Avoiding the Drop

In anticipation of the 2009 MLS season, we here at Avoiding the Drop will be doing detailed previews of each squad. Join us after the jump for the Eastern Conference preview.

NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION

2008: 12-11-7, 43 points, 3rd in Eastern Conference, lost to Chicago in Conference Semifinals

Out: Khano Smith (Seattle, New York), Michael Parkhurst (Nordsjælland, Norway), Adam Christman (Kansas City)

In: Michael Videira (free/Hamilton Academical, Scotland), Kevin Alston (draft/Tampa), Ryan Maxwell (draft/Duke), Andrei  Gotsmanov (draft/Creighton), Denaldin “Dado” Hamzagic (draft/St. Louis),  Chris Salvaggione (draft/UNC-Charlotte ), Darrius Barnes (draft/Duke), and Tyrel Lacey (draft/Tulsa)

Overview: After a disappointing 2008 campaign the Revolution enter the 2009 season with many personnel questions to answer if they hope to earn a spot in the playoffs:  Who will partner Taylor Twellman up front?  The answer here is probably a rotation of Kheli Dube, when size and a target man are needed, and Kenny Mansally when more speed is needed.  Mansally, who has better ball skills, is a decent server of the ball, and who is willing to take on defenders would seem to be the more consistently “dangerous” of the two options.

Who will replace Michael Parkhurst on the back line?  Nobody on the current roster.  Chris Albright and the indefatigable Jay Heaps have half of the back line nailed down.  The other half, however, may prove to be a black hole.  Second-year player Amaechi Igwe is a converted forward, highly-touted Gabriel Badilla was, at best, inconsistent in 2008, and the remaining     candidates (Rob Valentino, Darrius Barnes, and Kevin Alston) have never stepped onto the pitch in a league match.

Will draftee “Dado” Hamzagić show enough to earn the fourth spot in what may be the best midfield in MLS (Joseph, Larentowitz, and Ralston)?  At the very least, he will have every opportunity to do so.  Mauricio Castro saw most of the action in 2008, but it would be going too far to say that he “impressed.”  The trio of Wells Thompson, Chris Tierney, and Pat Phelan all     played well at times in 2008, but not consistently enough to unseat Castro.  Newcomers Videira, Gotsmanov, Maxwell will probably not be factors in the competition.  In the end it will likely be second-year player Sainey Nyassi that will be Hamzagić’s main competition for the fourth spot.  It is also possible that, with 12 midfielders currently on the roster, one or more could be dealt to bring in some help for Twellman up front, or to shore-up the back line.

Ultimately, however these questions will have to be answered by the brain-trust of Steve Nicol and Paul Mariner.  While Revolution fans have every reason to be confident that the coaching     staff will find the answers to these questions, it will take time.  Unfortunately, it may take more time than the 2009 season can provide.  The team has enough talent and veteran leadership to remain competitive and stay ahead of D.C. United, Toronto, and New York, but it is unlikely that they will challenge Chicago or defending champions Columbus for the top spot in the Eastern Conference.  Most likely, they will wage a see-saw battle with K.C. for the third spot.

Should the league prove to be a disappointment, the Revolution might be able to salvage something from 2009 both financially and in terms of hardware as they will once again compete in the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup and will defend their 2008 title in the SuperLiga.

Prediction: 3th place in the Eastern Conference.

TORONTO F.C.

2008: 9-13-8, 35 points, 7th in Eastern Conference, missed playoffs.

Out: Todd Dunivant (Los Angeles), Maurice Edu (Rangers, Scotland), Julius James (Houston), Tyrone Marshall (Seattle), Lauren Robert (Larissa, Greece), Carlos Ruiz (Olimpia Asunción, Paraguay), Jarrod Smith (Seattle)

In: Dwayne DeRosario (Houston), Sam Cronin (draft/Wake Forest), O’Brian White (draft/UConn), Kyle Hall (draft/Syracuse), Pablo Vitti (loan/Independiente, Argentina), Stefan Frei (draft/California)

Overview: In its first two seasons in MLS Toronto F.C. has been blessed with one of the strongest- if not the strongest- fan bases in the league.  The question now is how much patience do the seven(!) different supporters groups and the rest of the at-large fan base possess as the club enters its third MLS season?  One hopes, for the sake of the team- and indeed the league- that the enthusiasm of the fans can last at least one more year as the club clearly needs a little more time to become competitive.  Toronto has the chance to become as strong and successful a franchise as D.C. United or Houston Dynamo, but as is the case with any club in MLS a string of subpar seasons could also have them joining Miami and Tampa Bay as former MLS franchises.

Obviously, the biggest off-season development in Toronto was the acquisition of Dwayne De Rosario from Houston.  The Toronto-area native has established himself as a dynamic goal scoring presence for both club and country in the last decade and it is hoped that he will help to bring Toronto its first MLS Cup- and his fourth.  Unfortunately, this is not going to happen.  De     Rosario will no doubt live up to his promise as an individual, but there is not enough talent around him- yet- to help the club climb out of the Eastern Conference basement in 2009.  In addition to two 2008 acquisitions who can only be described as “busts” (Lauren Robert and Carlos Ruiz), Toronto lost arguably its two best players during late 2008 and in the off-season:      Maurice Edu and Tyrone Marshall, respectively.

The second issue facing the club is to decide whether to stick with its decision to populate its roster with players who are representative of the “traditional” or “historical” Canadian population  (17 of 22 roster spots are currently filled by players from the U.S., U.K., and Canada) in the face of the success that other clubs have had with players from Latin America and Africa- most of whom are younger and can be signed at a lower cost.  While the strategy can be understood in terms of generating and maintaining fan support, it appears to be a non-starter on the field.

Where personnel is concerned, perhaps the most intriguing draftee is O’Brian White.  The Jamaican-born, Toronto resident completed celebrated career at UConn including earning the M.A.C. Hermann Trophy in 2007 as the nation’s best collegiate player.  White is a proven scorer with good size, but he also tore is ACL in October and is unlikely to be ready to take the field     when Toronto’s MLS season opens on March 21.  When White does regain his fitness his ability to/or not to contribute goals to the first team will have a lot to say about what becomes of Toronto’s 2009 campaign.

Prediction: 6th place in the Eastern Conference.
RED BULL NY

2008: 10-11-9, 39 points, 5th in Eastern Conference, lost to Columbus in MLS Cup 2008.

Out: Dave van den Bergh (Dallas), Mike Magee (Los Angeles), Jeff Parke (Seattle)

In: Mike Petke (free), Khano Smith (Seattle), Macoumba Kandji (Atlanta, USL), Dominic Oduro (Dallas), Jeremy Hall (draft/Maryland), Babajide Ogunbiyi (draft/Santa Clara), Jack Traynor (draft/Notre Dame), Nick Zimmerman (James Madison)

Overview: Despite losing both Claudio Reyna (retirement) and Jozy Altidore (Villarreal) at midseason, Red Bull NY managed to slip into the MLS playoffs and, once there, to make a somewhat improbable run to MLS Cup 2008 where they lost to Columbus.  As New York’s 2009 season approaches there is really only one question facing the club:  “Was 2008 an aberration, or is Red Bull NY finally going to emerge as the premier franchise it should have been since MLS began in 1996?

The signals out of the Meadowlands are, at best, mixed.  On the positive side, they have been able to hang onto the services of captain Juan Pablo Angel, and will certainly benefit from another season under the experienced and steady hand of coach Juan Carlos Osorio.  That being said, they have done little to improve the team in the offseason.  Team mainstays and dependable goal scorers Dave van den Bergh and Mike Magee have been sent packing, and starting defender Jeff Parke was lost in the expansion draft.  They were replaced by DominiC Oduro, Mike Petke, Macoumba Kandji (who joined the team on loan late in 2008), and Khano Smith, a player that most Revolution supporters would have volunteered to drive to the airport just to make sure he got out of town after Seattle selected him in the expansion draft.

These moves may suggest that the club is happy with its current composition, but they do not signal that the club is ready to move up and join teams like Houston Dynamo, Columbus Crew, and a few others in the league’s elite.  That club would have used the offseason to make the kind of personnel upgrades that would create some optimism among supporters as the team prepares for its move into the soccer-specific Red Bull Arena in 2010.  Specifically, bringing in a top-notch goalkeeper to push Danny Cepero (he of five first team appearances), a play-making midfielder or two to provide service for Angel, and a stalwart defender to anchor its nondescript back line.

Finally, while it seems to be on the proverbial “back burner” at the moment, there is always the possibility of a second NY team looming in the distance.  This could take a team away from one of the other potential expansion cities (Portland, Miami, Montreal, St. Louis, etc.), or, it could be the relocation of a poorly supported team (Kansas City and Dallas).  Whatever the case, a second team “in town” could create a rivalry the likes of which MLS has not seen to date, surpassing even the so-called SuperClasico between Chivas U.S.A. and the L.A. Galaxy.  A second team in New York could also provide MLS with an opportunity to not make the same mistakes it made when the wholly-generic “NY/NJ MetroStars” were created.  The team could be located and marketed to single borough (Brooklyn or Queens perhaps), given a name which harkens back to the city’s soccer past (Brooklyn Celtic, Queens Bohemians, Brookhattan, etc.), and actually be located within NYC!

Prediction: 5th place in the Eastern Conference
D.C. UNITED

2008:  11-15-4, 37 points, 6th in the Eastern Conference, missed playoffs.

Out: Ivan Guerrero (Colorado), Marcelo Gallardo (River Plate, Argentina)

In: Christian Gomez (Colorado), Mike Graczyk (Colorado), Rodney Wallace (draft/Maryland), Chris Pontius (draft/UCSB), Miloš Kočić (draft/Loyola), Lyle Adams (Wake Forest), Brandon     Barklage (St. Louis),

Overview: D.C. United won the the Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup for the second time in 2008, but beyond that, the season was not a success for the club that has been the most successful in MLS history.  After making the playoffs for five straight years, the team missed out in 2008, and after finishing no worse than second in the Eastern Conference every year since 2004, the team finished second-bottom in 2008.  Some of the blame could be placed upon the team’s commitments outside the league (CONCACAF Champions League, SuperLiga, and the U.S. Open Cup), but in the end, the team just isn’t what it was as recently as 2007.

What then, has the club done in an attempt to turn things around in 2009?  Sadly, they’ve done very little- if anything.  The only potential bright spot is the return of Christian Gomez from Colorado.  Gomez scored 39 goals in 97 matches in his previous stint with D.C., but could only manage 3 goals in 20 matches for a Colorado team that was, arguably, a better team in 2008.  This, combined with a mediocre 2009 draft class, aging players at skill positions (Moreno, Gomez, Martinez, etc.), and a large number of inexperienced players suggest that this might be the year that D.C. United bottoms out and has to confront the prospect of rebuilding the side for the future.

Thus, the question for D.C. United, is how to rebuild?  One option would be to build around the younger, better players (Doe, McTavish, Simms, Quaranta, etc.) and to give as much playing time as possible to those recently drafted in order to find out which players have the quality to play in MLS and which don’t.  Along with this, the club would probably also be well-served by selling off those older players who still have some value (Fred, Gomez, Moreno, Namoff, etc.) in order to bring in numbers in the hope that they will stumble onto a few decent players.

The other- riskier- option would be to hold on to the aging-but-talented group and trade away some of the younger players and/or draft picks in the hope that they could make one last run at the playoffs before having to rebuild the club.  All things being equal, this would be hard to do.  Factor in the salary cap, developmental players, designated players, etc. and it is probably impossible.

Unfortunately for D.C. United’s dedicated supporters, there have been no offseason moves that would lead one to believe that the club is moving toward either of these- or any other- options.  Chances are that any improvement from Toronto F.C. will see D.C. United fall into last place in the Eastern Conference with any hope of improvement being measured not in matches, but in years.  A sad fate for a club that was, for a long time, the class of the league.

Perhaps the possibility of a new stadium in Maryland will give the faithful some hope…

Prediction: 7th place in the Eastern Conference
KANSAS CITY WIZARDS

2008: 11-10-9, 42 points, 4th place in the Eastern Conference.

Out: Tyson Wahl (Seattle), Sasha Victorine (Chivas USA), Kerry Zavagnin (retirement)

In: Adam Cristman (New England), Santiago Hirsig (San Lorenzo, Argentina), Matt Besler (draft/Notre Dame), Doug de Martin (draft/Michigan State), Graham Zusi (draft/Maryland), Neal Kitson (draft/St. John’s), Akeem Priestley (draft/UConn)

Overview: Though they only moved up one place in the Eastern Conference standings from 2007 to 2008, the Wizards season could still be considered a success.  Coach Curt Onalfo led his somewhat anonymous side into the playoffs- a surprising, if not shocking- accomplishment.  His core players (Hartman, Conrad, Jewsbury, Wolff, Arnaud, etc.) are back for 2009 and this     bodes well for the team’s chances this season.  Kansas City’s offseason moves look to be among the best made by any MLS side.  They’ve lost nothing of value (no offense, Sasha) and picked up a goal scorer in Adam Cristman and an experienced midfielder in the Argentine Santiago Hirsig.  He does not bring with him the reputation of his countryman Guillermo Barros Schelotto, but he appears to be a solid acquisition.

Of the two, Cristman is probably the more interesting signing:  he has good size (which would compliment the smaller, more dynamic striker Josh Wolff), and at 24, he is still young and improving.  While in New England Cristman was rarely the Revolution’s first choice striker, spending most of his time playing garbage minutes or spelling either Taylor Twellman or Pat     Noonan.  Based on his goal/90 minutes ratio while in New England, the Wizards can expect him to produce 10-12 goals if they make him a regular part of the starting 11, perhaps more if playing on a regular basis allows him to be more consistent in his form.  Production of this kind would in all likelihood push veteran Claudio Lopez- and his six goals in 2008- to the substitute’s bench.

On the field, then, the Wizards appear to be well on their way toward challenging for an Eastern Conference championship- and perhaps a second MLS Cup?- within the next few seasons.  Off the field, however, the picture is not quite as rosy- and might be the worst in MLS.  After peaking four or five years ago, attendance is not just the among the lowest in the league, it is only slightly better than some of the best-supported in the first division of the USL.  Worse yet, the team is on schedule to move into its 20,000 seat “Hillcrest Road” stadium during the middle of the 2010 season.  (In the meantime, they will share CommunityAmerica Ballpark with baseball’s Kansas City T-Bones of the Northern League)  What, short of winning MLS cup this year, one must ask, is going to happen in the next eighteen months that will cause the team’s average attendance to double?  Hopefully things will fall into place for Kansas City.  Otherwise, they may continue to be looked upon- new stadium underway or not- as the most likely MLS franchise to be relocated in the immediate future.

Nevertheless, the Wizards are a solid side and should be able to challenge the New England Revolution for third place, while making sure to keep an eye on their rearview mirror for a resurgent Red Bull New York side.

Prediction: 4th in the Eastern Conference

COLUMBUS CREW

2008: 17-7-6, 57 points, 1st in the Eastern Conference

Out: Brad Evans (Seattle), Stefani Miglioranzi (Los Angeles)

In: Pat Noonan (Aalesunds FK, Norway), Paul Gerstenberger (draft/Boston College), Alex Grendi (draft/Penn), Chris Clements (draft/Tulsa)

Overview: 2008 was, of course, the year of the Crew.  They were far and away the best team- winning the Supporter’s Shield and MLS Cup- and they had far and away the best player in regular season and MLS MVP Guillermo Barros Schelotto.  These results had to be especially gratifying for a club that had finished 6th in the Eastern Conference in the three seasons prior to     their championship run.

Coming off their best ever campaign, Columbus smartly followed a time-honored maxim in their offseason dealings:  If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.  They lost one player to the expansion draft (Evans) and traded one away (Miglioranzi) for a draft pick, but otherwise it was what didn’t change that was most important.  The Crew were able to hold onto Barros Schelotto, fend off several European suitors trying to acquire the services of defender Chad Marshall, and they will have the services of Pat Noonan for a full season, rather than the third of a season he played for them in 2008.

Additionally, they still have the services of their tireless- and apparently ageless- captain Frankie Hejduk and a goalkeeper who has worked his way to the fringes of the USMNT in Will Hesmer.  Alejandro Moreno, Eddie Gaven, and Robbie Rogers round out the core of this very strong and very balanced team.  In short, and barring injury, the Crew should be at least as good as they were in 2008, and if they get the kind of full season that Pat Noonan was known for when he played in New England, they could be even better.  Any contributions from their 2009 draft class would simply be the icing on the proverbial cake.

The only area of concern for the Crew in 2009 are its fans.  They are among the best in the league…and also the worst.  The supporter’s groups the populate the Nordecke deliver some of the most intense support in all of MLS, of that there is no doubt.  However, there is also no doubt that there are at least a few individuals in the “North Corner” who cross the line of decency by throwing objects onto the pitch, and worse yet, engaging in racist abuse of opposing players.  To put a fine point on it- this simply cannot be tolerated.  The Crew’s fans should not be punished for the actions of a few cretins in their midst, but at the same time, if they fail to police their own, they get what they deserve.  Furthermore, there will come a point at which the club itself will share equally in the blame if they do not act to stop this nonsense immediately by banning the offenders from Crew matches.  There are many football traditions that the league, its clubs and fans should embrace, and this is not one of them.  It sullies the beautiful game and only gives unnecessary ammunition to those who would like nothing more than to see MLS fail.

Despite this, it is likely that the team’s performance on the pitch will lead them to be crowned as repeat champions in 2009.

Prediction: 1st in the Eastern Conference
CHICAGO FIRE

2008: 13-10-7, 46 points, 2nd in the Eastern Conference

Out: Stephen King (Seattle), Matt Pickens (Colorado), Diego Gutiérrez (retirement), Tomasz Frankowski (Jagiellonia Białystok/Poland)

In: Baggio Husidić (draft/Ill-Chicago), David Sias (draft/UC-Irvine), Jokull Elisabetarson (UNC-Greensboro), Richard Jata (draft/Campbell)

Overview: Like most of the better teams in MLS, the Chicago Fire did very little to change their team following the 2008 season.  They lost on player to retirement (Gutiérrez), one to the expansion draft (King), traded one away (Pickens), and declined to resign another (Frankowski).  The only players brought into the club were those acquired through the 2009 Super Draft.  Thus, the team enters 2009 with essentially the same team that was able to finish second in the Eastern Conference last year.

The big question facing the Fire in 2009 is whether or not this is their last chance to win MLS Cup with the team as currently comprised?  While Chicago has some talented young players in Chris Rolf, Wilman Conde, and Justin Mapp, the true class on in the side is aging, and aging quickly.  Cuauhtémoc Blanco is 36, not always fully-committed to the side, prone to losing his     temper, and is likely playing his last season in MLS- or anywhere else for that matter.  C.J. Brown is 33, a very physical player, the club’s all-time leader in minutes played, and was already considered by some to have “lost a step” even before he missed all but three matches through injury last year.  Brian McBride, as beloved, indestructible, and productive as he has proven to be in both MLS and the EPL, will turn 37 in the middle of what will probably be his penultimate season as a professional.  With this in mind, if the Fire cannot manage to win MLS Cup this year they will probably need a couple of additional years to retool before they can make another run at their second championship.

If this is the case, neither the league, the club, or its supporters should panic.  The Fire, as an organization, are already well ahead of the rest of the league:  they have their own soccer-specific stadium (Toyota Park), are among the best supported teams in MLS (averaging almost 16,000 fans per match over their history), and have a three-tiered developmental/youth system     that stretches across the entire Great Lakes region.  This goes a long way towards explaining how the Fire have only finished worst than third in their division/conference twice in their eleven year history and have only missed out on the playoffs once.  In short, if the Fire don’t win this year, the fans can rest assured that they are in no danger of becoming the MLS equivalent of Cubs fans.

Even with the services of Brian McBride for an entire season the point gap between Chicago and Columbus is probably too large for the Fire to overcome, but the team should be improved enough in 2009 that, should Columbus stumble, they will be there to make the most of the opportunity.  If that opportunity does present itself, and the Fire are able to take advantage of it, they will likely be the Eastern Conference representative in MLS Cup 2009, and with the East being the generally better of the two conferences, they would well win it.

Prediction: 2nd in the Eastern Conference