Avoiding the Drop

Last Year’s Record: 21 wins, 13 draws, 12 losses for 76 points in the Coca-Cola Football League Championship, promoted to the Premier League through the playoffs.

Transfers (In): Steven Fletcher (Hibernian, £3m), Tyrone Mears (Derby County, £.5), Richard Eckersley (Manchester United, undisclosed), Brian Easton (Hamilton Academical, £.35), David Edgar (Newcastle United, undisclosed)

Transfers (Out): Alexander MacDonald (Falkirk, loan), Adam Kay (Notts County, loan), Steve Jones (Walsall, free), Alan Mahon (Tranmere, free), Gabor Kiraly (1860 Munich, free)

Season Outlook:

Burnley’s return to England’s top flight for the first time in 33 years comes with the backing of the most supportive fans in the entire EPL.  Burnley’s population of 88,000 has produced almost 17,000 season ticket holders.  To match that level of support, a team like Manchester United would have to have almost 83,000 season ticket holders.  That kind of support, however, comes with high expectations, namely, that the team give a honest effort every week (unlike, say, Sunderland last year) and that they finish above Blackburn.

Who is Owen Coyle?  Probably the best manager you’ve never heard of.  Coyle played for over two decades in Scotland, including a two year stint as St. Johnstone’s player-manager at the end of his career before joining Burnley as their manager in 2007.  Which was not to say he was done as a player- in April 2009 he was an emergency replacement for Burnley in a reserve match- and scored.  Since taking over at Turf Moor he has recast the side in his own image- the Clarets will run all day, tackle hard, and when they succeed it is more through effort than through skill.  Coyle has also used his connections from his years playing and coaching in Scotland to bring a veritable “Tartan Army” to his new team.  It is entirely possible that half of the Burnley field players in any given match could be Scottish- Steven Thompson, Brian Easton, Steven Fletcher (the club’s record signing), Steven Caldwell, and Kevin McDonald.  Another Scot, Alex MacDonald, will spend the season on loan at Falkirk- one of Coyle’s old teams.

The rest of the side is filled out with players whose footballing backgrounds could best be described as, “humble.”  Its “international” players do not come from England, France, Germany, and Italy, but from Peru (6 caps), Northern Ireland (30 caps), Iceland (34 caps), Ecuador (2 caps), Jamaica (1 cap), and- no surprise- Scotland (67).  By way of comparison, Birmingham City (also recently premoted to the EPL) have three players- Maik Taylor, Damien Johnson, and James McFadden who total more career caps than the entire Burnley squad listed above, 171 to 140.  Add in new signing Barry Ferguson and the four man total is well north of 200 international appearances.  Just one more indication of what kind of a job Burnley are up against if they hope to avoid relegation back to the Championship at the end of the 2009-2010 EPL season.  What, then, are the chances that the little club from Lancashire can avoid the drop?

Almost every football pundit who has weighed in on the subject has predicted that Burnley will be sent straight back down to the Championship at the end of the year.  While that is always a possibility for a newly promoted team, only one of Avoiding the Drops prognosticators sees that happening- and one sees them finishing in the middle of the table in much the fashion that Stoke City did last year.  Overall, the prediction is for the club to finish one place ahead of the relegated sides and to remain in the EPL at least through the 2010-2011 season.