Avoiding the Drop

This past weekend things finally began to sort themselves out in MLS. The first team- New York- was mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and while three others still have a chance to make it- Kansas City, F.C. Dallas, and San Jose- only Real Salt Lake, Toronto F.C., and the New England Revolution have a realistic shot at getting back into one of the eight spots in the post season. The Red Bulls will probably be alone as the only eliminated team for at least a two more weeks, but they’ve got a death grip on the wooden spoon, so they’ll have that with which to console themselves.

IN

Columbus Crew (Eastern Conference Champions)

Houston Dynamo (Western Conference Champions)

Chicago Fire S.C. (Eastern Conference Runners-up)

Los Angeles Galaxy (Western Conference Runners-up)

Seattle Sounders F.C. (37 points)

Colorado Rapids (36 points)

Chivas U.S.A. (36 points)

D.C. United (36 points)

OUT

Real Salt Lake (34pts): The biggest hurdle for RSL to overcome is that they’ve played two more matches than New England and Chivas U.S.A. and one more than Colorado. This being the case, they simply cannot afford to drop any more points. There are fifteen points still available to them and I think it’s going to take ten to be sure of a playoff spot. That could be a problem as they face Houston this weekend and could lose three points of their five point cushion in one match.

Toronto F.C. (34pts): Toronto are in the same situation as Real Salt Lake- they’ve played two more matches than New England and Chivas U.S.A. and one more than the Colorado Rapids. Again, they probably can’t afford to drop more than five of the fifteen points still available to them. Their next two matches are away to the Galaxy and away to the Fire. This is not good for the Reds. They could easily lose both matches and would probably be thrilled to come home with two points from these matches.

New England Revolution (33pts): Sheesh. Two weeks ago the Revs were in great shape. Then Shalrie Joseph got ejected (and automatically suspended from the next match) and they lost to the Wizards and Chivas U.S.A. back-to-back. So much for making the most of those games in hand. They still have two things in their favor though. First, they have at least a game in hand (and in some cases two) against all the teams they are chasing except Chivas. Second, they play the Red Bulls this weekend.

Kansas City Wizards (27pts): If you are a regular visitor to the Wizards website- and you really enjoy Kool-Aid- you can be forgiven for thinking that everything was going according to plan in Kansas City. The reality, however, is a bit different. First, they simply must win against Dallas this weekend. If they don’t, they’ll have to make up their points against the remainder of their schedule: Colorado, Houston, Chivas, Seattle, and D.C. United. Ouch.

F.C. Dallas (27pts): Dallas’ situation is the same as that of the Wizards in terms of matches remaining and number of points needed, but they have a slightly easier schedule. Two winnable matches- K.C. and S.J.- and then hope for the best against RSL, New England, Colorado, and Seattle. I’ll also give a bit of a nod to Dallas because they, more than Kansas City, have shown the ability to upset teams.  They’ve beaten Chicago, Columbus, Houston, and Los Angeles this year- the top four teams in the league if you haven’t been paying attention.

San Jose Earthquakes (20pts): Amazingly, the Quakes still have eight matches left in the season- as a comparison, D.C. and Houston have only four left. So, at least in theory, they’ve got enough points available to them- 24- to make the playoffs. Unfortunately, there are two things working against them. First, Darren Huckerby is out with season-ending hip surgery and second, San Jose has not shown the ability to accumulate points with any kind of regularity and that’s exactly what they’ll need to do if they want to keep hope alive.

MATHEMATICALLY ELIMINATED

New York Red Bulls (16pts): It’s about time. New York’s potential point total is 31, the lowest ranked playoff team already has 36. The end. See you all at Red Bull Arena!!

THE MATCHES THAT MATTER MOST

Seattle Sounders F.C. v. Chivas U.S.A. (Saturday): This is the only match of the weekend with definite playoff implications for both teams. Both teams must win if they want to guarantee another week among the playoff teams. If it’s a draw, both teams will be plunged right back into the battle between those just in and just out of the playoffs.