Avoiding the Drop

There are 72 clubs in the English Football League.

Since the start of the season last August, 30 of them have changed their manager, a 42% casualty rate this season alone.  That statistic is just based on whom the manager was when the club took the field for their first game until now.  It’s not taking into account clubs like Newcastle United, who have essentially had 4 managers this season.

Last season, 2007-08, there were 35 managerial changes over the entire season.

I bring up this topic because of the sacking of Jim Magilton at Ipswich Town.

Why would ANYONE want to be a manager these days?  Sure, there are success stories.  Roy Keane took a floundering Sunderland side and brought them from the relegation area in the Cola-ship all the way up to the Premier League.  Gianfranco Zola has been superb in my opinion, since taking over fully from Alan Curbishley at West Ham United.  The big three stalwarts, Benitez, Wenger and Ferguson, soldier on year in, year out.  Harry Redknapp has done an excellent job at Spurs (despite abandoning Portsmouth).

The job itself doesn’t change.  Pick the team.  Install the tactics.  Run the practices.  Oversee (or make suggestions for) the transfer process.  Handle the press obligations.  Deal with the supporters.

What has changed are the incredible expectations on the gaffers.  Not only are managers expected to handle the team in a professional manor, they are also under enormous pressure to win, and win quickly (at least at the lower league level).  Teams in the Cola-ship, League One and League Two all have the Barclays Premier League in their visions, be it close or somewhere down the road.  They want the prestige that’s involved, they want the exposure on television, they want the big cash that comes with nights at Old Trafford and the Emirates.  For clubs in the Premier League, they want a top 6 finish so the huge returns of European football are involved.  David Moyes and Martin O’Neill understand what those nights mean for clubs like Everton and Aston Villa, clubs that would never be able to generate the kind of money that the Big 4 of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United could and can generate through the Champions League.

Still, though, even for the other clubs in the Premier League, there had better not be a bad run of form.  There had better not be more than two losses in a row or the journos and the supporters will start to get fidgety.  The rumour mills will start to churn.  A frenzy, almost like a small noise getting incrementally bigger over time so that you don’t notice it until it’s deafening crescendo, will develop.  Some clubs expect the managers to get by on the players that the owner supplies.  Other clubs tell the manager, okay, fine, we’ll give you summer and January cash, but if you miss on picking a player, it’s your neck, not ours.  Some clubs with horrendous management seem to think that the so-called “new manager bump” can happen anytime the manager is sacked.

I’m not advocating keeping managers forever.  Certainly, there are times when the situation becomes untenable.  There are times when the club needs a new voice, and there are times when a manager loses the respect or the confidence of the dressing room.  Changes need to be made.  However, this 40%-50% turnover rate per year is not sustainable.  I realize that we’re in an era where immediate results are expected, and I realize this sounds completely curmudgeonly to even begin to suggest that managers shouldn’t be sacked as much as they are, but that’s how I feel.

Earlier this year, the question of Gareth Southgate’s continued employment at Middlesbrough was brought up.  While I don’t think Southgate is a brilliant manager, he has shown over the time that he’s been at the club that he seems to know what he’s doing, and he understands that a club like Middlesbrough, in it’s current state, is best served trying to finish in the top 10.  Beyond that, staying in the Premier League is paramount.  Boro could go down this season; they are three points from safety currently.  If that happens and they choose to change managers, I ask this:  What is it that Southgate didn’t do that someone else might have based on the idea that Boro has a limited budget and no real ability to attract top-class players?  As I said, I don’t think Southgate is brilliant by any stretch.  Other than a vagabond type like Alan Curbishley, there weren’t many other managers capable out there of taking over and possibly making a difference.  So, they stuck with Southgate.  If they go down, it’s unlikely that he’ll be retained, and grudgingly, I’ll admit that’s probably the right decision.

This madness has to end sometime though.  The current economic situation may prevent some of these clubs from constantly changing skippers, as it is expensive to constantly pay off older ex-gaffers.  Then and only then will some of these clubs realize that success is built, not bought.