Avoiding the Drop

How much does Jamie Carragher miss those two?

Fresh off of a 6-1 win over Hull City, the Reds fanbase – who’d been slowly regaining a little confidence in their team – was sharply reminded how well Liverpool play against teams that haven’t recently been promoted. Sure, it’s fun watching them score fourteen goals against Stoke, Hull, and Burnley; what’s less fun is watching teams like Tottenham, Aston Villa, and (now) Fiorentina run roughshod over them.

Much has been made about the fact that Liverpool aren’t drawing as many matches as last year, and that’s true; what’s not being mentioned is that some games they’ve lost are games they would’ve drawn last season. The biggest problem is the defense: last year a strength, it’s now becoming more and more of a liability.

So what’s gone wrong? Let’s talk about it.

1) They lost Xabi Alonso. This is the biggest change from last year, and early on it was mentioned as a reason that the offense was misfiring. Outside of the Tottenham opener, however,  the offense hasn’t been misfiring; this time last year, they’d only scored seven goals, while they’re already sitting at more than three times that mark this season.

The thing that Alonso brought to Liverpool’s team was a more offensive-minded partner for Javier Mascherano. For all of Steven Gerrard’s ability, he’s not particularly good at doing what Alonso and Mascherano did last season: sitting in front of the centerbacks, intercepting through balls, and playing off of each other. Typically, Mascherano would collect the ball and then pass it off to Alonso, who was never far away from him.

Alonso himself was rarely played in a forward role. He usually sat back alongside Mascherano, which gave the centerbacks a nice “shield”; if Mascherano had been in the game against Fiorentina, there’s a good chance that the through ball that sprung Jovetic for the first goal would’ve been caught by him.

Look at the replay of Jovetic’s first goal:

See how much time Zanetti has? That’s an area that Mascherano and/or Alonso would’ve defended in the past, by forcing Zanetti to go one way or another far earlier and allowing the defense to challenge him. Skrtel’s stuck trying to cut off angles without diving in; there’s not much more he can do. The goal comes from a quick counter, because Lucas and Gerrard were both up “attacking” (or whatever it was they were doing in the first half).

Lucas – the positional replacement for Alonso – is a different kind of central midfielder. He’s not quite as bad as he’s been portrayed on an individual skill basis; he’s just playing a different game, and it’s taking time to adjust to that role. Where Alonso would sit back, Lucas wants to go forward. The same problem is present with Gerrard, who’s known for his ability to arrive late in the opposition area. With Alonso and Mascherano behind him last year, he could go forward without worrying about his defensive duties; now he needs to get back or the space he vacated could be exploited. When Gerrard and Lucas play at the same time in the central midfield, it effectively doubles the problem, and it’s part of why Fiorentina were able to run right at Martin Skrtel.

It’s not just Fiorentina, though; West Ham’s Zavon Hines found that space to be particularly inviting, running instead directly at Jamie Carragher. He didn’t score (in fact, only three goals this season have been conceded from open play, and two of them were in the Champions League match against Fiorentina), but he tore up Carragher; Diamanti’s penalty kick was directly caused by Carragher’s inability to handle Hines. Mascherano was in that match, but so was Lucas; the 4-2-3-1 requires two holders to work, and the insistence to push Lucas up contributed to the lack of defensive help in front of Carragher.

Further complicating the problem is that Alberto Aquilani, who’s waiting in the wings to replace Lucas at the moment, is more of a “get forward with the ball” style of central midfielder; even when he’s fit, this problem will need to be addressed. Daniel Agger – who’s more athletic than Skrtel and Carragher – could perhaps help, but his fitness is constantly a concern.

2) Glen Johnson and Emiliano Insua are better wingers than fullbacks. Johnson was Liverpool’s prize free agent this offseason; Insua is the Argentinian U-20 captain. Both of them are good on the ball, quick, and good at crossing; neither of them, however, is a traditional fullback.

That’s a problem. See, the centerbacks are already exposed in front; when Johnson and Insua advance to join the attack, they leave the sides vulnerable to counterattacks. The lack of quality marking only contributes to the problem; Fiorentina’s second goal was a comical breakdown along both flanks.

See how much space Vargas has when he gets the cross? That’s Johnson’s man, a fact Johnson realizes far too late as he tries to close him down. By the time that’s happened, it’s already over; Vargas has crossed the ball, Jovetic (who appears to have arrived late with Fabio Aurelio trailing) has hit it, and it’s all over.

It’s not that Johnson and Insua shouldn’t go forward; really, the team is relying on them to provide width. They NEED to get forward. The problem is that they shouldn’t do it at the same time, and that somebody still needs to concern themselves with defensive duties. Right now, that’s not really happening; the flanks are often left wide open. Since Gerrard and/or Lucas is also forward, it makes Liverpool especially vulnerable to the counterattack if their fullbacks are caught forward as well.

Last season, of course, this was different. Fabio Aurelio and Alvaro Arbeloa got forward on occasion, but they didn’t spend their whole time moving forward. Instead, they played much more conservatively, staying home when necessary; with Aurelio returning to fitness, I’d wonder if we’ll see him overtake Insua for a starting spot sooner rather than later. That would leave Johnson more free to rampage up and down his flank; the three remaining defenders could account for his absence simply by shifting to the right.

3) Carragher’s getting too old for this. Last year’s formation suited Carragher well. He’s good at organizing a defense, and he’s good at positioning himself ahead of time so he’s in the best possible space to make a tackle. Carragher isn’t going to beat you in a foot race, though, as Zavon Hines pointed out. He’s also not going to close down with lightning pace, either; it’s not a “bad player/good player” thing, it’s just not the game he’s trying to play. That puts a lot more pressure on Reina and Skrtel (or Agger, if he’s ever healthy), which they’re probably not able to handle over the length of the season.

Again, this hasn’t resulted in goals; watching Liverpool play, though, that’s simply due to luck and Reina’s good keeping. The defense is stretched thin at the moment, and with Liverpool facing a much more tactically sound side than they’ve faced this season in Chelsea on Sunday I wonder if there’s a formation shift just over the horizon.