Avoiding the Drop

After three wins in fourteen matches- culminating in a humiliating 3-0 loss to a “rec level” Wales squad last weekend- George Burley is out as manager of Scotland. As the title of this piece suggests, you can’t place all the blame on the manager, but… It’s worth keeping in mind that it was Burley picked the players who are now being accused of “not playing for the manager.” It’s also worth noting that Scotland scored only seven goals during his tenure as manager, and none in the final three matches he oversaw, essentially ensuring that Scotland would not qualify for the World Cup. This is noteworthy because while Scotland were busy not putting the ball in the back of the net, striker Kris Boyd was busy scoring 38 goals in 58 league and cup matches for Rangers. The same Kris Boyd who’d scored 7 goals in 15 international appearances for Scotland, including 5 in his final 6 matches. Why wasn’t Boyd playing for Scotland under George Burley? He wasn’t playing because in an important World Cup qualifying match against Norway, with the score level at 0-0, Burley left Boyd on the bench in favor of subbing in the uncapped Chris Iwelumo- who promptly missed the easiest goal in the history of recorded time and pretty much assured that Scotland would not be in the World Cup. Don’t get me wrong, Kris Boyd didn’t have to go and get all pissy and say he’d never play for Scotland (under George Burley at least) again, but for Burley to say that Boyd didn’t play in the Norway match because he had yet “to establish himself in the Rangers team, which he hasn’t done” was ridiculous given the actual number Boyd was putting up even though he was generally coming off the bench at Rangers. (It also raises the question of why Burley would pick a player that he had no intention of using?!) Unfortunately for Burley, it this was only the second stupidest thing he has said publicly. “Number One” came after the recent debacle in Cardiff when he said that he “couldn’t explain” what had happened to cause Scotland to play so poorly. George, George, George…saying that only does one things- it confirms that you probably weren’t smart enough to have the job in the first place. If you were, you’d at least have known enough to make something up!

Anyway, George Burley’s “reign of terror” is over and now the fun(?) begins. Scotland do not have another match- a friendly against the Czech Republic- until March, so there’s plenty of time to get the “hot stove” going before naming the man who will lead Scotland into qualifying for Poland/Ukraine 2012. I’ll cover everybody (believe me!) who may or may not be in the running to replace Burley, but I need to make one thing perfectly clear- the “Scotland job” ain’t what it used to be. Several BBC pundits have even gone as far as calling it a “poisoned chalice” in recent days. My point being that, while I’ll cover all of the potential candidates, there are only a few categories of people who are going to actually “want” this job- those without a job at present, those seeing it as a stepping stone to something bigger, and those so blinded by patriotism that they won’t be able to help themselves if they are offered the job. The list below contains people whose names (with two exceptions that I’ll note) have come up “in the discussion” online, in the papers, or on “the Beeb”- I’m not just pulling names out of the thin air. I’ll offer a little of my own primitive handicapping to give you an idea of the likelihood of each candidate being the next Scotland manager.

David Moyes: The current Everton boss- and three time LMA “Manager of the Year”- would be my first choice. He did great things at Preston North End and he’s done about as much as anyone can do at Everton given the club’s resources- if anything, he’s probably overachieved. Sadly, there’s not a chance he’ll take the job. He’s going to get an offer from a bigger EPL club at some point whether he’s been the Scotland manager or not. Maybe in 10 or 12 years when he’s got nothing left to prove, he’ll take the job, but not now. Chance that he’s the next Scotland manager?: 0%

Walter Smith: The current Rangers manager and former Scotland manager has declared himself “out,” and that’s probably the right move. Scotland did well during his brief time at the helm, but he left as soon as the first big club came calling and, if nothing else, the Tartan Army has a long memory when they feel abandoned, betrayed, what have you. Chance that he’s the next Scotland manager?: 0%

Ossie Ardiles: I’m only including Osvaldo in this list because he is a choice in The Scotsman’s current “Who should replace George Burley?” poll. Why he is on the list is a mystery to me- he has no connection to Scotland that I’m aware of, and he hasn’t had a job since being sacked by Paraguayan(!?) side Cerro Porteño over a year ago. Also, as a manager, he’s been mediocre at best- 14 clubs in 19 years, you do the math. Chance that he’s the next Scotland manager?: 0%

Sir Alex Ferguson: Look, I said I was including everyone whose name has been in the discussion, I didn’t say those discussions had been “rational.” Sure, have Sir Alex back in charge would be great, but I think you’re more likely to see him manage Manchester City than you are to see him back patrolling the sidelines for Scotland. Chance that he’s the next Scotland manager?: 0%

Alex McLeish: I would love to see Big Eck back in charge of the national side again- the country won seven of ten matches under his guidance- and drew the other three- before he left to take over at Birmingham City. He also has impeccable credentials from his playing days- 77 caps, three World Cups, three SPL titles, five Scottish Cups, two Scottish League Cups, a European Cup Winners Cup, and a European Super Cup. Not bad, eh? Unfortunately, the next time he changes jobs it will be for a better team in the EPL. Chance that he’s the next Scotland manager?: 0%

Graeme Souness: He has the pedigree as a player, but his managerial record- despite being at some big clubs- is “fair” tending towards “poor.” He’s also publicly ruled himself out of the running for the post and, while doing so, had some harsh things to say about the “heart” of the current crop of players. As much as I don’t like to mix my politics with my soccer, Souness is an opponent of Scottish independence, and as such I don’t want him in charge of “our” team anyway. Chance that he’s the next Scotland manager?: 0%

Csaba Lazlo: Who?! Whether you know it or not, Lazlo, a Romanian of Hungarian extraction, is the current manager at Heart of Midlothian and, despite not being asked, he’s made it known that he would be interested in the job. Lazlo’s time in charge at Hearts has been the most stable of any the managers since the “Lithuanian Takeover” some years ago, and that alone speaks well of him. If you’re wondering what kind of “character” he is, I would say that he’s the footballing equivalent of gymnastics coach Bela Karolyi- maybe he’s a genius, but he’s definitely mad. He also has the propensity to say whatever is on his mind- whether it’s appropriate or not. Chance that he’s the next Scotland manager?: 0%

Kenny Dalglish: It’s hard to complain about Dalglish’s qualifications- he was a world class player and a decent manager with Liverpool, Newcastle, Blackburn, and Celtic. What is hard to ignore, however, is that it has been almost a decade since he last managed a team (Celtic) and although he has been linked to numerous jobs- including this one- during that period, he has not taken or gotten any of them. Dalglish is currently back at Liverpool where he is the “Head of Academy International Recruitment and Development” and with Rafa Benetiz’s future now in doubt, rumors have started about a “move” within the club. Chance that he’s the next Scotland manager?: 1%

Owen Coyle: All things being equal, Owen Coyle might just be the perfect man for the job. As a player he got more out of himself than anyone could have ever expected, and as a manager he has shown the same ability with the players at St. Johnstone and now at Burnley. And that’s the problem, there’s no way he’ll ever leave Burnley for this job because there are going to be bigger and better EPL jobs opening up to him in the next few years. If for some reason he did take the Scotland job, we’ll have to decided if he is the country’s second “foreign” coach or not. He was capped once for Ireland, but was born in Scotland and played there for all 22(!) years of his career- he even played in five matches (scoring twice!) for Ross County! Chance that he’s the next Scotland manager?: 1%

Brian McClair: This is the first of the names that I came up with all by myself. McClair brings a pretty impressive C.V. with him. He had long spells at both Celtic and Manchester United where he scored a lot of goals for a player who played as much in the midfield as he did in the forward line, and he earned thirty caps for his country. McClair is currently the Directory of the Youth Academy at Manchester United and that might lead one to assume that he’s being groomed to take over the senior side for Sir Alex at some point, but honestly, in all the speculation about Ferguson’s successor, have you ever heard his name mentioned? I haven’t, and that might be enough to generate some interest in the job on his part- if not on the S.F.A.’s. Chance that he’s the next Scotland manager?: 1%

Craig Brown: This is one I just don’t get. It’s not that Brown was bad as Scotland manager (32-18-20), in fact his winning percentage was a bit higher than that of the better regarded Walter Smith, but his time at the helm ended so poorly that the SFA brought in the only non-Scot to ever coach the national side- Berti Vogts. Now that was a debacle. My issue with bringing back Brown is that he hasn’t been “in the game” since a mediocre two year spell at Preston North End that concluded in 2004. That, and he’ll turn 70 in July. Chance that he’s the next Scotland manager?: 1%

Billy Davies: Seriously? Why? Because he’s Scottish and a manager? I’m as much of a homer and a patriot as the next Scotland supporter, but this is a non-starter. I honestly have nothing against the man- with the exception of the disaster he presided over at the end of his time at Derby County- he’d done alright, albeit at middling clubs (Motherwell, Preston North End, & Nottingham Forest). However, there is nothing- including his uncapped playing experience- to suggest that he has what it takes to be an international manager. Chance that he’s the next Scotland manager?: 1%

Ricky Sbragia: This is the other name I did pull out of the ether along with that of Brian McClair. Sbragia was an average player (he spent most of his career with York City) and as a manager he has only one year of experience (2008-2009) when, following the departure of Roy Keane from Sunderland, he stepped in and managed to keep the club in the Premier League. What I think Sbragia really has going for him is an eye for talent. He’s been a youth and reserve team coach at Sunderland, coached Darren Fletcher in the reserves at Manchester United, and was a bench coach at Bolton. He is currently the chief scout for Sunderland, and given how much they’ve improved in the last year, he might be a diamond in the rough. At the very least he should be offered a position on the staff of the new Scotland manager. Chance that he’s the next Scotland manager?: 1%

Joe Jordan: Currently on Harry Redknapp’s staff at Tottenham, Jordan is the only Scottish player to appear in three World Cups, he had successful spells at Leeds and Manchester United as a player, and also spent three seasons in Serie A, two of them with A.C. Milan. As a manager Jordan had some early success at Bristol City and Hearts, but didn’t fare as well at Stoke or in a second stint at Bristol City. Before becoming a first team coach at Spurs he was the caretaker manager for Portsmouth on two occasions, most recently in 2008. Despite making his career as a forward, Jordan was well-known for being a “hard man,” something Scotland could use at the moment. Chance that he’s the next Scotland manager?: 2%

Ally McCoist: Is there a reason that “Super Ally” was making such a push for Walter Smith to return as Scotland manager? Why, yes, there is! Ally has had just about enough of being “groomed” to take over for Smith at Rangers and if Smith left to take the Scotland job it would suddenly be, “his time.” So, it’s unlikely that he’s going to throw that away all the time he’s put in at Rangers to helm what appears to be a sinking ship. That being said, other than lacking experience as a “head coach,” his resume is stellar: he’s an assistant at a big club, was Smith’s assistant for Scotland, was a proven goal scorer for club and country, and last, but certainly not least, he’s from the same town (Bellshill) as my Gram! Chance that he’s the next Scotland manager?: 2%

Jim Jefferies: Jefferies, somewhat like Billy Davies, is one of those people whose name always seems to be in the discussion for this, or just about any other job in Scotland. He is, as far as I know, a nice guy with a perfectly commendable background as a player and a manager. You’d have to give him a “leg up” on Davies if only because he’s won a few more cups and league titles. Then again, he’s never managed outside of Scotland, something Davies has, if not to great acclaim. Chance that he’s the next Scotland manager?: 5%

Mark McGhee: If this isn’t a saying in Scotland, it should be: “Nobody doesn’t like Mark McGhee.” He was a big part of “those” Sir Alex Ferguson-led teams at Aberdeen in the 1980’s, was a successful player in England (two spells at Newcastle United), spent a successful year in the Bundesliga (Hamburg), and to date, has been a reasonably successful manager in England (though not at the highest level), and a successful one in Scotland, particularly under difficult circumstances at Motherwell. However, because he is so well liked (and respected too), his name comes up all the time, for everything. He’s currently in his first year at Aberdeen, and should he do well there, I think he’d be a legitimate candidate to lead the national side, but not quite yet. Chance that he’s the next Scotland manager?: 10%

Jimmy Calderwood: Of those on the “nice guy” list (Davies, Jefferies, McGhee, and Calderwood), Calderwood probably has the most useful background. As a player he spent the better part of a decade at Birmingham City before a successful decade at several Dutch clubs. After his playing career he also managed in the Netherlands before returning to lead Dunfermline and then Aberdeen. During his five year stint with the Dons he led them to as much or more domestic and European success as any non “Old Firm” club during the same period. Calderwood has been without a club since his departure from Aberdeen in May of this year. Chance that he’s the next Scotland manager?: 10%

Gary McAllister: Gary was offered the “third position” under George Burley just a few weeks before Burley was sacked, but unexpectedly turned it down. A week later he turned down a coaching job at Portsmouth.. At the very least, these two events makes me say, “Hmm…” McAllister had a stellar playing career on both the club and country levels (he was a well-respected team captain in both cases), but was booed off the pitch in his last match for Scotland, not so much for his actions, but for being the captain of a lackluster side. I think he deserves a little “redemption.” For that reason, and the fact that he’s one of my favorite players ever, I’d like to see “The Enforcer” at least get a look for this job. Chance that he’s the next Scotland manager?: 25%

John Collins: Of those candidates on this list that can be taken seriously, Collins is the one who has been most vocal about wanting the job. As I said above, you can take this as a sign of his commitment to “the cause,” or as an early sign of dementia. Whatever the case, he brings a lot to the table. He has all the things you’d expect- plenty of caps, playing and managerial experience in Scotland and on the Continent, World Cup and European Championship experience, and numerous individual honors. More than any of this, however, he has a reputation for being, what we here in the States would call, a “hard ass.” He believes in things like training, fitness, and a proper diet- some things from which every Scottish player could benefit. Chance that he’s the next Scotland manager?: 50%

Craig Levein: The current Dundee United skipper seems to be the consensus front-runner among Scotland’s football punditry. Levein himself is currently busy saying “all the right things” when asked whether he is interested in the job, specifically, “that it wouldn’t be fair to Dundee United to make any comment at this time,” or words to that effect. Put another way, if the SFA want him, they should come and get him, he’s not going to “put himself out there” only to get snubbed. Why is he the front runner? For two basic, and very good reasons. First, he’s a good manager. Despite having little to work with financially- and in terms of talent, if I’m being honest- he’s kept United nipping at the heels of the Old Firm and been close to getting into Europe on several occasions. Reason number two? Scotland need a kick up the bahookie at the moment and Craig Levein is just the man to do it. This is, after all, the same man who was hit with a twelve match ban after breaking a teammate’s nose during a preseason friendly while at Hearts. Chance that he’s the next Scotland manager?: 75%

So, there you have it.

Whether you want it or not.