Avoiding the Drop

HUUUUUULLLLLLLKKKKK!!!

The group stage of the Champions League starts tomorrow, you probably know some of the big names involved obviously, but who else is involved and do they even have a chance at advancing? Over then next couple of days we’ll find all that out.

Chelsea
From: England
Last Season: 25-8-5, 83 points. 3rd place in the English Premier League
How They Got Here: Automatic Qualification
Last Season’s Champions League: Lost 1-1 on aggregate to Barcelona in literally the last minute of the Semi-Finals

Chelsea were a very good team last season that just sort of came up short. There wasn’t any good reason for them to be where they were, no epic collapse, no huge injuries that kept key players out for extended time, just a few bad results mixed in. The blame can fall on Gene Hackman, because the team played very well for Guus Hiddink, but he’s gone and now Ancelotti is in. Chelsea’s squad hasn’t changed much from last season. Some very expendable players were let go and Daniel Sturridge and Yuri Zhirkov were brought in, though either has yet to make an impact. This is really the year for Chelsea to try and make a big push to win the Champions League as they’ve got an aging squad that in a year or two just might not have what it takes to make a significant push. Group D is certainly no pushover, but I only really see them struggling in Portugal and potentially in Madrid, but the group should be rather easy for them to win.

FC Porto
From: Portugal
Last Season: 21-7-2, 70 points. Champions of the Portuguese Liga
How They Got Here: Automatic Qualification
Last Season’s Champions League: Lost 3-2 on aggregate to Manchester United  in the Quarter-finals

Porto are always a dangerous squad in the Champions League, and one of the only smaller teams to win the tournament in recent history. They were impressive in last season’s Champions League, but they’ve lost a key player up top in Lisandro. His replacement, Falcao has been more than adequate though, scoring 4 times in 4 appearances this season, and they still have the Brazilian Hulk. I don’t really care if Hulk ever scores another goal, just having a guy named Hulk on the team is pretty bad ass. Porto face a tough challenge in the group. They matched up with Atletico in last seasons knockout round and advanced only on away goals so they’re pretty even with the Spaniards.  It really comes down to how they face off against Chelsea and how many points they can steal there. I think Porto fall just short though and finish 3rd in the group.

Atletico Madrid
From: Spain
Last Season: 20-7-11, 67 points. 4th place in La Liga
How They Got Here: Defeated Panathinaikos 5-2 on aggregate in the play-off round.
Last Season’s Champions League: Lost 2-2 on away goals to Porto in the first knockout round.

Atletico are surely dwarfed even more this season by their city rivals, it’s a little hard to compete with that when your biggest signing is a goalkeeper. Atletico still return most of a quality side from last season, including Sergio Agüero and Diego Forlan. Atletico will be challenging Porto for second in the group, and I think how well they can do against Porto will go a long way in their quest to advance in the group. I don’t think they match up very well with Chelsea so those matches will be key, but if they can steal some points from Chelsea they could wind up not needing to go all out against Porto. I still think they’ll have the quality to finish 2nd in the group.

APOEL
From: Cypress
Last Season: 22-3-1, 69 points. Champions of the Cypriot First Division
How They Got Here: Second qualifying round: EB/Streymur 0–5 APOEL, Third Qualifying Round: APOEL 2–1 Partizan, Play-off round: Copenhagen 2–3  APOEL
Last Season’s Champions League: UEFA Cup first Round

This is another team with almost no chance of making it to the next round. If they make the next round it would truly be one of the greatest upsets of all time. That’s the only problem with group competitions like this, over a series of matches, it’s impossible for a small team to get a result. Sure APOEL could shock the world and beat Chelsea, but they’re not going to beat them twice and then get results against Atletico and Porto too. However APOEL will get a significant amount of money from this and should be able to build on that. They’ve got something of a dynasty going in Cypress with 20 league titles, so while they’re a powerhouse in their country, they’ve still got a long way to go in Cypress.