The one thing I hate about the end of the Champions League group stage is the relative lack of drama that seems to surround the final day. It always seems so rare that a big name club might actually not make it to the next round. Sure theres those scenarios where big club A needs a draw or win against a tiny Hungarian side to advance, but those are usually in the bag and not very exciting.
The good news this season is there is a good chance at least a few big clubs won’t get it done. Infact only one of the eight groups has been decided completely, and only 8 of the 16 spots have been confirmed. Sure some are far fetched but some scenarios are actually likely. By the end of Wednesday we could see teams like AC Milan, Inter Milan, Bayern Munich, and even last seasons champions-Barcelona-not playing in the knockout stage. You’re probably wondering what these scenarios are that’ll see big name teams playing in what they’d consider an inferior tournament. Well lucky for you I’ve broken down these scenarios! Join me after the jump as we look group by group at each one.
MASSIVE MORON EDIT: Ok so I was totally wrong. I had misread the tiebreaker rules to read that goal differential was the #1 tiebreaker, when it was actually head to head results. This means Liverpool is officially out and Manchester United is infact IN. Just don’t pay attention to me, I’m stupid.
Group A
Bordeaux: Has already clinched the top spot in Group A
Juventus: Advance if they win or draw against Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich: Must beat Juventus to advance
Maccabi Haifa: Have 0 points, their European adventure is over.
Group B
Manchester United: Win or draw and they finish top of the group, a loss and they finish 2nd in the group
VfL Wolfsburg: Must duplicate whatever CSKA does as they both have 7 points, Wolfsburg has the head to head advantage though
CSKA Moscow: Must outgain Wolfsburg on points.
Besiktas: Can only reach the Europa League it looks like.
Group C
Real Madrid: A win or draw sees them through. A loss by 3 goals or more to Marseille and a Milan win would knock them out.
AC Milan: A win sees them through. A draw and a draw or loss by Marseille also puts them through.
Marseille: Win by more than 3 goals or a lesser result by Milan sees them through.
FC Zürich: Sadly it’s all over for the Swiss minnows, they did better than expected though.
Group D
Chelsea: Already clinched top spot in the group.
Porto: Already Clinched 2nd place in the group.
Atlético Madrid: Need the same result as Apoel to go to the Europa League
Apoel Nicosia: Need to better Atletico to advance to Europa League
Group E
Fiorentina: Clinched spot in knockout round. A better or equal result than Lyon will see them win the group.
Lyon: A win and Fiorentina loss would see them finish top of the group
Liverpool: It’s all for the glory at this point.
Debrecen: Have 0 points and -10 GD, they’re done.
Group F
Barcelona: As long as they don’t lose by 4 goals they’re in. A draw between Rubin and Inter also sees them through.
Rubin Kazan: A win or draw against Inter will see them advance.
Inter Milan: Must beat Rubin to advance.
Dynamo Kiev: Must beat Barcelona to advance. A win by 4 goals sees them automatically through, a win and a draw in the Inter v Rubin match sees them through as well.
Group G
Sevilla: Are through to the next round, a win or draw OR Unirea draw or loss secures top spot in the group.
Unirea Urziceni: A win or draw secures their spot in the next round.
VfB Stuttgart: Must beat Unirea to advance.
Rangers: Are done. Can’t even make it to the Europa League.
Group H
Arsenal: Have secured their place in the next round.
Olympiakos: A win or draw OR Liege draw or loss sees them through.
Standard Liege: Must beat Alkmaar and hope that Arsenal beats Olympiakos to advance.
AZ Alkmaar: Need a win to advance to the Europa League.
So there you have it, a few groups are pretty boring and very few people have any reason to pay attention to them, but a few are incredibly intriuging. Personally I’ll be paying attention to group C tomorrow and group F on Wednesday. Both games in each group should have a bit of intrigue and hopefully there is some game that comes down to the last minute of action.
Your Group B scenario makes sense, and that’s the way I figured it too; but every newspaper or website I’ve read says United have already clinched advancing. How can that be?
I thought the same thing till I looked at the table and fixtures. It’s not that far fetched either. If United lose they’re in 2nd and have at best a +1 GD. If CSKA then win by 3+ goals they’re through. The more likely scenario is a 2-3 goal Wolfsburg win and a 1 or 2 goal CSKA win.
I’d think the papers would be making a big deal of this. Liverpool has already been put in the Europa League by the press even though they still have (an extremely slim) chance of making it. Plus from my understanding Vidic is out tomorrow as well.
http://msn.foxsports.com/soccer/story/10486812/Scholes-chuffed-with-CL-progress
I’d comment on United not being through, but I need to get on a plane. SAF’s been calling random fans to play in central defense tomorrow.
If you haven’t already, read the edit part. I changed a few things because I’m an idiot. Manchester United unfortunately ARE through to the next round….
[...] Scenarios for advancing in the Champions League “The one thing I hate about the end of the Champions League group stage is the relative lack of drama that seems to surround the final day. It always seems so rare that a big name club might actually not make it to the next round. Sure theres those scenarios where big club A needs a draw or win against a tiny Hungarian side to advance, but those are usually in the bag and not very exciting.” (Avoiding the Drop) [...]