Avoiding the Drop

As the Premier League Season winds down, Portsmouth has all but moved out, while  Hull City, Burnley, and West Ham are arguing over who gets the keys to the U-Haul next. However, the Championship League has been busy preparing the teams who will be moving in next season.

First to make the move are Newcastle United. After an utterly embarrassing end to last season, which saw a nasty, public dispute between owner Mike Ashley and former manager Kevin Keegan; had them relegated from the Premier League for the first time since 1994; and saw the team put up for sale in an eBayesque manner; Newcastle pretty much had their way in the Championship division this season. They were top of the table by eight points at Christmas time, and have never looked back nor taken their foot of the gas.  However, promotion back to the Premier League is only the first hurdle they’ll need to overcome. More pressing will be getting club finances back in order. Like so many other clubs, the Newcastle financial house is still very much in a state of disarray. Estimates are that the club is losing £500,000 a week while in the Championship, and the added revenue from being back in the Premier League will need to be used to pay down and restructure debt. Owner Mike Ashley is still mostly reviled by Newcastle supporters over his past actions. But he outwardly seems to be recommitted to the team and the fans. There is still a long row to hoe before this proud team with a great past regains its former glory. I for one hope they will exhibit the patience necessary so that they can retain that legacy for a long time to come.

Next to the neighborhood is West Bromwich Albion. They are returning to the Premier League for the fourth time in nine years and are the definition of a “yo-yo” team having survived relegation only once. Unlike Newcastle, WBA’s finances appear to be in good shape but history has shown them to be tight with the purse strings when it comes to spending on players. They are currently tied with Newcastle on total goals scored, but only have two players who have scored in double digits. Given their past history in the Premier League, and their tight-fistedness I wouldn’t expect to see WBA in the Premier League after next season.

Finally, and perhaps most interesting, are the remaining four spots all of which could be clinched this weekend with the right combination of wins and losses. With three games left in the season only Nottingham Forest have mathematically locked a spot in the playoffs. Cardiff City is almost a lock and can clinch their spot this weekend with a win over QPR, or by just not losing any of their remaining matches.  The last two spots are going to be the most closely contested. Currently, Leicester City and Swansea City hold these positions, but six points or less separate Blackpool and Middlesbrough from these last two spots. Should Swansea City retain the last spot and win the playoffs, they would be the first non-England team to play in the Premier League.

Key games to watch (or at least pay attention to):

Cardiff City: Any game. If they win, they clinch a playoff spot.

Leicester City:  Any of their games also. If they get a single win, they are virtually a lock, but mathematically susceptible. Their final game of the season though is against Middlesbrough, so if things pan out badly that will be an exciting match.

Swansea City: They have the biggest challenge. They are only two points ahead of Blackpool and the remainder of their games are all against middling teams. They are must “win out” if they are to guarantee themselves a playoff spot. (On a completely non-soccer note, I happen to have one of last season’s Swansea tops and won $350 in a poker tournament while wearing it. It is now my official poker shirt.)

Blackpool: Must get positive results against both Nottingham Forest and Bristol City. Their other match is against bottom of the table Peterborough and if they don’t win that one, they probably don’t deserve a playoff spot anyway.

Middlesbrough: Seem the most unlikely to qualify as they have to defeat both Leicester City and WBA, while at the same time get an unlikely array of poor results from all the teams currently above them. But, HEY! Hull City got a second year in the Premier League through a strange cosmic alignment, so anything is possible.

So who do you think will make the Championship playoffs? Who will emerge victorious and claim the final house in the Premier League neighborhood? Share your thoughts in the comments.