Avoiding the Drop

One of the stories from today’s “About Last Night” involves former U.S. wonderkid Freddy Adu. Adu, who’s primarily plied his trade in Portugal and France, turned down a chance to move to Hull City and the Premiership for a shot at the Greek Superleague.

This decision, frankly, shows either a stunning lack of ambition or a refreshing acknowledgement of his own skill level. Adu would probably have ridden the bench at Hull; at Aris, where the talent pool is presumably a little shallower, he may have a chance at doing something he hasn’t done with consistency since leaving MLS. In fact, since joining Benfica in July of 2007, Adu’s only made 24 appearances in his European career; if he plays regularly at Aris, he’s got a chance of doing a lot better than that. On the other hand, if Adu really is this sparkling-yet-undiscovered talent than moving to Greece shows that he may not really be willing to work that hard to break into a roster.

Fortunately for Adu, he’s got some company at Aris. See, Eddie Johnson, who is also hoping to someday crack the U.S. men’s lineup, was also just loaned to Aris by Fulham; this gives Aris Thessaloniki the dubious distinction of having two Americans that the U.S. men’s team doesn’t think are good enough to play for their country. Conor Casey could clean up in Greece.

So, because I’m American, and because two former potential American internationals are playing there, I decided to take a look at Aris Thessaloniki and learn a bit more about them. We’ll look more at the Gods of War (which, honestly, is probably the coolest nickname ever) after the jump.

First, let’s talk about where Aris Thessaloniki is, exactly. The city of Thessaloniki is the capital of the Macedonia region of Greece; it along the northern shore of the Meditteranean sea. It’s also the birthplace and home of three saints: Aristarchus of Thessalonica (who walked with Paul and is mentioned in the Bible), Saint Methodius (who invented the Cyrillic alphabet), and the city’s patron saint, Saint Demetrius (who was run through with spears by the Romans in 306 AD). As a Clevelander, this is pretty impressive; our most famous alumni is Drew Carey.

Onto the club. As you might’ve guessed, “Aris” is named after Ares, the Greek god of war (hence the bitching nickname). According to Wikipedia, this report (a 90 page .pdf entirely in Greek) shows Aris as the fifth most-supported club in the top flight of Greek soccer, which is pretty good I guess. It’s especially good when you consider the fact that Aris doesn’t exactly win trophies. Their biggest top flight trophy win is also their ONLY top flight trophy win: the 1970 Greek Cup (that’s not counting 1998, when they won the Greek second division). They have, however, been runners up a bunch of times, including recent trips to the final in 2003, 2005, and 2008.

The problem for Aris seems to be an inability to score goals. Their highest scoring season in the top flight in the last ten years was the 1999-2000 season, when they scored 50. Since then, they’re barely scoring thirty goals a season…in a league with a thirty game schedule. The year they scored 50 (which was actually a 34-game schedule), second placed Panathinaikos finished with 92 goals and a +68 differential; Aris scored 50, shipped 46, and came in seventh.

Recent form, of course, is more telling; they’re both scoring and allowing about thirty goals a season. Last season they ended up in fifth place with a -1 differential, just outside of the playoffs for European slots (the Greek league doesn’t send you to the Champions League or Europa League directly; the second through fifth placed teams have a playoff to determine who goes where, with point weighting based on league position. It’s a little confusing.).

Their most recent match – Tuesday’s 3-0 win over Atrimitos – highlights what might be the problem. Stats show that the game was insanely one sided, but not in the way that the scoreline suggests; Atrimitos had 16 shots to Aris’s 6, had four corners to Aris’s none, and was fouled by Aris twenty times. Aris was also up a man after Atrimitos had a centerback sent off; from the looks of the stats, Aris ground out a result against ten men.

There seems to be a good chance of either Adu or Johnson breaking into the first team. For one thing, while Aris has seven strikers on their squad already, only two of them – Koke and Javier Campora – are actually playing regularly. Of those two, only Campora is scoring; he’s netted six times this season (two of which weren against Atrimitos on Tuesday). 34-year old Uruguayan Sebastien Abreu is the second highest scorer (with 3), but I’d imagine that he’s probably not got a lot of pace on him anymore. Koke seems like he desperately needs to be replaced; he’s played in all sixteen games so far (starting fifteen), but has only scored once.

In that sense, the move makes a ton of sense for Adu. At Hull, he’d be fighting for playing time as both an attacking midfielder and a striker; Hull’s pretty settled on their guys at the moment, and unless he came in and set the world on fire (something he hasn’t shown a knack for) he’d be stuck on the bench behind guys who’ve at least proven themselves. Aris, on the other hand, has nothing at all to lose by throwing on a striker who can’t score, seeing as they’ve been doing it all season. Their strikers (excepting an Irish guy who’s played 34 minutes over two appearances) are also all old; the youngest is Javito, a 26-year old Spaniard who’s failed to score in twelve appearances. Old strikers tend to be slow strikers, and having youth and pace (which both Adu and Johnson have) works in their favor.

The only problem – one I touched on back in August – is that this is truly Adu’s last chance (actually, it’s more like his SECOND last chance, since the stint at Beleneses was also his last chance). Should he not break into the starting eleven at Aris, in a situation almost tailor made for him to succeed, than it’s probably going to end not just his international career, but also his regular playing career. Nobody wants a guy who isn’t playing, no matter how good he was when he was “17″. For Johnson, the stakes are probably a little lower, but only because his potential was never as great as Adu’s; he also really needs to perform if he wants to keep his career going.

And that’s the cautionary tale here. While U.S. soccer is busy infighting over their second division’s status, the products that they’re producing and hyping for international consumption are simply substandard. These two players cost a grand total of $8 million, combined, to European clubs, plus whatever wage they’ve been earning; they were two of our most hyped stars, and they simply cannot cut it on the international stage. And they’re not alone; Jozy Altidore, the other megastar from 2008, hasn’t scored yet in his fifteen appearances with Hull. Landon Donovan, touted as the best talent that the U.S. has ever produced, has yet to show he can perform at the top levels of club soccer. If the U.S. wants to make money off of players, than they need to be producing higher quality players than they’re producing now.

Either way, we’re looking at a busy five months for both of these guys. We’ll keep you updated on their progress, should it occur.