Avoiding the Drop

Last year’s record:  28 wins, 6 draws, 4 losses.  90 points.  They won their third consecutive Barclay’s Premier League championship by 4 points over Liverpool.  They were +44 in goal differential.

Transfer activity:

In – Antonio Valencia (Wigan – undisclosed), Mame Biram Diouf (Molde – undisclosed, and immediately loaned back), Gabriel Obertan (Bordeaux – undisclosed), Michael Owen (Newcastle – free), Paul Pogba (Le Havre – undisclosed)

Out – Manucho (Valladolid – undisclosed), Richard Eckersley (Burnley – undisclosed), Frazier Campbell (Sunderland – £3.5M), Lee Martin (Ipswich Town – undisclosed), Rodrigo Possebon (Braga – loan), Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid – £80M), Carlos Tevez (Manchester City – no fee received because he was on loan at United)

Season Outlook:

On the surface, it would appear that for the first time in quite some time, United should not be considered as the prohibitive favorites at the outset of the season.  Ladbrokes has United, Chelsea and Liverpool essentially all as favorites, with United and Chelsea at 3:1, while Liverpool is slightly higher than 3.5:1.  United’s losses in the offseason cannot be understated.  Cristiano Ronaldo (49 league goals over the last two seasons) and Carlos Tevez represented two world class players who have not been replaced (as of this writing).  Sir Alex Ferguson was able to get Michael Owen to forget his loyalty to Liverpool and don the shirt of the Red Devils on a free, and it’s a low-risk move, quite frankly, that could pay off in spades IF Owen stays healthy and IF he remembers to wear his scoring boots.  Of the other current transfers in, only Antonio Valencia from Wigan would appear to have a shot at regular first-team football.

United’s strength is in it’s veteran leadership, especially along the back line and in goal.  Edwin Van Der Sar, Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic form a core of fantastically talented individuals who keep the top strikers away from the netting.  Ryan Giggs is still a class player and can be counted on when United needs professional play in the midfield.  Michael Carrick is solid to spectacular at times, but is usually rock-solid in his passing and transition game.  Wayne Rooney is versatile, dangerous and knows how to win when the chips are down, something that took him some time to learn.  In short, United is still a deep, veteran, dangerous side.  However, it still has to be said that replacing the goals, the effort and the tenacity of Ronaldo and Tevez will not just magically happen.

Liverpool are keen to catch United, and did the double over them last season (the only team to post an outright victory at Old Trafford).  Chelsea is a solid veteran team that can hurt you from both the wings and up the middle.  It is clear that the challenge ahead for United will be a daunting one.  They have a tough three match stretch at the end of August and into September as they host Arsenal, travel to Spurs, and then host Manchester City in what should prove to be quite a derby this season.  In mid-October, they travel to Liverpool, host Blackburn, are away to Chelsea and then host Everton.  They play six games in December including two trips to London.  April 2010 also looks to be difficult as the four games include a home match against Chelsea, traveling to Blackburn, going across town to City and then hosting Spurs.

We have a post coming out with our combined predictions for the Barclay’s Premier League, and I can honestly say that I predicted United to come fourth in the league this season.  I see this as a difficult league campaign for Fergie (assuming that again, there are still four weeks left in transfer and they might splash cash on some one).  I think the hunger and will to overcome will prove too much this season, and United will slip.  That being said, United certainly have the talent to take their fourth straight crown, and could do so should things break properly for them.  I just don’t see it this season.