Avoiding the Drop

Last season you might remember that I took a look at the odds the bookmakers were putting on teams getting relegated from the Premier League, and while we’re still far from being able to really tell who’s going down to the Colaship, I thought it’d be interesting to check the odds out. When I wrote that article last season, the three best odds at getting relegated actually did, so this season is probably a little more random.

Last season the relegation battle seemed muddled, but at this point in the season there are 4 teams tied for the final relegation spot on points, and an additional two within three points, meaning that if this weekend goes the right way, the 14th place team-Wigan-could drop all the way to 18th. Join me after the jump to find out who the bookies think are done, and who they don’t see going down.

Portsmouth: 22 matches played, 15 points, -16 goal differential
odds: 1/6

I don’t think anyone is giving Pompey a chance to stay up, I’m not even sure if they’ve paid their players in the last few months, they didn’t pay their web host, and the list of problems goes on and on. It’s a shame too because they’re really a shell of the team they were two years ago when they won the FA Cup.

With a decent run they could  stay up as they’re only 6 points out of safety and actually have a decent goal differential, but with all their internal issues I’d say it’s highly likely they’ll be going down. The oddsmakers agree, the odds are stacked in relegation’s favor but I wouldn’t want to be the guy that put $600 down to win $100 only to see Pompey survive.

Hull City: 24 matches played, 21 points, -26 goal differential
Odds: 4/6

This is where things start to get interesting, the biggest knock Hull have right now is their terrible goal differential, it’s the worst in the league, and it’s unlikely to improve a whole lot over the course of the rest of the season. If they get stuck in a relegation fight it could really hurt them.

However with the amount of talent Hull has, I’d predict them to actually pull out a few results and stay away from relegation yet again this season. You never know what a master tactician orange guy like Phil Brown has up his sleeve though.

Burnley:  23 matches played, 20 points, -23 goal differential
odds: 8/11

The biggest loss Burnley have had this season was the departure of Owen Coyle to Bolton. Their away form has also been terrible, picking up only 1 point in 12 matches. Their home form has been phenomenal though and if they played every match at home they’d be in 5th place in the league right now.

Sadly they can’t play every match at home the rest of the way, and if they can’t start picking up points away from home it looks like they may be back in the Colaship. They’ve certainly out performed a lot of peoples expectations of them thus far, but I can’t see their poor away form helping them the rest of the way.

Wolverhampton: 23 matches played, 21 points, -21 goal differential
odds: 5/4

Wolves are probably #2 on my most likely to get relegated list behind Pompey. They just don’t seem well equipped to handle the teams in the Premier League. Their squad is built to win in the Championship, but that doesn’t translate well into the Premier League .

It seems like the only thing keeping them from being shellacked like Derby County did a few years back is the fact that a lot of teams this season are giving up silly games meaning they’re able to slip a win or two in every so often.

Bolton: 22 matches played, 21 points, -15 goal differential
odds: 10/3

I’m kinda unsure how Bolton are still in the league. They just seem like they perpetually stay in about 14th place at the end of every season. They don’t really pull off upset wins of big clubs, they just beat who they need to beat to stay around. It’s not as though they’ve got a terrible squad, there are good players there, they just don’t seem to ever be able to get it together and play strong.

I don’t think this is the season they go down though. Owen Coyle should be able to muster enough from his squad to stay another year. In fact if I were betting on teams to maybe make a late season run and jump into the top 10 I’d pick Bolton.
Wigan: 22 matches played, 22 points, -23 goal differential
odds: 9/2

The problem with smaller clubs is that they can’t afford to keep their nice things. A season ago Wigan had a pretty good squad, Wilson Palacios and Antonio Valencia being key players, as well as Steve Bruce running things. However because Wigan can’t really afford to pass up offers of £16 million for players, they’re stuck with the Titus Brambles of the world.

I can see Wigan going either way, they don’t have loads of talent, but at times they’ve shown that they can grind out and get results. Ultimately I think they come down to the final weeks in a full relegation battle, and it’s hard to say if they come out ahead.
West Ham: 23 matches played, 21 points, -9 goal differential
odds: 5/1

West Ham have been rather disappointing this season, after finishing 9th last year, they’ve come up short this season, which is odd. Every time I’ve seen them play they’ve played well, and their goal differential suggests that they’re probably not as bad as their record suggests. I’m guessing over the rest of the season that they level out and probably finish around 10th-12th place. I can’t see relegation in their future.

Sunderland: 23 matches played, 24 points, -10 goal differential
odds: 10/1

What happened here? Going back to November 21st Sunderland were sitting on 20 points and in 8th place, just 2 points behind the 4th spot in the table. Now they’ve picked up just 4 points in 10 matches. It’s a bit shocking because until just now I didn’t know they were doing that terrible of late. They’ve got the second worst road form of any team in the league, so finding a way to get points away from home has to be their #1 priority.

Sunderland has a good squad, and Steve Bruce is a good manager, but a couple of injuries seem to have really hurt them over the last few months. I can’t see them taking a drop like Hull City did last season, but something needs to be figured out if they don’t want to be the butt of jokes from Newcastle fans (who will most likely be back in the League next season). If they can figure some way to right the ship in the next couple of weeks they probably won’t be serious relegation candidates, but if they can’t it could end up a very scary prospect for them.

Right now, if I had to pick three that are getting relegated it’d be Portsmouth, Wolves and Hull City. Who are your picks though?