Avoiding the Drop

One of the side effects of having international soccer is that countries don’t always put their nonsporting issues aside during those matches. As Americans, we’re familiar with this phenomenon; the U.S. national team is frequently pelted with insults, abuse, and the occasional baggie filled with urine whenever they travel abroad as a result of whatever anti-American sentiment is lingering out there.

In 1989, the lingering animosity between Algeria and Egypt boiled over in a World Cup qualifier that’s since been charmingly dubbed the “Hate Match”. Egypt needed a win; Algeria needed a draw. Egypt prevailed 1-0 on the day, causing the Algerian fans and players – who felt the referee was biased against them – to assail the field while he was on it. After the ref had been removed to safety, the angry Algerians – crammed into a stadium with 125,000 people – turned their attention on the VIP area. The VIP sections were adorned with potted plants; the Algerian rioters used those same plants as missles; star Algerian striker Lakhdar Belloumi hit the Egyptian team doctor in the head with one, blinding him in one eye.

So there’s a little history going into today’s next month’s match. Unfortunately for FIFA, it’s also possible that the end result might mean that a coin toss is all that separates these two teams.

Here’s the table for CAF Group C. Unlike in Europe, there’s no “playoff” for second place; the first place team goes, the second place team doesn’t. Pretty simple. As you can see, Egypt is three points – a win – behind Algeria; a draw does them no good. Also, they need to do more than just win: they need to overcome their goal differential deficit. A win by one goal does them nothing; a win by three goals puts them through. Algeria won the first match (in Algeria) 3-1.

The issue comes in if Egypt happens to win by two goals. Before we continue, though, let’s briefly familiarize ourselves with FIFA’s tiebreaking procedures:

1. Goal difference in all group matches
2. Greater number of goals scored in all group matches
3. Greater number of points obtained in matches between the tied teams (i.e., head to head)
4. Goal difference in matches between the tied teams
5. Greater number of goals scored in matches between the tied teams
6. Drawing of lots, or a play-off (if approved by FIFA)

Notice that there’s no “away goal” rule here; all goals are equal. So if Egypt wins by two goals, the entire thing gets screwed up.

1. Goal difference in all group matches would be even (Egypt would gain two; Algeria would lose two. They’d both be at +5)
2. Greater number of goals scored in all group matches would be even (since Egypt is two behind Algeria, any result that has Egypt winning by two makes this level)
3. Greater number of points obtained in matches between the two teams would be tied (both would have one win, or three points).
4. Goal difference would be even (Algeria won by two the first time, Egypt would have won by two the second time).
5. Greater number of goals scored would also be even (pretty much the same deal as #2)

That would mean that the representative to the World Cup from Group C of CAF would be determined by either an open draw or by scheduling another “Hate Match” game. The result needed to obtain this bizarre set of circumstances is also not particularly rare; in fact, it’s pretty easy to see Egypt winning by two goals at home.

So while you’re perusing results throughout the day ON NOVEMBER 14th, keep an eye on the Egypt-Algeria tie and root for a two-goal win by Egypt, even if it’s only because that’ll force FIFA into an awkward spot of rescheduling a heated rivalry or picking a name out of a hat.

EDIT: A helpful reader has pointed out that this match does not, in fact, take place today. I apologize for the confusion; I saw the “11/14″ date and somehow transported myself a month into the future. However, the rest of the piece is spot on. I think.

Twenty years on, the ‘hate match’ between Egypt and Algeria is on again [The Guardian]