Avoiding the Drop

Now that almost every team in MLS has entered the last third of the season it’s time to start focusing on who is going to the post-season and who is not.  Going forward commentary will focus on those games likely to move one or both teams involved from one group into another rather than which team is thought to be better than which other team.  With that in mind…

The Power Rankings are dead, long live the The Playoff Rankings!!

IN

Columbus Crew (Eastern Conference Champions)
Houston Dynamo (Western Conference Champions)
Chicago Fire S.C. (Eastern Conference Runners-up)
Seattle Sounders F.C. (Western Conference Runners-up)
Los Angeles Galaxy (31 points)
Toronto F.C. (30 Points)
Colorado Rapids (30 Points)
Chivas U.S.A. (30 points)

OUT

D.C. United: United’s mission is simple- catch Toronto.  It’s probably too late to think about catching Columbus or Chicago, but the Reds are only three points ahead of D.C. and don’t hold any games in hand over them.  Now is the time…

Real Salt Lake: Despite being in sixth place in the Western Conference, RSL are actually only five points out of second place with nine matches left to play.  More to the point, with Chivas and Colorado (both playoff teams at the moment) only three points ahead of them, Real Salt Lake will have nobody to blame but themselves if they don’t make it.

New England Revolution: Basically, the Revs need to earn 16 points in their 12 remaining matches to have a chance to make the playoffs.  That’s 1.33 points/match and thus far in the season, New England has averaged…that’s right, 1.33 points/match.  In other words, they don’t even have to “get hot,” they just need to keep doing what they’ve been doing.  That’s why I’ve been harping on the “games in hand” issue all season!

F.C. Dallas: If only they’d begun their “push” about a month earlier…  The Hoops still have a chance, but it’s a slim one.  It would probably take something like six wins in their last nine games to give them  a shot to make the playoffs and that’s not taking into account what other teams get up to over the next month or so.

Kansas City Wizards: Only New England have more games in hand than the Wizards, so even at this late date and with so few (21) points, K.C. has a shot.  In the past, 40 points has generally been enough to get a team into the post-season and the Wizards still have 33 more available to them.  It would take quite a run, and if the team weren’t a train-wreck at the moment (on and off the field) that might be a possibility.

San Jose Earthquakes: I think we all believe that the Quakes are done, but mathematically, they’re actually far from finished- they could still finish with 47 points, which would make a playoff spot a certainty.  This could happen, but it won’t.

New York Red Bulls: Even if New York win all of their remaining matches, they cannot earn an automatic playoff spot- they would fall one point short (34) of current Eastern Conference runners-up Chicago S.C..  As for making it in as one of the teams with “the four next highest point totals regardless of conference,” they would have to hope that the Galaxy, Reds, Rapids, and Chivas essentially win one game each for the rest of the season.  That’s probably not going to happen…

MATHEMATICALLY ELIMINATED

No club yet qualifies for this list…not even the Red Bulls!

THE MATCHES THAT MATTER MOST

Toronto F.C.  v.  Chivas U.S.A. (Saturday): Neither team can afford to drop any points as both clubs have another team (D.C. United and Real Salt Lake, respectively) breathing down their necks.

Los Angeles Galaxy  v.  D.C. United (Saturday): D.C. will have at least a chance to catch Toronto if they win, and Los Angeles have Chivas and Colorado looking to pass them by.

Real Salt Lake  v.  New England Revolution (Sunday): There will be a little more pressure on RSL as they have played three more matches than New England- the Revs would probably be fine with a draw, but Real has to get three points.

Note:  The above placements do not reflect Wednesday evening’s match between Los Angeles and Chicago.