Avoiding the Drop

It seems like every January there’s a big “almost” deal: the move that was a virtual done deal BEFORE January that, for whatever reason, never quite came into being. As of this writing (which is a bit before the window closes), the spending this year is 36% of where it was last year; that means that more clubs didn’t buy that star player they’d have considered buying last year. Now that the silly season is over, let’s take a look at the top five transfers that didn’t happen in this year’s winter transfer market. We’ll do that in descending order after the jump.

#5: Ruud van Nistelrooy’s (Nonexistant) Return to the Premier League

Let’s take the Way Back Machine to December 15th, 2009. On that date, I wrote up this little piece on the various locations that Real Madrid’s Ruud van Nistelrooy might be off to once the window opened up. Some of those locales were loan deals and some were purchases, but all of them were designed to do one thing: maximize van Nistelrooy’s exposure before the World Cup. And, really, what better way to do that than play striker for one of the top clubs? I had articles linking him to everyone; Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham, and Blackburn were all in the running, while Arsenal had dropped out. In fact, the only Premier League team that WASN’T linked to van Nistelrooy in December was Manchester United.

So where did he end up? Hamburg SV in the Bundesliga.

In a way, this move makes sense. van Nistelrooy’s entire reason for moving was exposure; he wants to show the Dutch national team that he should be in the World Cup squad. On the bench at Real Madrid, he’d never have that chance; he’s about the fifth striker on their depth chart. But a move to Tottenham or Chelsea would probably put him in that same position, a move to Liverpool would see him as the second striker in a one-striker formation, and a move to Blackburn probably wouldn’t be able to provide him the service he needs to be effective. At Hamburg, he’s got a good team with a need, and is likely to get a lot of playing time; ultimately, it will accomplish his goal far more effectively than a move to the Premier League.

#4: Klaas-Jan Huntelaar to Somewhere That’s Not AC Milan

This story has kind of been the case for every transfer window since last winter. Let’s quickly review the most recent portion of Huntelaar’s career thus far:

• 2005-09: Ajax (92 appearances, 72 goals)
• January 2009-August 2009: Real Madrid (20 appearances, 8 goals)
• August 2009-Present: AC Milan (11 appearances, 3 goals)

The oversimplified quick summary of that career is this: Huntelaar was really good in Holland but can’t quite seem to cut it at the top flight, elite clubs. That’s probably not 100% true, but the fact of the matter is that even Pato’s injury hasn’t opened the door for him at AC Milan; for whatever reason, he’s not starting. He’s not really even PLAYING, which could theoretically jeopardize his shot at getting into the Dutch World Cup squad. Because of that, it was widely assumed that his days at Milan were numbered, and that he’d be playing (or not playing, as it may be) for his fourth club in two years.

Really, a move away from Milan makes sense; unfortunately, when one doesn’t play often, one’s price (and wages) decrease. His agent’s assertions notwithstanding, the only English club that was ever officially linked with him was Everton, who were only looking at a loan deal. So now that no move has materialized, Huntelaar’s agent is whining about his playing time while the man himself is acting like there was never a reason to leave in the first place.

#3: Arsenal to Buy a Striker

Those of you who watched the Arsenal-Manchester United match yesterday, one thing stuck out about Arsenal’s formation: it was lacking a certain bite in the attack. Oh, sure, Andriy Arshavin’s a good attacker; he might even be a good second striker. He isn’t, however, a lone striker; he’s too small for that. Arsene Wenger seemed to recognize this at the beginning of January, when he said that if Nicklas Bendtner’s injuries persisted he’d consider spending some of his 35 million budget on an attacker; unfortunately, it’s now the end of January, Bendtner’s not hurt but not playing, and Arsenal are without any real attacking bite against the top teams.

This may not be the end of the world for them, of course; Arsenal’s midfield is a dream, and they’re capable of ripping apart pretty much anyone on their day. The problem is, they’re right now going to need to beat the better teams to get close to the title, while teams like Aston Villa, Everton, and Manchester United are starting to give them problems. An attacker would help them out a lot, but unfortunately for Gunners fans that doesn’t seem to be on the cards.

Just a note: some Arsenal fans are REALLY mad about this. Like “calling for Wenger to be sacked” mad. I’m not sure it’s that bad, but Wenger’s selling of Adebayor, plus his seeming unwillingness to purchase new talent to reinforce his side, seems to be getting old with some fans.

#2: Arsenal and Manchester United to Buy a Keeper

The other fun moment in yesterday’s Arsenal-Manchester United match came about halfway through the first half. Nani manages to squeeze the ball through two Arsenal defenders, get to the byline, and loft a beautiful floating cross to the back post that was dutifully slotted home by Manuel Almunia’s hand. Manchester United, of course, had the towering presence of Edwin van der Sar back between the pipes; he’s not been around as often this season, however, and is thought to be close to retirement. His backups – Tomasz Kuszczak and Ben Foster – have similarly failed to impress in their time on the pitch.

It was widely thought, then, that both clubs would be in the market for a new keeper. Arsenal probably would want someone who could start right away, while Manchester United could possibly afford a player who would be willing to sit until next season (perhaps even on a “buy and loan back” deal). With the market now closed, however, it’s pretty clear that either neither team had the finances or (more likely) a willing partner with which to do a deal for one of any number of keepers: Igor Afinkeev, Hugo Lloris, Gianlugi Buffon, Sebastien Frey, and Hugo Mandanda were all identified as possible targets, but all will stay where they are until the summer.

#1: Chelsea to Stockpile Players

Let’s review Chelsea’s transfer ban. The ban is set to stretch over three transfer periods, and was going to start up in January. Back in November, however, Chelsea’s lawyers successfully appealled the ban to the Court of Arbitration for Sport; the appeal ment that, since the matter wasn’t settled, the Blues would be free to spend like fiends in January on the assumption that the ban would be re-imposed after their hearing (expected some time in the first quarter of 2010). Mostly, they were linked with Sergio Aguero from Atletico Madrid, who seemed to be open to a move in the offseason.

Instead, Chelsea bought exactly nobody this January.

Now, it’s of course possible that the CAS will lift the ban permanently with the appeal. It’s not necessarily likely, however, and Chelsea’s squad is aging. The worst case scenario for them is that the CAS re-impose the ban, which would then encompass two summer signing periods and one winter (the summer signing periods tend to have much more successful signings available); one would think that, to avoid that issue, they’d have spent some of the transfer money they’d have budgeted from the next three transfer periods in this one.