Avoiding the Drop

That’s right, boys and girls: it’s that time again. The wheat has been separated from the chaff, the cream has risen to the top, and what we have left is eight groups of four teams and more games than you can possibly watch in the middle of the week.

Working against you this year is the fact that the games are on Fox; the network’s done a pretty good job in the presentation, but they don’t have a ESPN360-esque delivery platform to show off their pretty new toy, and with all of the games kicking off at 2:45PM EST, you’re likely at work when they kick off. That means your DVR will probably be working overtime to get all of these matches in…or you’ll need to figure out “another method”.

Fortunately, Fox seems to have covered all of the English teams; however, part of the reason leagues outside of the Premiership aren’t followed well stateside is that there’s no coverage of their games available to viewers here. That said, I probably wouldn’t watch most those games if they were available; I’m just kind of sticking up for the principle. Let’s look at tomorrow’s matches.

Beşiktaş J.K. v. Manchester United F.C.
Fox Sports Network
Fox Soccer Channel (10:00 PM EST)

The last time Beşiktaş faced off against an English team was back in 2007-08 Group Stage, when they went to Anfield and lost 8-0. That loss is the biggest ever suffered in the history of the Champions League. In fact, in six matches against English opposition, Beşiktaş have only won once. That game was to the exact same Liverpool side only a few weeks before the 8-0 win, and it came at home.

Manchester United should make note of that. Their group isn’t necessarily the most difficult in terms of talent; it’s difficult in terms of travel, however, and they don’t want to get into a situation where they’re dropping points to draws or losses early on in the group stage. Still, Manchester United are going into this match as heavy favorites, and rightly so: not counting last year’s final, they haven’t lost an away match since May of 2007.
Beşiktaş +550/Manchester United -200/Draw +260

Chelsea F.C. v. F.C. Porto
Setanta
Fox Soccer Channel (9/18/09, 3:00 AM)

These two teams have played each other four times; the series stands at two wins for Chelsea, one for Porto, and one draw. Porto don’t do particularly well against English clubs in England (having two draws and ten losses in twelve matches), and Chelsea haven’t lost at Stamford Bridge since 2006; additionally, two of Porto’s ten road losses to English opposition were suffered to Chelsea. Also, Porto have only started their group stage campaign with a win one time: last year’s 3-1 win over Fenerbahçe.

Which is a really roundabout way of saying “history isn’t on Porto’s side.” However, they do have one break going for them: both Jose Bosingwa and Didier Drogba will begin serving their UEFA bans for misconduct in their semifinal loss to Barcelona with this game. Drogba’s been on fire for Chelsea this season, and could be a real loss up front.

A fun aside: several Chelsea players formerly played for Porto; Ricardo Carvalho, Paulo Ferreira, Henrique Hilario, Jose Bosingwa, and Deco are all Porto alumni.
Chelsea -330/Porto +800/Draw +330

Olympique de Marseille v. A.C. Milan
Fox Soccer Channel

Marseille and Milan have faced off three times, and Marseilles has never come away without a victory. That said, they haven’t met since 1993, back when they were a dominant force in Ligue 1. Their last meeting was notable for another reason: it was the first final of the Champions League, which replaced the competition’s previous iteration as the European Champions’ Club Cup.

Marseille have been on a tear in Ligue 1. While they’re 14-game winning streak was snapped by a scoreless draw against Bordeaux right before the international break; they followed that match up with a 2-1 away win against La Mans over the weekend. Marseille only barely missed out on being the champions of Ligue 1; that honor went to Bordeaux, and both teams were able to finish above Lyon, the seven time champions of France.

In contrast, Milan seem to be in a bit of a rebuilding year after Carlo Ancelotti departed for Chelsea; Leonardo’s still finding his way as a manager, and the team is trying to cope with life after Kaká as a central attacking force and Maldini as an enforcer at the back. Their opening day 4-0 derby loss to Inter was the largest loss to their crosstown rivals since 1974, and they failed to beat Livorno over the weekend.
Marseille +125/AC Milan +200/Draw +210

FC Zürich v. Real Madrid C.F.
Fox Sports en Español

Good news for FC Zürich fans: your team made the Champions League Group Stage! Bad news: your group is Real Madrid, Marseille, and AC Milan. FC Zürich is going to struggle to get a single point out of this group; between Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema, and Kaká, Real Madrid could quite possibly eclipse Liverpool’s afore-mentioned 8-0 win over Beşiktaş.

The last time these two teams met was the European Champions Club Cup back in 1964; Real Madrid won 8-1 on aggregate over two legs (the one goal was scored in the 71′ of the second leg, so Real Madrid may or may not have been paying attention). That’s not to say, however, that they’re invulnerable to the Swiss; they’ve actually lost to four Swiss teams in their history, the most recent being a 2-0 loss in Zürich to Grasshoppers…in 1978. On aggregate, over 14 games, they’ve scored 44 goals and allowed 11; this is going to be a massacre.
FC Zürich +800/Real Madrid -333/Draw +350

Juventus F.C. v. FC Girondins de Bordeaux
DirecTV
Fox Soccer Channel (9/16/09, 2:00 AM)

This is actually a fairly interesting match that you probably won’t get to watch because Fox is airing Real Madrid’s inevitable napalming of FC Zürich instead. On one hand, you have Juventus, surging forward in La Liga behind new signing Diego; on the other hand, you have Bordeaux, the surprise champions of Ligue 1, battling to add a little legitimacy to their title. The other heavyweight in this group is Bayern Munich; between Juventus, Bayern, and Boredeaux, one of them is obviously going home, so matches between those three are of the utmost importance.

But, hey, enjoy that Zürich game. I bet the Real Madrid “B” team will look really good.
Juventus -182/Bordeaux +500/+250

Clube Atlético de Madrid v. APOEL FC
DirecTV

These teams have something in common: neither of them have ever beaten a team from the other’s home country. In APOEL’s case, they have managed two draws (against Espanyol and Deportivo La Coruña), while Atlético’s lack of wins against Cypriot teams is mostly due to them never having met a team from Cyprus in competition.

APOEL will be hoping and praying that they can get draw #3 today in the Calderon, but the reality is that Atlético – who play a style that’s been described as “cavalier”, “reckless”, and “entertaining” – will probably enjoy a multiple goal lead. Atlético’s issue is in midfield; they don’t tend to hold the ball really well in the center of the pitch, which allows opposing teams a lot of possession; it’s not always in a good area, but an opportunistic team could possibly exploit that weakness. Atlético are also without John Heitinga, who up and left to Everton; in theory, that’s a weakness that APOEL could exploit.

That’s not to knock Cyprus teams, however; this is the second year in a row the tiny island has been represented in the group stage. Last year, Anorthosis Famagusta was the surprise team in their group, coming within a whisker of advancing to the Round of 16.

Also: technically, APOEL leads the group, as the default ranking is alphabetical.
Atlético -625/APOEL +1600/Draw +450

Maccabi Haifa F.C. v. FC Bayern München
DirecTV

True confession time: I love me some Arjen Robben. I know he’s a douche, and I know he was particularly douchey to Liverpool before I was paying attention; none of that takes away from the way he plays, though, and I really enjoy watching him work the flanks. I really don’t like Real Madrid, so it was always kind of awkward for me: how do I root for a guy who plays on a team I really dislike?

The answer? Wait until he moves to a team you don’t really care much about. I’m absolutely thrilled, therefore, that Robben went over to Bayern, even though that move doesn’t really make any sense (Bayern wasn’t exactly hurting for wingers). It seems to have worked out well for Bayern, too; they just smacked Borussia Dortmund around in a 5-1 win.

What does that have to do with this match? Well, nothing. Maccabi Haifa’s the Zürich of this group; if they pick up any points at all, it’ll probably be against Bordeaux.
Maccabi Haifa +600/Bayern Munich -227/Draw +250

VfL Wolfsburg v. PFC CSKA Moskva
DirecTV

Such is the state of the global game that a match between a German team and a Russian team is a perfect stage to show off some younger Brazilian talent. Both clubs have their own Brazilian star: Grafite for Wolfsburg, Guilherme for CSKA. Wolfsburg actually boasts one of the most prolific striker pairings Germany’s ever seen in Edin Džeko and Grafite.

CSKA Moscow is well equipped to deal with them, however; Russian keeper Igor Afinkeev is widely hailed as one of the best of his generation. Unfortunately, the Russians might be a little weak at left back since Yuri Zhirkov left for Chelsea over the summer. They’ll be assisted by a manager who may have some ideas about how to put a side together, though; Juande Ramos – formerly of Tottenham and Real Madrid – stepped in to replace former coach Zico just last week. The aforementioned Guilherme – on loan from Dynamo Kiev – has a strike rate that will probably come back to earth; in his one appearance for CSKA Moscow, he bagged a brace.

As an aside, there are a ton of Football Manager stars in this game. Igor Afinkeev, Guilherme, Tomáš Necid, Edin Džeko, and Diego Benaglio are all top class in my current save. I’m actually kind of interested in this match, frankly, and it may be the one I stream follow at work.
Wolfsburg -133/CSKA Moskva +330/Draw +240