Avoiding the Drop

Much like Georger yesterday, this is a rematch of the first match in European competition that I watched. These two last met in the 2006 final where Barcelona took the title with a 2-1 victory. Much has changed since then for both squads, Arsenal features four players who took the field that day, and Barca five (one being Thierry Henry who played for Arsenal at the time).

Both teams have gone in slightly different directions though, Arsenal hasn’t won a trophy since 2005 and have been in a strange rebuilding mode the last few years. Meanwhile Barcelona has gotten freakishly stronger and have won every trophy possible except for the Spanish League Cup.

We’re not here to talk about the past though, so let’s look up how these two match up today.

Arsenal is obviously a big underdog going into this match, but really anybody would be against Barcelona. Arsenal have had an up and down season full of befuddling losses and draws, and wins like the 6-1 season opener against Everton that made them look infallible.

Arsenal could also be without Cesc Fabregas for this match. This isn’t entirely a negative for Arsenal though, as sometimes they can rely on Cesc too heavily and expect him to pull something off when nobody else is really feeling it. Conversely Arsenal seems to pull together and play stronger when the captain is out.

Good news for Arsenal though as William Gallas could be back for this match, meaning the chances for Sol Campbell to do anything dumb could be limited, and Mikael Silvestre has almost zero chance of making a fool of himself. Gallas would represent Arsenal’s best chance at stopping Leo Messi, though he’s not been stopped very much this season.

Statstically Arsenal have looked pretty good in the Champions League this season, they’re tied for the most goals in the tournament at 18, but those numbers are a bit padded as they had one of the easier groups to get through and put 5 past Porto in their last match. Though when Arsenal’s been on their game this season, they’re pretty unstoppable.

Barcelona isn’t an opponent that’s going to let them be on their game very easily though. Barcelona has averaged more possession than any other team in the Champions League by over 10 minutes per game, and their back line can cause problems, especially when Danni Alves and Maxwell press forward into offense.

The most obvious threat is Leo Messi, he’s scored 36 goals in 51 appearances (5 as a sub), and eight in his last 5 appearances. There really isn’t any way to stop him from scoring goals like this where he makes use of his incredible strength, speed, and ball handling skills in a matter of ten seconds. Arsenal’s defense at times has looked very porous with many players, including Manuel Almunia prone to stupid mistakes. This means Messi could get some golden opportunities to put it in the back of the net.

Arsene Wenger is never the type to play ugly football and put 11 men behind the ball, which can be his downfall in matches like this where a little of that might be needed. With the attacking options available to Barcelona this could provide a wealth of scoring chances, and Barca only needs 3-4 solid chances to really put the end to a match.

Andres Iniesta will not feature for the Catalan side as he’s been ruled out with an injury, but that shouldn’t be too much of a blow to Barca as Xavi, Toure, Busquets, and others can fill his role sufficiently.

Ulitmately I think this match will be a lot closer than it would seem. The three most important things Arsenal must do if they want to come away with a win are:

• Keep Messi from getting in a rhythm as much as possible. This isn’t any easy task but if he can get into a groove he’ll be able to end the tie on his own. Chelsea managed to do it last season in the Champions League, so it is achieveable.
• Keep the attack together in the final third. Arsenal are always terrible in the final third, and if they can’t get it together they’ve got no chance in scoring.
• Limit the stupid mistakes. This would seem redundant but sadly, Arsenal make far too many mistakes at crucial moments. These are escapable against the likes of Hull City, but Barcelona will surely make them pay for them.

Barcelona’s three keys to succes:

• Control the box. Arsenal are a team that can have 70% possession and still lose to a middling side because of their inability to to make decent chances. If Barca can frustrate and break up possession, they should have a good game.
• Feed Messi the ball. He’s capable of making incredible runs the length of the field, so if he’s given possession as much as possible, the odds are that he’ll be able to do something.
• Don’t let Thierry Henry on the pitch. He doesn’t even want to play against Arsenal. I’d be afraid he’d score an own goal just because he was sad and missed his days with Patrick Vieria at Highbury.

Prediction: Arsenal 2-3 Barcelona
I see this match being pretty wide open, but ultimately Barcelona come out on top, making for a near impossible return leg at the Nou Camp for Arsenal.