Avoiding the Drop

This was originally going to be a brilliant and incisive analytical piece on the World Cup draw, specifically on the U.S.A.’s prospects in Group C. And then I got sick… Instead, what you are going to get is the few thoughts that have stuck in my head over the past two days between impromptu three hour naps and massive amounts of cough syrup.

Despite having had a few days to think about the implications of the recent draw for the USMNT in next summer’s World Cup, I’m sticking with my initial reaction- it was as good a draw as the U.S.A. could have hoped for, and as such, the excuses are gone. If the the U.S.A. fails to move on from the group stage, we have to own up to the fact that, as a footballing nation, we’re just not that good. My rationale for this is fairly simple. First, while I’m not saying we will, we can beat England. We’ve shown we can get results against footballing powers in big tournaments (Portugal, Spain, Italy, etc.) and England are, in my opinion, the likeliest of the seeded teams to choke. Second, we don’t need to beat England to advance, a draw will probably be enough and I’m fairly confident we can do that. Third, we’re playing England first, so should we lose, we’ll still have the matches against Slovenia and Algeria in which to pick up the points necessary to advance. Fourth, and finally, Slovenia and Algeria both had to qualify through their region’s playoffs- if we can’t get points against them, we probably shouldn’t be in South Africa. Here is my prediction:

England 7pts (draws the U.S.A., defeats Algeria and Slovenia)

USA 5 pts (draws with England and Algeria, defeats Slovenia)

Algeria 4 pts (draws with the U.S.A., loses to England, defeats Slovenia)

Slovenia 0 pts (loses to England, U.S.A., and Algeria)

I could also see- realistically speaking- the U.S.A. beating Algeria and Algeria and Slovenia playing to a draw, but that wouldn’t change much beyond the point distribution and either the U.S.A. or England winning the group on the basis of goal differential.

I’m sure that when some of you read, “the excuses are gone,” you thought, “But Gooch and Charlie Davies probably won’t play!!” Sorry, even without them, we should be able to achieve the above results. The fact is that almost every team in South Africa will be missing a player, and many will be missing an important player. That’s just the way it is, players get hurt. Nevertheless, let’s look at these two players and what their absences will mean for the team- we’ll start with Mr. Onyewu.

While he may be back in time for the World Cup, he probably won’t be at 100%, and even if he is, I’m not sure it matters. This may not be popular, but I think we have already seen the best of Gooch. He was great at the club level in Belgium and he’s been great in CONCACAF play. His play against better competition is a different matter and that is leading me to think two things about him. First, that there’s a reason he didn’t stick in the EPL (Newcastle) or in Serie A (A.C. Milan)- prior to his injury. I think he might be more of an “athlete” than a “footballer” and that he has gone as far as he can in that regard. Second, not wanting to sell him short, I stopped and asked myself, “When I think of him, what do I think of?” The answer was that I think of a big, physical player who can intimidate opposing players (we all remember the stare-down of Mexico’s Jared Borgetti) and who is always a threat in the air on free kicks and corners. What I realized is that, basically, I had just described Alexi Lalas at his peak. Seriously. Set aside Lalas’ post-playing career and think about that for a minute or two.

As for Charlie Davies, his absence- barring an amazing recovery- is more problematic. While Davies’ speed, technical ability and willingness to take on defenders will be sorely missed, I still believe that between Dempsey, Donovan, and Altidore there are enough goals in the team to see them through the group stages successfully. The bigger issue, I believe, is does Bob Bradley have the tactical acumen to put together a side that can make the most of the team’s offensive abilities? That’s, however, is another story for another day.

In other news, there are lots of signs that the teams that broke away from the USL to form their own league may be trying to resurrect not just the “NASL” as a league name, but also many of the team names as well. So, if you were a big fan of the Atlanta Chiefs or Miami Toros, you’ve got that to look forward to this summer. If you’d like the nuts and bolts of all of this, check out a week’s worth of posts at www.mls-rumors.net, they’ve done a bang up job of ferreting out all the information on this topic.

Ross County’s rescheduled match against Greenock Morton was played this afternoon and, despite being down 0-1 at halftime, the Staggies rebounded with three second half goals. The win brings County back to third place- tied with second place Queen of the South on points, but trailing them on goal differential. They trail first place Dundee by five points and I’m fine with that- as I’ve been saying since the beginning of the season, promotion this year might be more trouble than it is worth.

My “40+” indoor team has one win and…a number of losses. What is disappointing is that, with the exception of our last match (we were rubbish), we’ve never lost by more than two goals and we’ve outscored our opponents in the second half of every match. I have run the numbers and can give you a definitive reason for both of these “issues” we’ve been having: we are a weak first half team and a strong second half team because, by the second half, all of our players have finally shown up!

For those of you who did not watch it live, Michael Owen ate VfL Wolfsburg for lunch today.