. This league is supposed to be the dominant force in soccer right now, but with those tax loopholes now closed (that’s a quality read by the way), the league debt skyrocketing, and Barcelona’s debt at a level that would make Tom Hicks blush, I think we’re going to see other leagues catching up (and probably already saw it this year).

Q: How do you think FOX will handle the broadcast?

Mags: Curt Menefee, Bruce Arena, and Eric Wynalda are doing the pregame; Menefee’s mostly an NFL guy, Arena has no personality, and Wynalda is kind of a tool. That part will probably suck. Andy Gray and Martin Tyler aren’t going to bring anything new; you either like them or hate them. Personally, I wish Ray Hudson would put out an alternate audio track.

Two Yellows: Match will be fine with Tyler/Gray. I won’t watch pre-match or half, but I bet it’s less than good with Eric Wynalda’s involvement.

Adam: Without Tommy Smyth it’ll be improved, I really did not like that guy. Martin Tyler and Andy Gray are two of the better announcers out there so the in game commentary will be good. In the studio Bruce Arena is there for the name recognition for the casual fan more than anything, but I’m sure he’ll do a good job. Curt Menefee is good doing the NFL, and while he’s sort of there just to lead the show, if he doesn’t have knowledge of the game it’ll show.

Georger: I think ESPN is the worst thing ever for soccer. They don’t care about it, they don’t prepare for it, and they sure as hell don’t package it well. Sure they get good anouncers for the World Cup. But when their studio crew usually contains at least one of Julie Foudy, Alexi Lalas, and Tommy Smyth, it’s garbage. I remember the pregame for the 2007 final in Athens and Smyth said that Peter Crouch was not playing because he was ineffectual in the tournament. Guess who Liverpool’s top scorer was in the competition that year. Yeah, get the hell out ESPN. I don’t think FOX will handle the pregame well, but honestly as long as they don’t get anything wrong, it’s an improvement over ESPN. The game itself should be fine, as there is no Wayne Rooney for Andy Gray to give vocal-fellatio, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he will find a way somehow. I echo Mags’s sentiment that Ray Hudson should be involved, that guy knocked the Europa League out of the park.

Q: How do you think the final will performance ratings-wise on the weekend for the first time?

Mags: FOX is anticipating 2 million people will watch; I think that sounds about right. I wonder if, ironically, putting it on the main network actually works against it; on ESPN, you might have gotten more casual viewers. I never look at FOX during the day.

Two Yellows: 3.2/5.0.  Mostly because of Friend of the Site Jeremy St. Louis’s involvement, surely.

Kevin: Not as good as they’re hoping for. I just don’t see a big US audience for this game in the middle of a Saturday afternoon (late morning on out West).

Adam: I think they’ll be better than last year on ESPN. Even though last season was a game that would have drawn more casual fans, it was also on a Wednesday and a lot of people can’t just leave work mid day for 3 hours. More people will be making an “event” of it as there’s not much else in terms of sports on at that time. This match will be a true test of how well the Saturday switch works, because if ratings can improve worldwide with a non enticing matchup then it was obviously a good switch.

Georger: I think casual interest will be down, but not to the extent that the “England is great at soccer and nobody else is” contingent would like to think it will be without any English teams (stocked nearly entirely with foreign players). FOX’s estimates sound about right, but as long as it beats last year’s I think it will be deemed a success. Except by morons.

Q: Should Howard Webb have been chosen for this game considering his performance in the FA Cup semifinal?

Mags: Any referee that isn’t Massimo Busacca is automatically suspect; Webb’s inability to call penalties, and Inter’s penchant for physical defending, could easily create a gameday issue.

Two Yellows: The only English referee who should have done the match was Phil Dowd. The rest of them are complete shit.

Georger: Absolutely not. I realize it’s a different competition with different governing bodies, but when that was the last high profile match he officiated and he did a terrible job at it, there needs to be some kind of punishment. As the FA decided not to demote him for a week after his self defecating display at Wembley, this just further supports those who claim there is no real consequence for referees blowing a game.

Q: Who do you think the key player is for each side?

Mags: For Bayern: Robben. He was one of my favorite players to watch last season, and he’s continued that through to this season. For Inter: probably Wesley Sneijder.

Two Yellows: Inter will be Wesley Sneijder for obvious reasons. For Bayern, I’d say Demichelis who has been completely shaky at times.

Adam: Real Madrid paid millions this past summer hoping to be playing in the Champions League final in their stadium. They obviously aren’t, but luckily two of their former players are. Arjen Robben, for Bayern, and Wesley Sneijder, for Inter, have both had phenomenal seasons for their sides. Robben is probably more important because he’ll be leading the attack through the midfield without Ribery. However Sneijder will also be a deciding force for Inter.

Georger: Bayern must have an enormous Schweinsteiger to win this game. Assuming he is with van Bommel in the middle, he is going to be needed to shut down the likes of Sneijder. Plus I didn’t want to say Robben. For Inter, oh I don’t know let’s say Milito. If Bayern can stop Eto’o, they might not be able to stop Milito. They made Wayne Rooney have a terrible game, but I am interested to see how they handle two elite strikers.

Q: Who is a potential darkhorse impact player for each side?

Mags: Bayern: Schweinsteiger, Inter: Milito.

Two Yellows: For Inter, it’s probably Balotelli because he won’t start but if he comes on will be a factor. For Bayern, either van Bommel or Super Mario.

Adam: Altintop for Bayern. He should be replacing the suspended Ribery and could be key to how the German side does. Mario Balotelli for Inter. Who knows if he’ll even play, but it always seems that guys like him who’s own fans hate them somehow redeem themselves in crazy situations. I’m calling the Balotelli redemption this weekend. That or he does something comically disastrous and he’s run out of Milan forever.

Georger: For Bayern, it’s whoever lines up at left-back. Whether it’s Badstuber, Pranjic, or Contento, they’re going to have to be big. It’s Bayern’s weakest spot in defense and if they can keep Inter from exploiting it, they have a good shot at winning. For Inter … Julio César. Didn’t see that coming did you? I pick the keeper because Bayern are here due to some wondergoals from Robben, and he will surely have a crack at another tomorrow, but my man in the net could have something to say about that.

Q: Who scores? Who wins?

Mags: 2-2 draw, with Bayern winning on penalties. Eto’o and Sneijder score for Inter, Schweinsteiger and Olic score for Bayern.

Two Yellows: Bayern 2 – 1 Inter, goal scorers will be Robben, Altintop and Sneijder.

Kevin: I am giving Bayern credit now and will say they win 2-1.

Adam: 2-1 to Inter with Eto’o and Sneijder scoring for Inter and Olic scoring for Bayern

Georger: 2-0 Inter. Eto’o with both. Inter is too strong technically and even though I think Robben > Ribery, the powerful odor of whorehouse that radiates outward from Ribery knocks defenders off their game, and whoever replaces him just cannot match that ability.

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So there you have it. Three of us are backing the Bavarians, while two are backing Jose and co., nice split there. Here’s to an entertaining final and FOX staying out of the way. Enjoy the game.