The next week and a half or so are like a Twilight Zone episode for most faithful soccer fans: there are more games than you can possibly watch, and chances are you don’t care all that deeply about any of them. Since the qualifiers are the only game in town this weekend, though, we still think you should have a preview. This is the UEFA preview; we may try for a CONCACAF preview and, if you’re really nice, a CONMEBOL preview. AFC fans, I think you’re probably out of luck.
We’ll get into the groups after the jump.
Before we start, some procedural notes. You’ll be forgiven for not knowing the exact process for World Cup qualification. UEFA is allotted 13 competition spots; 53 teams are competing in nine groups for those spots (Groups 1-8 have six teams; Group 9 has five). The winners of each group go through automatically; the four remaining slots are played for by pitting the eight runners-up with the highest point totals (not counting the results of the match against the sixth placed team in the group, where applicable). Since teams play each other home and away, there’re ten games to be played for most teams; we’re a little less than halfway through.
GROUP 1
1) Denmark – 7 points
2) Hungary – 7 points
3) Albania – 6 points
4) Portugal – 5 points
5) Sweden – 5 points
6) Malta – 1 points
Just so we’re clear, goal differential separates Denmark and Hungary; also, Denmark’s also only played three games, while Malta have played five. To me, that says that fans of Malta shouldn’t be booking tickets to South Africa just yet; your mileage may vary.
The match of the weekend is probably Portugal-Sweden; both are on five points, but Sweden’s only played three games. For all the talent Portugal has, one would think manager Carlos Quieroz could be a little more competitive here; their only win thus far was a 4-0 thrashing of Malta, and they’ve already lost to Denmark and drawn with Sweden. In fact, they’ve done so badly that Voros McCracken (of “Moneyball” fame; he likes soccer, too) gave them only a 30.38% chance of getting into the World Cup back in December.
Saturday, March 28th:
Denmark vs. Albania
Malta vs. Denmark
Portugal vs. Sweden
Wednesday, April 1st:
Denmark vs. Albania
Hungary vs. Malta
GROUP 2
1) Greece – 9 points
2) Israel – 8 points
3) Switzerland – 7 points
4) Latvia – 4 points
5) Luxembourg – 4 points
6) Moldova – 1 point
Everyone’s played four games in this one, so it’s a little bit clearer how things are shaping up; this is a nice home-and-home weekend, too. For Switzerland, a doubleheader against Moldova comes at the perfect time, as Valon Behrami’s injury probably won’t affect them as much against Moldova as it would against, say Greece or Israel. Speaking of Greece and Israel, I can see each of them walking away with three points from the weekend; I think Switzerland will walk away with six, though, putting them at the top of the group, if only briefly. The biggest news from the group is probably that Israeli captain Yossi Benayoun, who’s been sensational for Liverpool recently, is ignoring Rafa’s request that he stay home and recuperate from a hamstring injury.
Saturday, March 28th:
Luxembourg vs. Latvia
Moldova vs. Switzerland
Israel vs. Greece
Wednesday, April 1st:
Latvia vs. Luxembourg
Switzerland vs. Moldova
Greece vs. Israel
GROUP 3
1) Slovakia – 9 points
2) Northern Ireland – 7 points
3) Czech Republic – 7 points
4) Poland – 7 points
5) Slovenia – 7 points
6) San Marino – 0 points
This is like the bizarro group of death; none of the teams are particularly threatening, but everything’s really tight and any team (except San Marino) can probably win. Martin Skrtel and Peter Cech are probably the biggest players in the whole group; I’d imagine that the Czech Republic moves up a spot after this weekend and eventually takes the whole thing, but that’s just conjecture.
Incidentally, after this weekend Northern Ireland will have played seven of their ten games.
Saturday, March 28th:
Northern Ireland vs. Poland
Slovenia vs. Czech Republic
Wednesday, April 1st:
Czech Republic vs. Slovakia
Poland vs. San Marino
Northern Ireland vs. Slovenia
GROUP 4
1) Germany – 10 points
2) Russia – 6 points
3) Wales – 6 points
4) Finland – 4 points
5) Azerbaijan – 1 points
6) Liechtenstein – 1 points
One would have to assume that Germany or Russia will win this group; Russia’s tied on points with Wales, but Wales and Germany are on four games while the rest of the group is on three. Wales and Germany will also play each other again next Wednesday; that’s probably the game of the week in this group.
Eventually, this group will create a completely meaningless Azerbaijan-Liechtenstein game that some club team is going to rightly want his striker to avoid going to but can’t. Once you’re mathematically eliminated, the rest of your games should be canceled.
Saturday, March 28th:
Russia vs. Azerbaijan
Wales vs. Finland
Germany vs. Liechtenstein
Wednesday, April 1st:
Liechtenstein vs. Russia
Wales vs. Germany
GROUP 5
1) Spain – 12 points
2) Turkey – 8 points
3) Belgium – 7 points
4) Bosnia and Herzegovina – 6 points
5) Estonia – 1 points
6) Armenia – 0 points
Spain haven’t lost 2007, and have only drawn once (to Italy in a game won on penalties). They’re the best team in the world right now and will probably go through. Turkey (which is basically the best players from Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe) will probably get spanked in their home-and-home with the reigning European champions, but I’d imagine that the Turks will rebound at a later point to take second in this group. Bosnia and Herzegovina have a +8 goal differential (second best in the group behind Spain’s +9), but have won two and lost two; they accomplished that feat by achieving the biggest win of the stage, a 7-0 dismantling of Estonia, who aren’t even in last place at the moment. That could come in handy for the Bosnians if they end up in second place.
The Spain-Turkey matches are the ones to watch here, obviously; I’m a fan of Spain’s total dominance, but I like the raw emotion Turkey brought to the Euros. Should Spain wins both games, they’ll have punched their ticket to the World Cup (although, really, they’ve probably done enough to get their as it is). Should Bosnia lose both games and Estonia win both games, Estonia would actually be ahead of Bosnia by a point.
Saturday, March 28th:
Armenia vs. Estonia
Belgium vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina
Spain vs. Turkey
Wednesday, April 1st:
Estonia vs. Armenia
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Belgium
Turkey vs. Spain
GROUP 6
1) England – 12 points
2) Croatia – 7 points
3) Ukraine – 7 points
4) Belarus – 3 points
5) Kazakhstan – 3 points
6) Andorra – 0 points
In “I suck at geography!” news, I actually thought Andorra was in Africa. England are undefeated in the group stage thus far, which is either because Fabio Capello has finally instilled some discipline in the Three Lions or because they play in a really weak group (take your pick). You can only play the games in front of you, though, and they’ve done that well; they actually have the best goal differential of any team in any group.
The undercard in this group is Croatia-Ukraine; while Croatia is FIFA’s highest ranked team in this group, they’ve also only amassed seven points on four games. The Ukraine’s gotten seven points on just three games, with their draw coming against Croatia. Their next major test will be England on Wednesday; that should be a really good match.
Also, I have no idea why none of these teams are playing Saturday, but that’s really irritating.
Wednesday, April 1st:
Kazakhstan vs. Belarus
Andorra vs. Croatia
England vs. Ukraine
GROUP 7
1) Serbia – 9 points
2) Lithuania – 9 points
3) France – 4 points
4) Austria – 4 points
5) Romania – 4 points
6) Faroe Islands – 1 point
France has only played three games. They beat Serbia 2-1, drew 2-2 with Romania, and lost 3-1 to Austria. The team they beat is two spots ahead of them; the team they lost to is one spot behind them. Fun, huh?
The point totals are slightly misleading here because France and Romania are a game behind everyone else. That said, they’re only a game behind, and 4+3=7 points, or “still in third place”. Should they want to get back to defend their runner-up status (is that something you defend?), they obviously need to start winning. Beating Lithuania twice in one week, for example, would be a good start.
Back to Voros McCracken for a minute: based on data gained from his simulations, Lithuania has an 8.68% shot of advancing while France has a 70.75% chance. I don’t know how he came up with that, but I believe him.
Saturday, March 28th:
Romania vs. Serbia
Lithuania vs. France
Wednesday, April 1st:
Austria vs. Romania
France vs. Lithuania
GROUP 8
1) Italy – 10 points
2) Republic of Ireland – 10 points
3) Bulgaria – 3 points
4) Montenegro – 2 points
5) Georgia – 2 points
6) Cyprus – 1 point
First of all: the national flags of Italy, Ireland, and Bulgaria are WAY too similar. They should be separated based on that.
Second: there are three undefeated teams in this group. Italy, Ireland, and Bulgaria haven’t recorded a loss yet in group play. Georgia, meanwhile, have played five games, losing three and drawing two. Italy will go on to the World Cup, but the fact that they haven’t scored more than two goals against any of the weak-sister competition in this group doesn’t bode well for their chance of defending their title. After Italy and Ireland are done playing each other on October 10th, I think we should stop playing the games in this group altogether.
Saturday, March 28th:
Cyprus vs. Georgia
Montenegro vs. Italy
Republic of Ireland vs. Bulgaria
Wednesday, April 1st:
Bulgaria vs. Cyprus
Georgia vs. Montenegro
Italy vs. Republic of Ireland
GROUP 9
1) Netherlands – 9 points
2) Scotland – 4 points
3) Iceland – 4 points
4) FYR Macedonia – 3 points
5) Norway – 2 points
It occurs to me that UEFA may be overrepresented in the World Cup a bit. This is another group that basically serves as a match practice program for the Dutch; they haven’t lost a game yet, and I don’t really see Iceland or Norway taking them down. The only competition is Scotland, who they’ll play on Saturday. I’m looking forward to that, actually…but only because I like the Clockwork Orange. Frankly, a Spain-Netherlands final would be awesome to me; the Netherlands are my favorite team to watch when they click on all cylinders.
Final note on McCracken: Iceland only advanced to the World Cup in 0.02% of his simulations.
Saturday, March 28th:
Netherlands vs. Scotland
Wednesday, April 1st:
Netherlands vs. FYR Macedonia
Scotland vs. Iceland
I kind of agree on the over representation thing, in most of those groups, there really isn’t any “two horse race” Group 1 is interesting in that Portugal is 2 points down, but that will right itself I’m sure. UEFA should just give Spain, France, Italy, Germany, etc. automatic bids, then it might be a little more interesting.
I think Portugal can climb out of it, but they’ve lost to Denmark and drawn with Sweden; they need to stop dropping points to teams above them.
Group 8 is really a perfect example; when that draw was made, there was no way Italy wasn’t going through when you figure that it’s a best-of-10 series. They might be beatable in a single game; over time, though, those anomalies have less effect, and Italy will get out of it alright.
There also haven’t been enough games played to really guess accurately right now; Lithuania, for example, has gotten to beat up on some relatively weak competition and they have a game on France. I don’t think France will really miss the World Cup; I do think, though, that right now Lithuania’s in the drivers seat in that group.
I should be more enthused about Capello, I know this. He has done a good job, to be honest, but I think I need to see how he does in a tournament situation before I get too wound up.
Queiroz better get it together quickly. The federations have an itchy trigger finger if they think they might not make a very lucrative competition.
Hmm…first, of that group, the Irish flag is the only one with orange in it.
Second, and I say this through tears, Scotland are not going to challenge the Dutch to win the group- even if they somehow beat them Saturday. In fact, all of the other second place teams in UEFA have 7 points, so Scotland and their 4 points are not going to go through as the “best runner-up” team either.
Sigh.
Scotland still stands a fair chance of going through as long as they slap Norway, Macaronia and Iceland around. Then the results of the other 2nd place clubs get deducted the points from playing the 6th place teams, correct? That should put them in the top 8, unless I’m reading that incorrectly.
Yes, Scotland have a chance.
But as somebody who sat in Hampden and watched them squander a 2-0 halftime lead over a 10 man Belgium in 2001 to essentially kill their hopes of qualifying for WC 2002, I have my doubts.