PEW PEW PEW!
As we near the start of the season, I’ll be taking a look at each position in fantasy and giving you a breakdown on the top players, who to look for, etc. as well as how the position scores points and other important things new players should know. Remember you can get all your info, and join our league right here. Last week we took a look at Midfielders, this week: Forwards
Forwards are one of the harder positions in fantasy to figure out. Sure we all know their primary objective is to score goals, but they seem to score fantasy points with a lot more random probability than midfilders. One thing to note is that scoring from forwards was down a considerable amount last season.
There isn’t one obvious reason for this that I can pick out for why this is, but it seems the teams that score a lot of goals (the top 6-7 or so clubs) are platooning their forwards more so the goals are a little more spread out. Last season just didn’t have too many goals from forwards as prior seasons either, last season had one forward with more than 14 goals, but the prior season had seven. So if this trend continues, the forwards from teams without 3-4 strikers who could start could end up scoring at a more efficient rate than others.
One trend I’ve noticed with strikers is that they’re very feast or famine. You’ll either get 2 points for them playing the game, or 7 or 8 because they had a very prolific game. There doesn’t seem to be a simple way to pick a forward, the better the player, obviously, the better the points but do you want to risk 10 million on Dimitar Berbatov when he potentially could sit out games and then you’re forced to rely upon Burnley’s Jay Rodriquez?
But before we get too much deeper, lets take a look at how they’re scoring:
Scoring:
Playing: 1 point for playing under 60 minutes, 2 points for playing more than 60
Goals: 4 points per goal scored
Assists: 3 points
Penalty Miss: -2 points
Yellow Card: -1 point
Red Card: -3 points (includes yellow card points)
Bonus Points: 1-3 points, again totally random
Penalty Miss: -2 points for missing a penalty
Again, I’ve organized guys into a spreadsheet and am using this formula to create some sort of value for each player:
fantasy points/(minutes played/90)= points per game (ppg)
out of the forwards that I ranked, they actually stood up to the rest of the guys pretty well, out of the t0p 20 of defenders, midfielders, and forwards I ranked, 9 were forwards, so they stood up pretty well.
Is this how you flip the bird?
Last Season’s Top Players:
Nicolas Anelka, Chelsea (179 points, 10.5 million, 5.53 ppg): Anelka was obviously the top striker in the league last season, and thus scored the most fantasy points among forwards obviously. The one knock against picking Anelka up would be the potential resurgance of Dider Drogba. Drogba hasn’t been great the last two seasons, and hasn’t played much either, however if he comes out like he did in 07/08, he could change things at Chelsea. Anelka also has Daniel Sturridge looming over his shoulder and could poach some goals from him.
Gabriel Agbonlahor, Aston Villa (146 points, 8.5 million, 4.21 ppg): Agbonlahor’s season went downhill a little before Aston Villa started their freefall, nine of his 11 goals came in the first 18 20 games of the season. This season should be interesting for him he’s still very young but Villa lost their star midfielder this summer, he could wind up struggling or striving this season. Personally I’d wait a few games to buy him to see how he, and Villa will do, he’ll cost a little more if he jumps out to a hot start, but it’s not worth it to have him only to see him falter.
Robinho, Mancester City (145 points, 9.5 million, 4.98 ppg): Yet another of last season’s top forwards that I would advise against buying, not because he’s not good, but because the front lines at Manchester City just got a whole lot busier. He’s also rather inconsistent, he went stretches last season where he was scoring like crazy, and then would do nothing. Though out of all the Manchester City players, he’s probably the only one I’d buy before we get a good idea about how this season is going to shake out at the Eastlands.
Stay Away From These Guys:
Any Manchester City strikers: As I just mentioned, there are too many of them right now, and they’re all pretty expensive. Adebayor, Robinho, Tevez and Roque Santa Cruz all rank in the top 10 in terms of price, but there is no way all four wind up in the top 10 at the end of the season. While you could sit there and try to figure out which one you wanted, it’s much better to just sit back and let a few games go by before you consider one of them.
Kevin Davies, Bolton (136 points, 7.0 million, 3.63 ppg): Davies did rank in the top 10 in overall points last season, but he also played a lot of minutes, giving him a very low ppg (he only missed half of one game, so you have to consider that he racked up about 75 points just from being a warm body on the field). He’s also 32 years old and plays for a team that isn’t exactly known for their firepower, he’s cheap, but I wouldn’t trust him.
Robin van Persie, Arsenal (145 points, 10 million, 5.94 ppg): Robin’s numbers look good, he played more games last season than he probably ever has, and thats where my problem with him comes in. He’s never been known as a very durable player and at the cost of 10 million, I’d be concerned that he’ll grab a couple silly injuries this season that would put him out for a decent amount of time. He very well could do even better than he did last year, but I see last year as an abnormality rather than the norm.
Best Buys: Value players 6 million and under
Sylvan Ebanks-Blake, Wolverhampton (N/A, 5.5 million, N/A): There really isn’t any reason not to take a flyer on Ebanks-Blake, he scored 25 goals last season in the Championship, is dirt cheap, and provides a tremendous upside. While he’s new to the league, he comes with less risk than other new players. He’s with his same team and he shouldn’t have much adjusting to do to the EPL compared to someone that comes from another country. Even if he sits on your bench for the first few weeks, he’s worth the low cost.
Erik Nevland, Fulham (48 points, 5.0 million, 9.19 points): I’m not quite sure who he is, but he only played 470 minutes last season and still managed 4 goals and 2 assists. In about 200 games in Norway, he averaged almost a goal every other game. He’s 31 years old, but he’s a mystery man and if he starts playing more this season, could be worth his low price.
Ricardo Fuller, Stoke City (106 points, 6.0 million, 4.09 ppg): Fuller got the job done at Stoke City last season, nothing flashy but then again, thats how Stoke seems to operate. You’re probably not going to get any crazy 15 point performances from him this season, but you’ll get a consistent, hard working scorer. He’s a perfect 3rd striker, or even a good 2nd striker if you’ve focused a lot of your rescources on the midfiled.
JOZY!
My top 5 Forwards:
1. Fernando Torres, Liverpool (135 points, 11.5 million, 7.03 ppg): If he stays healthy, expect a monster season.
2. Eduardo, Arsenal (61 points, 8.0 million, 5.71 ppg): His stats are from 07/08 as he didn’t play last season, but he’s a fantastic player and he’s now a starter for Arsenal
3. Ricardo Fuller, Stoke City (106 points, 6.0 million, 4.09 ppg): Cheap, but still gets you points.
4. John Carew, Aston Villa (114 points, 8.0 million, 5.65 ppg): I trust him more than Agbonlahor, plus he had as many goals as Gabby in a shorter amount of time.
5. Sylvan Ebanks-Blake, Wolverhampton (N/A, 5.5 million, N/A): I think he’ll have a good season for Wolves.
Honorable mention: Jozy Altidore, Hull City: Hull’s strikers sucked last season, and if he’s cheap, then he could be really good. Plus, I’m an American homer.
So what do you think?
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