Avoiding the Drop

The final 8 teams for this year’s UEFA Champions League have been determined.  The battles throughout the Group Stages and the Round of 16 were always poignant, interesting and sometimes, downright surprising in terms of results.  The quarterfinals are upon us now, and although the odds will likely change as of Friday’s draw (which will slot the teams and opponents for the rest of the tournament), I thought I’d talk about how the oddsmakers are looking at each of the teams at this point.  All odds are courtesy of Ladbrokes in England.

1.  Manchester United (5-2) – The Red Devils advanced by 2-0 aggregate over the reigning Italian Champions, Internazionale.  They are on course for three more possible trophies this season, the domestic Barclay’s Premier League, the FA Cup and of course, the Champions League.  United are the defending Champions of this competition, after defeating fellow English side Chelsea in Moscow last May.   My take:  United has had a bit of a wobble lately, so the draw for this competition is vital.  One would assume that they would want to avoid another English side or Barcelona until at least the semi-finals.  I would suspect that their preferred opponents for the quarterfinals would be either Porto or Bayern Munich, although they wouldn’t likely have a lot of trouble with Villareal either.  They are Champions until they are beaten, so it’s hard to see them as anything other than favorites at this point.

2.  Barcelona (5-2) – Barcelona advanced by defeating the domestic French champions, Lyon, 6-3 on aggregate.  They are on course to likely win La Primera Liga in Spain.  They are led by the brilliant attacking force of Lionel Messi, Thierry Henry and Samuel Eto’o, who have scored over 100 goals in all competitions this year, combined.  They do have a current weakness, as first-choice keeper Victor Valdez has been shaky lately.  They were defeated in the semi-finals of the Champions League last year by eventual champions Manchester United on a brilliant Paul Scholes goal.  My take:  They will be a tough out, to be sure.  Again, they would not want to see Manchester United in the round of 8, but might fancy their chances against any of the other teams in the draw.  They can put goals in in bunches and likely have the best attackers in the world at this point, when all are healthy.  Should United be knocked out of the competition, they will be the first choice of the oddsmakers moving forward.

3.  Chelsea (9-2) – The Blues have righted the ship after the departure of Luis Felipe Scolari by installing temporary manager Guus Hiddink.  The squad immediately regained their bulldog-like intensity, and now are aided by the return of the brilliant mid-fielder Mikael Essien.  Currently, they stand second on goal differential to Manchester United in the Premier League, and are on a great run of form.  It’s unlikely that either they or 3rd place team Liverpool can catch United at this point, but Chelsea is also alive in this competition and the domestic FA Cup, so they have silverware to play for.  My take:  They are dangerous when Essien’s healthy and it’s as simple as that.  Essien is a true difference maker, and they believe in themselves at this point.  They are a deep veteran team, they have a solid (if slipping) captain in John Terry, and plenty of experience.  They made the finals last year and only lost on penalties.  Don’t sleep on this team moving forward.

4.  Liverpool (6-1) – The Reds have had one of their best modern weeks in history, blasting Real Madrid out of the Champions League 5-0 on aggregate, and thumping Manchester United at Old Trafford this past weekend 4-1.  They’ve passed Chelsea as third favorites in this competition moving forward, but they do have a great European history to rely on for that, as well.  They are not deep up front, but Fernando Torres is on a run of form at the moment, and one can never doubt Steven Gerrard’s big game abilities.  They are currently third, behind Chelsea and United, in the Premier League, and will have a tough time overcoming both teams to claim a title.  They are out of the FA Cup, so this competition truly may be their only shot at silverware this season.  My take:  The draw is all important for them at this point.  They want to avoid Chelsea, United and Barca until the semi-finals.  Anfield is a cauldron, loud and imposing, and great weapon for them in any leg of this competition.  Torres must stay healthy as they truly have no scoring depth behind him at the striker position.  They will be dangerous, though, don’t doubt it.

5.  Bayern Munich (9-1) – Munich advanced to the semi-finals with a shocking 12-1 aggregate defeat of Sporting Lisbon; it’s not often a team in the round of 16 capitulates like that.  Currently, they stand second in the Bundesliga, tied on points with 45, but second on goal difference.  They have struggled with consistency this season, and now face injuries to both Luca Toni and Miroslav Klose.  It could be an uphill climb for them in the quarterfinals, regardless of opponent.  Lisbon didn’t offer much resistance.  My take:  I think this team is dangerous on a given night, but can be had by a team with bottle and fortitude.  They do not like English soil, so one would surmise that they might actually prefer one of the Spanish sides (including Barcelona) or Porto before a trip to my homeland.  Honestly, I cannot see this team winning the title this year.

6.  Arsenal (9-1) – The Gunners just climbed back into the fourth Champions League spot this past weekend in the Barclay’s.  It’s been a grinding year for Arsene Wenger’s side, fighting injuries to key players, inconsistent play, lack of bottle and baffling results.  However, the arrival of Andrei Arshavin directly at the end of the January window looks to be paying off in the league and Cup competitions, and it’s allowing the pressure on the injured Gunners to ease a bit.  The return of skipper Cesc Fabregas and striker Emmanuel Adebayor will add to the depth for the upcoming quarterfinal round.  My take:  Again, a team that needs the right draw to make it to Rome for the final.  Realistically, they’ve done well domestically against the other English teams in the draw.  They do not want to see Porto or Barcelona at all in the quarterfinals.  Porto gave them fits in the group stages, while Barca would likely put the biggest weakness defensively, William Gallas and Kolo Toure, to the sword.  They have a chance, but it really comes down to the draw.

7.  Villareal (25-1) – They find themselves in 4th place in La Primera Liga, just 2 points ahead of chasing Atletico Madrid.  They got through the round of 16 by defeating Panathinaikos 3-2 on aggregate.  Villareal are clearly fighting on two fronts now, with trying to hold off the charging Atletico in the league, and hoping for a decent draw in this quarterfinal round.  One would assume they would want to avoid fellow Spanish side Barcelona, who defeated them earlier this season in league play.  Based on their style, they match up best with Bayern Munich, but it would be a match they would need to play at their pace and not get into a running contest with the Germans.  The English sides are big, physical and skilled.  This would not be a good matchup for Villareal.  My take:  One of the two longshots left.  I think they will be out in the next round, but to make the final 8 is a fantastic showing for them, to be honest.  With the right draw, they can cause havoc, but the English sides present disaster for them.

8.  FC Porto (25-1) – Currently leading the Portugese Liga with 48 points, 4 ahead of the aforementioned Sporting Lisbon.  Porto did with Arsenal’s group in the group stages, and defeated Atletico Madrid in the round of 16, 2-2 on aggregate by scoring away goals.  One would suspect the odds on them lengthened considerably when Sporting capitulated the way they did, but Porto held down an extremely distinguished striking side in Atletico when they needed to at home, so they cannot be discounted.  They are here, and the Italian Serie A has no teams in this round.  My take:  A long shot, to be sure.  Their best draw would probably be Arsenal, as they would at least have confidence that they’ve handled them earlier this year.  Most of the other teams would spell doom for them, though, save for potentially Villareal.

What’s your take on these teams?  What matchups do you want to see out of the draw on Friday?