Avoiding the Drop

We’re down to the final stretch of World Cup qualifying, 1 more game for everyone (Except group 9 in UEFA) to determine who gets to go to the World Cup in South Africa, and who’s staying home. Many of the spots have been claimed already, but there are still spots available. Asia and Oceania have finalized their spots, but they still have a playoff with the 5th place Asian team to determine if New Zealand can make the World Cup.

We here at Avoiding the Drop headquarters have come up on some debts, I won’t bore you with the details but don’t ever bet all your money on a Titus Bramble hat trick, just don’t.

So in order to subsidize this we’re making odds and taking bets on the remaining UEFA World Cup spots. You might wonder where you can send your money to and what sort of currency we take? Well no problem good sir (or madam) we….
…deal only in Giggsy’s!

Giggsy’s are only available in Western Massachusetts and are accepted nowhere, and can’t be exchanged for any other type of currency. They’ve actually been around for a while, but somehow have gained value in recent years. So buy up your Giggsy’s now, they’re exchanging at an impressive rate of $100:1 Giggsy so get them right now while they’re hot!

There are still 11 teams fighting for just 4 possible spots, some of the teams have real smooth sailing to get a spot, others do not. Today we’re going to take a look and see who matters in UEFA and who should just go home now.

(Note: As far as the scenarios as to how a team can make it in, I’ve removed the silly ones that involve ridiculous 7 goal differentials and what not, they certainly can happen, but they probably won’t)

Now onto the odds:

Portugal
-ODDS: 3/2

• Portugal will qualify for the UEFA play-offs if:
  • they defeat Malta, OR
  • they draw with Malta AND Sweden do not defeat Albania, OR
  • they lose to Malta AND:
    • either:
      • Hungary do not defeat Denmark
    • either:
      • Sweden lose to Albania, OR
      • Sweden draw with Albania AND Portugal lose to Malta by at most two goals

Portugal was in a precarious position a few months back, it certainly didn’t look like they’d end up even making the Play-off’s for a World Cup spot. However, as it is with most of these big countries they’ve managed to pull it together. A win puts them in, a loss sees them out. Luckily they play Malta, who haven’t scored yet in qualifying.

Sweden
-ODDS: 20/1

• Sweden will qualify for the UEFA play-offs if:
  • they defeat Albania AND Portugal do not defeat Malta.

Sweden have a tough go of it. They’ll probably beat Albania, but it’s highly doubtful Portugal falter against Malta, their run is over.

Hungary
-ODDS: 100/1

• Hungary will qualify for the UEFA play-offs if:
  • they defeat Denmark by at least five goals AND Sweden do not defeat Albania AND Portugal lose to Malta AND:
    • the combined margin of Portugal’s loss and Hungary’s victory is at least eight goals, OR
    • the combined margin is exactly seven goals AND Hungary score at least five more goals than Portugal.

Hungary need way too much to happen for them, Portugal is not going to lose to Malta, and Hungary can’t beat Denmark by more than 1-2 goals, they’re toast.

Greece
-ODDS: 2/1

• Greece will finish second and qualify for the UEFA play-offs if:
  • Greece defeat Luxembourg OR Israel do not defeat Switzerland, AND:
    • Greece do not lose to Luxembourg, OR
    • Latvia do not defeat Moldova

Greece looks like they’ll probably do this, they beat Luxembourg by 3 goals last time they played, and I’d imagine they’ll do something similar this time around. It’s pretty safe to book Greece’s place in the play-off’s

Israel
-ODDS: 12/1

• Israel will finish second and qualify for the UEFA play-offs if:
  • they defeat Switzerland AND Greece do not defeat Luxembourg.

This one’s a little tricky, while they could certainly beat Switzerland, they need some serious help from Luxembourg in the form of a draw if they hope to get through. It’s doable, but not probable.

Latvia
-ODDS: 80/1

• Latvia will finish second and qualify for the UEFA play-offs if:
  • they defeat Moldova AND Israel do not defeat Switzerland AND Greece lose to Luxembourg AND:
    • the combined margin of Latvia’s victory and Greece’s loss is eight goals or greater, OR
    • the combined margin is exactly seven goals AND Latvia score at least four more goals than Greece.

They have a better chance than Hungary, but this scenario is a little crazy.

Slovenia
-ODDS: 5/4

• Slovenia will finish second and qualify for the UEFA play-offs if:
  • they defeat San Marino AND Slovakia defeat Poland, OR
  • they do not defeat San Marino AND Czech Republic and Northern Ireland draw, OR
  • they draw with San Marino AND Northern Ireland defeat Czech Republic, OR
  • they lose to San Marino AND Northern Ireland defeat Czech Republic AND:
    • the combined margin of those two games is six goals or fewer, OR
    • the combined margin is exactly seven goals AND Northern Ireland do not score three more goals than Slovenia.

Another win and you’re in scenario against a weak team. San Marino have actually been pretty tough at home, and by pretty tough I mean they’ve only lost by 2 or 3 goals there. Slovenia will probably win easily, so they have little to worry about.

Czech Republic
-ODDS: 25/1

• Czech Republic will finish second and qualify for the UEFA play-offs if:
  • they defeat Northern Ireland AND Slovenia do not defeat San Marino

This could happen, but no. As I said above there really is no way Slovenia draw or lose to San Marino. I’d bet the Czech’s will beat Northern Ireland, but it’s all going to be for not, unless they send some players to San Marino.

Northern Ireland
-ODDS: 200/1

• Northern Ireland will finish second and qualify for the UEFA play-offs if:
  • they defeat Czech Republic AND Slovenia lose to San Marino AND:
    • the combined margin of those two games is eight goals or greater, OR
    • the combined margin is exactly seven goals AND Northern Ireland score at least three more goals than Slovenia

Again, impossible. They need to basically score 7 goals because even if Slovenia do end up losing to San Marino, they’re probably only losing by 1 goal. This is not happening, sorry Northern Ireland.

Ukraine
-ODDS: 4/3

• Ukraine will finish second and qualify for the UEFA play-offs if:
  • they defeat Andorra, OR
  • Croatia lose to Kazakhstan, OR
  • Croatia draw with Kazakhstan AND:
    • Ukraine draw with Andorra or lose by no more than three goals, OR
    • Ukraine lose by four goals but score at least three more goals than Croatia.

Jeez, yet another team sitting in 2nd place playing the basement dwellers. Seriously who set up the schedule? Way to make things anti-climatic UEFA. Ukraine scored 5 goals against Andorra last time they played, they’re going to score at least a few again, I’d book their spot right now.

Croatia
-ODDS: 30/1

• Croatia will finish second and qualify for the UEFA play-offs if:
  • they defeat Kazakhstan AND Ukraine do not defeat Andorra, OR
  • they draw with Kazakhstan AND:
    • Ukraine lose to Andorra by five or more goals, OR
    • Ukraine lose to Andorra by four goals and score at most one more goal than Croatia.

Croatia will more than likely win this one, but they really need Andorra to play super spoiler and beat Ukraine. I don’t see that happening ever, so sadly Croatia is probably out.

So who are your favorite and who are you betting your Giggsy’s on?